cognitive biases

Cognitive Biases In Market Forecasts

Cognitive Biases In Market Forecasts by Kenneth L. Fisher and Meir Statman - Fisher Investments

The frailty of forecasting.

Some days it seems as if the world is divided into two groups, those who forecast that the DJIA will soar to 36,000 very soon and those who forecast, with equal confidence, that it will plummet to 3,600. We argue that forecasters often exaggerate the reliability of their forecasts, and trace this exaggeration to the illusion of validity.

“People are prone to experience much confidence in . . .

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