The Predictive Power Of Active ShareABW Insights
Active Share is a popular metric that purports to measure portfolio activity. Though Active Share’s fragility and ease of manipulation are increasingly well-understood, there has been no research on its predictive power. This paper quantifies the predictive power of Active Share and finds that, though Active Share is a statistically significant predictor of the performance difference between portfolio and benchmark (there is a relationship between Active Share and how active a fund is relative to a given benchmark), it is a weak one. The relationship explains only about 5% of the variation in activity across U.S . . .
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