A Recession Indicator For Independent Thinkers, Part 1DanNevins
Last month we took sides in the ongoing debate about the Great Yield Curve Scare—we argued that the curve hasn’t flattened enough to deliver a strong recession signal at this point in time. We showed that the recent flattening is similar to those that occurred at various stages of the last nine business-cycle expansions, but usually before the midpoints. In other words, history places today’s curve in an early- or mid-cycle position, not late-cycle as . . .
This content is exclusively for paying members. Access all of our content on including years of timeless investment news and in depth analysis for only a few dollars a month by signing up here while also supporting quality content and journalism, or learn more about our premium content here
If you are subscribed and having an account error please clear cache and then cookies if that does not work email email@example.com and we will get back to you as quick as humanly possible