“Glut” Or “Seasonal Build” ?valueplays
Suddenly the headlines seem to have turned to ‘oil over-supply’ when just 4wks ago they implied ‘short-supply’ vs demand. The data reflects the seasonal fall slow-down in refining to change to winter fuel catalysts while imports continue to come in giving us a short period of inventory build till refineries restart. Inventory builds always occur during seasonal catalyst changes.
The trends for energy consumption remain in place We even have a new high in Baker Hughes Rig Count after a 4mos period of being flat. Global economic demand has been steadily higher since 2009. The natural gas exports report is in 2wks and we should see a continuation of that trend which is quite strong as US nat gas prices are currently the cheapest globally.
Give us a couple of weeks and prices should be higher and the talk turned to ‘short-supply’ again.