Retail Sales, Personal Income And Recessionsvalueplays
There are several indicators which provide an early indication of economic peaks. None of them are signaling a peak is at hand. Their history suggests the current market pessimism is a significant ‘Head-Fake’ by those who 1) believe that price trends reveal all that is necessary for predicting economic trends and 2) market cycles have specific timeframes and a top is due. What is missed in the shallow price-trend approach is that Real Retail Sales and Personal Income have to first rollover before we see economic slowing which is then followed by a market top, not the other way around.
The data for Real Retail Sales and Personal Income make it certain that no signs of a rollover is in process. Looks like we should have a good 2019 economically with market prices to follow.
Happy New Year!