New Shiller White Paper – S&P 500 Sectors & CAPE :1872-2013VW Staff
Oliver D. Bunny and Robert J. Shiller May 9, 2014 H/T Meb Faber
Changing Times, Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the US Stock Market 1872-2013
We construct a price, dividend, and earnings series for the Industrials sector, the Utilities sector, and the Railroads sector from the beginning of the 1870s until the beginning of the year 2013 from primary sources. To infer about mispricings in the sector markets over more than a century, we investigate the forecasting power of the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) ratio for these sectors. With regard to the CAPE ratio . . .
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