type 2 error Type 1 error low terminal rate Economic Sentiment Janet Yellen Fed Federal Reserve and if you can add also QE quantitative easing interest rates ZIRP rising rates treasuries Ben Bernanke macro Helicopter Money

Macquarie: Central Banks Extending Kondratieff's Autumn

There is a growing theory that relatively predictable market cycles are coming to an end thanks to central bank quantitative stimulus. Macquarie analysts Viktor Shvets and Chetan Seth, reviewing Kondratieff wave theory, note that the system that has generally helped analysts model economic waves might be muted in the quantitative era. Central banks, in creating a perpetual  autumn, might be creating a "mop up" mission that cannot yet be modeled.

Kondratieff wave theory has four seasons . . .


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