(1) We can have a deal with China within 4 months (by December 15?).
(2) We had an inverted yield curve for ā10 minutesā.Ā In 2007 we had an inverted yield curve for 3 months. Recessions follow inverted yield curves by 300 ā 500 days.
(3) Presidents tend to not get re-elected when a recession precedes the election.Ā Only McKinley was re-elected in a recession.
(4) Markets do not like uncertainty. If a deal is reached with China adding certainty to the economic outlook, the markets will respond well.
(5) A deal can be reached with China on (a) China purchasing more from the U.S. (agricultural products), (b) U.S. firms can gain increased access to China and intellectual property being addressed, but (c) Chinaās 2025 goals with government support of AI and high-tech businesses will not be included in a deal.
(6) Recessions have occurred every 7 years on average in the U.S.Ā We have gone 10 years since the last recession. We will eventually have another recession.
(7) U.S economy is currently in good shape.Ā He does not see a recession in the near future.
(8) Although the U.S. has low interest rates, Europe and Japan have negative interest rates.
David I Kass
Clinical Associate Professor, Department of Finance
Ph.D., Harvard University
Robert H. Smith School of Business
4412 Van Munching Hall
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742-1815
Phone: 301-405-9683
Email: dkass@rhsmith.umd.edu (link sends e-mail)
Dr. David Kass has published articles in corporate finance, industrial organization, and health economics. He currently teaches Advanced Financial Management and Business Finance, and is the Faculty Champion for the Accelerated Finance Fellows. Prior to joining the faculty of the Smith School in 2004, he held senior positions with the Federal Government (Federal Trade Commission, General Accounting Office, Department of Defense, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis). Dr. Kass has recently appeared on Bloomberg TV, CNBC, PBS Nightly Business Report, Maryland Public Television, Business News Network TV (Canada), Fox TV, American Public Media's Marketplace Radio, and WYPR Radio (Baltimore), and has been quoted on numerous occasions by Bloomberg News and The Wall Street Journal, where he has primarily discussed Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. He has also launched a Smith School āWarren Buffettā blog. Dr. Kass has accompanied MBA students on trips to Omaha for private meetings with Warren Buffett, and Finance Fellows to Berkshire Hathawayās annual meetings. He is an officer of the Harvard Business School Club of Washington, DC, and is a member of the investment and budget committees of a local nonprofit organization. Dr. Kass received a Smith School āTop 15% Teaching Awardā for the 2009-2010 academic year.
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