Variant Perception – One More Thought: Recession Risk – ValueWalk Premium

Variant Perception – One More Thought: Recession Risk

Via BlueRidge

In our Annual Letter to investors we highlighted the collapse in the long-end curve as an indication of a maturing economic cycle (chart below):

Our friends at Variant Perception, recently shared a similar perspective:

A yield curve inversion has predicted every US recession since 1945, with only one false positive, in 1966 (although the false positive preceded a downturn in industrial production and a 25% decline in the DJIA). If you . . .

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