It is useful to note that the Value Investor Index does not adjust w/rates. It is based on long-term SP500 EPS and the Natural Rate(based on long-term economic fundamentals). The Natural Rate is based on the long-term Real Private GDP trend and a 12mo inflation measure. Many are using the 10yr Treas rate as a capitalization rate which comes from Greenspan’s Fed Model of years ago, but this would have the SP500 priced closer to ~$7,000 -$10,000 with rates 1.65% and a higher level of current earnings as opposed to the 4.94% of the Natural Rate using the historical long-term SP500 EPS median. The basis of the Value Investor Index is that it takes market psychology which has driven 10yr rates towards record lows out of the calculation.
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis.
His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.
This week it's Emerging Markets sovereign CDS (Credit Default Swaps). The reason why I think this chart is really worth paying attention to is that after reaching a record... read more
These are trying times for investors who want safe assets. Vanguard had to temporarily close its Treasury money market fund as a result of record inflows. With Treasury Bills... read more
BP Is an integrated oil and gas company, and the dividend yield has risen to a well-above-average 6.6%. This article reviews the reasons the yield has gotten high, the... read more
Putting International Small-Caps On the Map
Our goal in this paper is to provide an introduction for asset allocators to the international small-cap asset class by detailing its attributes in... read more
Great article via Barron's below is a short excerpt.
Howard Marks' Crystal Ball Proved Accurate by Barron's
Ten years ago, veteran investor and writer Howard Marks sent a contrarian -- and prescient... read more
What is going on at Herbalife? Earnings are coming up - so the timing seems odd... See Linkedin which still shows him as current at Herbalife
H/T Scott Wapner
BRISTOL, Conn.--(BUSINESS... read more
Statoil ASA (NYSE:STO) has signed an agreement with OMV to hand over the stakes in seven exploration licenses to OMV. Five of these licenses are located in the Faroe... read more
Safeway Inc. (NYSE:SWY) shares soared 27 percent in after hours trading as the company announced that they have entered into an agreement to sell their Canadian operations. The company plans to... read more
Absolute Return Partners' letter title "A Brave New World"
“The deepest sin against the human mind is to believe things without evidence.”
Aldous Huxley
In the the last two Absolute Return Letters... read more
A strong and persistent trend is taking place in commodities, a July 31 report from Capital Economics notes, and nothing is likely the change the “current malaise,” and this... read more
