Jamie Dimon: Blockchain is real; Fannie Must Be Protected From PoliticsJacob Wolinsky
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the SALT deduction, President Trump, bitcoin, the outlook for M&A and Federal Reserve policy. Videos and some text below
[00:00:00] What would would a nationalization of Fannie and Freddie do in terms of mortgage business. That would be a positive for the banks if we saw change. Would you expect the change coming out of here.
[00:00:10] I think it's really hard to do. I need you to see something to me the important is not whether Fannie or Freddie are national or public it's what their policies are and that they stayed consistent in real. And if you wanted to amortizing through your mortgage you need some something you're Freddie. Otherwise they will disappear. So I think it merge are going to have it. We have one two or ten is not as important as public or private loans. But it is important that it be protected from political interference because when Fannie and Freddie return to be uses for politics create more affordable homes don't like that. That was part of not only poor because the catastrophe even in the face of this very strong economy.
[00:00:47] They took away the soft deduction. You're in New York or you live in New York.
[00:00:50] You lost the ability to deduct state and local taxes was that the right move.
[00:00:57] It's a hard question. The answer is yes it shouldn't. I always look at question is what should have been it should never have been there. It should never have been there. And the American public. People know this. 80 percent of the cash benefit goes to make over five thousand dollars a year. Eighty percent. And something like 70 or 80 percent goes to five states. You know and of course in New York my state which I love that we send more money to the federal government. But of course that is supposed to be true of a very successful economy here that was not made that was meant to be part of the federal system. So now how they phase it out. You know remember by increasing the standard deduction having the ten dollars. I haven't seen real analysis yet 70 percent of people get to keep it. It's the 30 percent making or two or three or four thousand don't get to keep it. And so I think it does create a burden for New York. But you know the New York City and New York State can help you down then maybe they'll change it at one point when I was yes was the right thing to do. Answer that question first before you start yelling and screaming about what's good for me. If you're a patriot you know and so we have all these flaws in the system as people protect their own special interests which I think is it's a huge mistake that is going to be more expensive for you and for me and for others in New York.
[00:02:05] But it was the right thing. Yeah.
[00:02:07] Members of the top tax rate. So I'm going to say you know some Kaputt percent from that and after a couple of percent more even more from that.
[00:02:14] But that is what it is the first business president I remember you were asked recently what you thought his tenure would be. You said another three and a half years providing that the Democrats have a real candidate which is just the way I wish and said it to my probabilistically vote so to.
[00:02:31] They are going to run Kerans and that's not my job. My job is to have a good public policy done get the economy growing to help finance cities and stuff like that. I am not a political expert I know no more about that. You do that.
[00:02:44] So you don't know if he's going to be a one term president or not. I know. Of course not. Do you want to run for it.
[00:02:49] No. But of course the other thing about the Democrats is you know they they will not have a chance. My they don't have a strong centrist pro business pro free enterprise person. You know the American public is not clamoring for more government. You know they were angry about the Great Recession they kind of blame banks they blame Washington. But they're also angry at the bureaucracy. Anger about the V.A. the DMZ. They're angry about the trillions of dollars spent that didn't work. Verst pet peeve pet projects for people. And so both sides are right. We've done a lot of things in America that didn't work and we haven't analyzed it said OK let's get rid of this one. It didn't work. Let's try something different so hopefully that will be done.
[00:03:27] You're right you're right. There's no centrist candidate. What about Oprah.
[00:03:31] You know I didn't see the speech I heard she did a great job and I had a point.
[00:03:35] Let me ask you about bitcoin because that was another famous comment that you made that it's a fraud.
[00:03:39] Now we see it which I regret making the block chain is real. You could have Krypto dollars and yen and stuff like that. See Ogio look at everyone individually. The Bitcoin that was always to me is was what the governments are going to feel about Bitcoin it gets really big. And I just have a different appeal to people and I'm not interested that much the subject also I'll leave that to everybody else to figure out what they really want to do.
[00:04:02] I think it's funny that a yes or a study that millennials say 30 percent of millennials say they'd rather invest in bitcoin than bombs and stock. I don't know. I understand where you sit on it. Real quick on this. I have a daughter who bought two bitcoins in. Yeah I mean that's the thing young people are into bitcoin.
[00:04:19] So but that's nothing she's a genius because it went way up with what I.
[00:04:25] Real quick on markets here with this tax plan and the savings for corporate America. Would you expect the deal flow to continue and pick up in 18 an IPO. Obviously that was a slow start this past year.
[00:04:37] I think so. I mean we see a lot of media chatter and dialogue activity. You know companies Warner most companies want to grow and expand and acquire and build and during the. That's mostly natural state the natural state is to buy back stock and dividends. And so I think you will see that having a competitive tax rate are going to probably enhance that a little bit.
[00:04:57] Jamie any thoughts on rates and the fact that shallow I mean the 10 years of constant quandary.
[00:05:03] Look they've been lower much longer than people think. Both the short run the tenure and they've gone up slower than people thought. I think there's going to be point time facilely facilely people think know that now that inflection point but it wouldn't surprise me if that's sometime the next six months. But if it's for good reason like a strong American economy that's OK.
[00:05:22] And you said mentioned a minute ago about the rest of the world growing. Are there areas that are of particular interest to you looking at Japan Europe emerging markets so China is accomplishing the 6 to 6 1/2.
[00:05:35] That's a huge economy. But the second largest economy the world effect too is Europe. And none of us would have expected Europe with all these issues to be growing at 3 percent. And it is either of long term structural issues those of leadership today. This this new French president is young he's dynamic. He wants to fix the problems. He's pro business and pro enterprise. He wants to help his countrymen. But you know he uniquely realizes how can help your countrymen by damaging the economy. Those two things don't go hand in hand. So Brazil is completely turned Japan. You know it's been almost zero growth for 15 or 20 years and now it's close to two. So those are surprises and we should be grateful for those.