Ray Dalio – There Won’t Be A Trade War Anytime Soon “Because Of The Wisdom Of Chinese Leaders”Guest Post
Yesterday I was in Beijing and once again I was inspired. I have been a part of the evolution there for over 30 years and have continuously been inspired by the system that has evolved so well to produce remarkable people who produce remarkable results. People who have repeatedly and wrongly expected the collapse of the Chinese economy while it has progressively become more revitalized have accused me of not being objective in assessing China’s prospects and leaders. They don’t understand.
I wish you could know the policy makers and issues the way I know them to form your own views because there are so many misunderstandings due to lack of contact. Of course these leaders have challenges and have to make difficult choices. However, to the extent you trust my honesty and my judgement, please believe that these policy makers are highly principled, wise, and have great historical perspectives and competence — and, for these reasons, they are committed to having no war of any sort because they understand that one bit of war can easily lead to another and these bits of conflict can easily grow beyond anyone’s control and lead to a horrendous war that is beyond one’s imagination.
Of course there is competition and there are differences in values and approaches, and of course there will be tensions and the Chinese cannot be pushed past a breaking point. But, most fundamentally, there is broad awareness of the perils of Thucydides’s Trap (described here) and a commitment to evolving well without war.