S&P 500 Value Investor Index

S&P 500 Value Investor Index Update

“Davidson” submits:

Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

In this update, the trend of the 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE was raised from 1.7% to 1.85% and the SP500 was projected forward to Dec 2020 at a 65% Premium to the Value Investor Index. At some point investor psychology becomes speculative which leads to a market ending top. History guides to a 65%-100% premium to the Value Investor Index. In this update, inflation is set at 1.85% and the projection extended to Dec 2020.

S&P 500 Value Investor Index

S&P 500 Value Investor Index

At 65% premium to the Value Investor index with 1.85% inflation, the SP500 would be $4,300. Market psychology could be higher or lower than this, but if current administration’s policy initiatives lead to greater mortgage availability and lower global tariffs, the SP500 could rise higher than the $4,300 potential indicated.

Caveats: Higher inflation would price the SP500 lower but the impact of ‘The Recency Effect’ after a longer period of economic expansion than many expect today could very easily spike the SP500 to the $5,000-$6,000 range if the expansion lasts another 5yrs.

Saved Articles

The Life and Career of Charlie Munger

Charlie is more than just Warren Buffett’s friend and Berkshire Hathaway’s Vice Chairman – Buffett has actually credited him with redefining how he looks at investing. Now you can learn from Charlie firsthand via this incredible ebook and over a dozen other famous investor studies by signing up below:

  • Learn from the best and forever change your investing perspective
  • One incredible tidbit of knowledge after another in the page-turning masterpiece of a book
  • Discover the secrets to Charlie’s success and how to apply it to your investing
Never Miss A Story!
Subscribe to ValueWalk Newsletter. We respect your privacy.

Are you an intelligent investor?

ValueWalkPremium is a website and newsletter for smart investors like yourself. We focus on the latest hedge fund industry news much of which is not in the public domain and obtained via our sources.

We also have 10 years of resources on how to use this information to better your investment process.

Sign up for  today for only a few dollars a day and get a 3 day no obligation trial with a targeted 20% discount coupon code.

Cancel anytime during trial and you are never charged.

Limited time offer: For first 50 subscribers