Predicting Stock Market Returns Using The Shiller CAPE

Predicting Stock Market Returns Using The Shiller CAPE by StarCapital

Literature on CAPE

Over the past 100 years, US stocks realized real capital gains of 7% per annum. No other asset class — neither bonds, cash, gold nor real estate — provided comparable return potential. Nevertheless, stock markets are subject to very strong fluctuations and the achievable returns depend largely on the time of investment. As such, the question for investors is how they can most accurately forecast long-term stock market developments.

In the case of individual stocks, the fundamental analysis of a company . . .


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