Latest Memo From Howard Marks: Go Figure!VW Staff
Howard Marks memo for the month of November 2016.
Think back to just before last week’s election. What did we know?
- The polls were almost unanimous in saying Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by about 3%.
- FiveThirtyEight, an analytical website whose forecasts had proved quite accurate in the two prior presidential elections, gave Clinton a 71% probability of winning, and almost everyone else was between 80% and 90%.
- Clinton was favored in most of the “swing states” that would make the difference in the Electoral College. Thus . . .
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