Seth Klarman

Seth Klarman: “Most Investments Are Dependent On Outcomes That Cannot Be Accurately Foreseen”

Much has been written about the best way to calculate the present and future values of a business for investment. But as Seth Klarman points out in his book – Margin of Safety, the reality is:

Klarman Q1 on

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“Even if the present could somehow be perfectly understood, most investments are dependent on outcomes that cannot be accurately foreseen.”

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See 2017 Hedge Fund Letters.

Seth Klarman

Klarman goes on add there are three safeguards that investors can put into place to protect against decreases in the value of potential investments:

It would be a serious mistake to think that all the facts that describe a particular investment are or could be known. Not only may questions remain unanswered; all the right questions may not even have been asked. Even if the present could somehow be perfectly understood, most investments are dependent on outcomes that cannot be accurately foreseen.

Even if everything could be known about an investment, the complicating reality is that business values are not carved in stone. Investing would be much simpler if business values did remain constant while stock prices revolved predictably around them like the planets around the sun. If you cannot be certain of value, after all, then how can you be certain that you are buying at a discount? The truth is that you cannot.

The possibility of sustained decreases in business value is a dagger at the heart of value investing (and is not a barrel of laughs for other investment approaches either). Value investors place great faith in the principle of assessing value and then buying at a discount. If value is subject to considerable erosion, then how large a discount is sufficient?

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Should investors worry about the possibility that business value may decline? Absolutely. Should they do anything about it? There are three responses that might be effective.

First, since investors cannot predict when values will rise or fall, valuation should always be performed conservatively, giving considerable weight to worst-case liquidation value as well as to other methods.

Second, investors fearing deflation could demand a greater than usual discount between price and underlying value in order to make new investments or to hold current positions. This means that normally selective investors would probably let even more pitches than usual go by.

Finally, the prospect of asset deflation places a heightened importance on the time frame of investments and on the presence of a catalyst for the realization of underlying value. In a deflationary environment, if you cannot tell whether or when you will realize underlying value, you may not want to get involved at all. If underlying value is realized in the near-term directly for the benefit of shareholders, however, the longer-term forces that could cause value to diminish become moot.

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