Yost Partners On Lessons From Superforecasters On Short Selling

For the third quarter, Yost Capital's Yost Partners and Yost Focused Long Fund returned 3.0% and 7.9% respectively, net of fees, compared to the MSCI World Index’s return of 4.9%. Year-to-date the funds are up 4.3% and 13.7% net compared to the MSCI World’s 5.6%.

Also see:

Yost Capital On Refining The Short Process
Within the pages of Yost’s third quarter letter to investors, Carson L. Yost the firm’s managing member discusses the short selling process of the group. To begin with, Carson dissects Yost’s short performance over the past 6.5 years.

 

Across different classifications of shorts, the fund has achieved vastly different success statistics. For example, with shorts based on the assumption that the business is a fraud, Yost has a commendable batting average of 77.8% 18 fraud shorts have generated $3.4 million in profits, by far the most profitable short classification.

However, shorts based on valuation alone have cost the fund $10.7 million and the batting average is less than 25.9%. Overall, across 346 shorts during a 6.5 year period, Yost has a batting average of 52.6% losing a total of $13.2 million for investors. Carson draws several conclusions from the above figures.

“There are a few interesting things to note from the chart above: 1) We have cumulatively lost our investors about thirteen million dollars shorting stocks since 2010. Not impressive; 2) Our “batting average” for shorting stocks is about 53%. At first glance this appears to be a little better than average. At second glance, it is worth noting that during the same time frame only 16% of the stocks in the Russell 3000 are actually down. So we did a decent job figuring out what stocks would be losers; 3) Our batting average betting against certain kinds of shorts such as “frauds” was high, while we had a deplorable record shorting other flavors such as valuation shorts; 4) Lastly, in some areas we had a high batting average but cumulative losses; in other areas we had a low batting average but good gains.”

SORRY!

This content is exclusively for paying members. Access all of our content on including years of timeless investment news and in depth analysis for only a few dollars a month by signing up here while also supporting quality content and journalism, or learn more about our premium content here

If you are subscribed and having an account error please clear cache and then cookies if that does not work email support@valuewalk.com and we will get back to you as quick as humanly possible


Saved Articles
X
TextTExtLInkTextTExtLInk

Are you a smart investor? Join tens of thousands of sophisticated investor reading our authoritative free newsletter

* indicates required


Congrats! Are you a smart person?

We have an exclusive targeted for being a sophisticated and loyal reader.

Sign up today and get three months free

Use coupon code vip19 or click on the button below

Limited time offer only ENDS 9/130/2019 or after next 25 subscribers take advantage whichever comes first – please do not share this discount with others

 

0