(1) We can have a deal with China within 4 months (by December 15?).
(2) We had an inverted yield curve for “10 minutes”. In 2007 we had an inverted yield curve for 3 months. Recessions follow inverted yield curves by 300 – 500 days.
(3) Presidents tend to not get re-elected when a recession precedes the election. Only McKinley was re-elected in a recession.
(4) Markets do not like uncertainty. If a deal is reached with China adding certainty to the economic outlook, the markets will respond well.
(5) A deal can be reached with China on (a) China purchasing more from the U.S. (agricultural products), (b) U.S. firms can gain increased access to China and intellectual property being addressed, but (c) China’s 2025 goals with government support of AI and high-tech businesses will not be included in a deal.
(6) Recessions have occurred every 7 years on average in the U.S. We have gone 10 years since the last recession. We will eventually have another recession.
(7) U.S economy is currently in good shape. He does not see a recession in the near future.
(8) Although the U.S. has low interest rates, Europe and Japan have negative interest rates.
David I Kass
Clinical Associate Professor, Department of Finance
Ph.D., Harvard University
Robert H. Smith School of Business
4412 Van Munching Hall
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742-1815
Phone: 301-405-9683
Email: [email protected] (link sends e-mail)
Dr. David Kass has published articles in corporate finance, industrial organization, and health economics. He currently teaches Advanced Financial Management and Business Finance, and is the Faculty Champion for the Accelerated Finance Fellows. Prior to joining the faculty of the Smith School in 2004, he held senior positions with the Federal Government (Federal Trade Commission, General Accounting Office, Department of Defense, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis). Dr. Kass has recently appeared on Bloomberg TV, CNBC, PBS Nightly Business Report, Maryland Public Television, Business News Network TV (Canada), Fox TV, American Public Media's Marketplace Radio, and WYPR Radio (Baltimore), and has been quoted on numerous occasions by Bloomberg News and The Wall Street Journal, where he has primarily discussed Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. He has also launched a Smith School “Warren Buffett” blog. Dr. Kass has accompanied MBA students on trips to Omaha for private meetings with Warren Buffett, and Finance Fellows to Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meetings. He is an officer of the Harvard Business School Club of Washington, DC, and is a member of the investment and budget committees of a local nonprofit organization. Dr. Kass received a Smith School “Top 15% Teaching Award” for the 2009-2010 academic year.
Key highlights for July 2017:
Get The Full Capital Allocation Series in PDF
Get the entire 4-part series on capital allocation in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on... read more
Mawer Funds first quarter 2015 discussion paper titled, "The Unfathomable Is Not Impossible."
I was six or seven when I first came across Alice Through the Looking-Glass in one of... read more
Mario Gabelli's first job was shining shoes in the Bronx when he was six years old. By thirteen, he was already making his own investments in the stock market... read more
Implied volatility levels throughout Europe and China, where in part a stimulus-fueled rally has created a higher degree of upside deviation relative to downside volatility, the U.S. markets have... read more
LONDON — September 8, 2015 — Although August was a roller coaster ride for investors, ETFs/ETPs listed globally gathered US$20.8 billion in net new assets, marking their 19th consecutive... read more
It was a disappointing second quarter for PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE:PEP) and WellPoint, Inc. (NYSE:WLP) as the companies saw profit declines and missed estimates, respectively.
Take a look.
PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE:PEP): PepsiCo's second-quarter earnings declined 21... read more
Citron Research has a new sell recommendation on Organovo Holdings Inc (NYSE: ONVO), which can be viewed below.
At the present moment, Organovo (NYSEMKT:ONVO) is a money-losing highly speculative biotech company which has... read more
Altalis Capital Management, a well sepected small long/short equity hedge fund, outperformed with a 2.2% return in the first quarter of 2016, according to a quarterly update reviewed by... read more
There are a number of odd correlation divergences taking place in the gold market, many of which may redress themselves in the form of mean reversion if historical patterns... read more
When the book “Flash Boys” burst onto the financial scene in early 2014, creating a storm of controversy over “rigged markets” trading everything from Google, Apple and Facebook to... read more
