Monetary Base

Charts That Matter – Online sales In India Grew 70% CAGR 2012-2017 And Other Important Charts F

1. When you have 1.3 billion people with huge under penetration, then any chart can be made to look Bullish . What analysts need to look at is Per capita GDP because that will determine the extent of growth. India’s per capita GDP today is less than that of Phillipines and Morrocco and just ahead of Dijibouti. 2012-17 in India , online Ecommerce started along with explosion in Mobile phones and aggresion in consumption financing by banks and NBFC’s. It would be foolish to extrapolate this growth into future.

Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

So hold your horses, if we cant grow incomes than consumption will also not grow.

Monetary Base

2. IF we take the US monetary base, and add to it the reserves deposited by foreign central banks at the Fed, we get figure for the World Monetary Base. From this aggregate, we can get a rough idea of the pace of base money creation around the world, either through direct intervention by the Fed in the US banking system, or indirectly through US dollar accumulation by foreign central banks. When the WMB is growing,we can be relatively confident about the future nominal growth of the global economy. And when it’s contracting, it makes very good sense to worry about a recession.As the chart above shows, it is contracting now. So, based on the experience of the past 45 years, it seems likely that the world is entering its seventh international dollar liquidity crisis since 1973.

Monetary Base

3. Given softening in housing, and need for lower mortgage rates to help restore affordability and positive housing momentum, BOFA thinks the chances are good that this is a “3 strikes you’re out” situation and that rates now have decent downside potential in months ahead but it seems everybody is bearish on US bonds.

Monetary Base

4. All Parabolic rise fail without exception and this one will also fail. The chart is stock prices of Amazon and HDFC Bank. Amazon is already among top 5 holding in almost all US diversified Mutual Funds and ETF. HDFC Bank is also in top 5 among most diversified and large cap mutual fund. That means you as an investor is alredy betting on 5-10% of your investment (depending upon the weight your portfolios are holding) invested in these stocks and hoping that this will continue into future

Monetary Base

Article by Ritesh Jain, World Out Of Whack


Saved Articles

The Life and Career of Charlie Munger

Charlie is more than just Warren Buffett’s friend and Berkshire Hathaway’s Vice Chairman – Buffett has actually credited him with redefining how he looks at investing. Now you can learn from Charlie firsthand via this incredible ebook and over a dozen other famous investor studies by signing up below:

  • Learn from the best and forever change your investing perspective
  • One incredible tidbit of knowledge after another in the page-turning masterpiece of a book
  • Discover the secrets to Charlie’s success and how to apply it to your investing
Never Miss A Story!
Subscribe to ValueWalk Newsletter. We respect your privacy.

Congrats! Are you a smart person?

We have an exclusive targeted & limited time offer for being a sophisticated and loyal reader.

ValueWalkPremium is a website and newsletter on the latest industry news much of which is not in the public domain and obtained via our sources.

We also have 10 years of resources on how to use this information to better your investment process.

Sign up for  today and get our exclusive content for 40% off. This is our second biggest discount ever!!

Use coupon code VIP20 or click on the button below

Limited time offer only ENDS 3/31/2020 or after the next 45 subscribers take advantage whichever comes first – please do not share this discount with others