Many oil and gas analysts and hedge funds have been wrong-footed by the oil barrel prices over the past five years. First, analysts failed to call the dramatic impact shale supply would have on the market. Then following the crash, analysts mistakenly called for a V-shaped rebound.

So far, the oil price recovery has been muted. Fundamentals are only just starting to recover, but it's going to be some time before the supply/demand balance is back to levels that could support $100 a barrel oil . . .

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