1999 Deja Vu? More Like 1995 Bull Market Redux!

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valueplays
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“Davidson” submits:

Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

We could be in the same conditions as 1995 just before the Internet Bubble. The Internet Bubble began with capital flows generated by the Community Reinvestment Act 1995 leading to the subprime crisis 14yrs later. This time Dodd-Frank has constricted mtg lending so much that we have been at half-pace the historical rate of 1.4mil Single-Family Starts.

Should we see regulation relief and the MCAI begin to hit a series of new cycle highs (currently 186), the shift to higher bank mtg lending could prove similar to the beginnings of 1995.

subprime crisis

subprime crisis

This could prove a huge rise to the SP500 and this time Value Stocks would be propelled to all time highs.

We need to watch the MCAI next several months to confirm.

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Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.