Howard Marks

Latest Memo From Howard Marks: Go Figure!

Howard Marks memo for the month of November 2016.

Think back to just before last week’s election.  What did we know?

  • The polls were almost unanimous in saying Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by about 3%.
  • FiveThirtyEight, an analytical website whose forecasts had proved quite accurate in the two prior presidential elections, gave Clinton a 71% probability of winning, and almost everyone else was between 80% and 90%.
  • Clinton was favored in most of the “swing states” that would make the difference in the Electoral College.  Thus . . .

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