Trade War Tariffs

Which States Could Suffer The Most From Trade War Tariffs?

As the U.S. continues to impose tariffs on goods from China, and vice versa, both countries are raising the stakes of the ongoing trade war. The new 15% tariff on Chinese goods just kicked in, and Asian markets are already feeling the effects. But the U.S. economy is also affected by these ever-escalating tariffs. Our newest visualization takes a closer look at how much each state would be affected by export tariffs imposed by China.

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Trade War Tariffs

  • Throughout the trade war from the past year, the U.S. imposed $250 billion in tariffs on imported Chinese products. China retaliated with $110 billion in tariffs against American exports.
  • In absolute numbers, states on the West Coast, Gulf Coast, and Mid-Atlantic region stand to lose the most money as a result of these export tariffs. By contrast, states in the Midwest and Great Plains stand to lose the least amount of money.
  • Some state economies rely more on exports than others. For example, exports comprise 26.7% of Louisiana’s economy, compared to only 0.7% of Hawaii’s economy.
  • According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, half of all manufacturing jobs in the U.S. are dependent on exports, and one in three acres of American farmland is used for selling agricultural products to other countries.

The data from this visualization comes from a few different sources. We used calculations from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to show the possible cost of tariffs, the Bureau of Economic Analysis to determine each state’s GDP, and the International Trade Commission to find the value of each state’s exports. In the map above, the color of each state represents the impact that export tariffs could have on the state, with lighter shades of pink representing lower impact and darker shades of red or brown representing greater impact. In addition, we used yellow circles to illustrate how much each state’s economy relies on exports; larger circles correspond to a higher percentage of exports as a percentage of GDP.

Top 10 States with Largest Possible Impact from Tariffs

  1. California – $13.4 billion
    2. Texas – $10.6 billion
    3. Washington – 7.5 billion
    4. Louisiana – $7.1 billion
    5. Illinois – $5 billion
    6. South Carolina – $3.9 billion
    7. Alabama – $3.4 billion
    8. Ohio – $3.2 billion
    9. New York – $3.1 billion
    10. Pennsylvania – $2.7 billion

The effect of this new chapter of the trade war is, as usual, spilling over to more markets and commodities, such as oil and Big Tech. The tariffs will affect more than just the large markets. In addition, consumers will note the effect of the new tariffs, since many everyday products will increase in price. Economists predict that American households will spend an extra $1,000 a year as a result of these tariffs.

The U.S. and China have agreed to hold high-level talks in October to negotiate better economic conditions. This announcement is already having a positive impact on the stock market, but the question of whether or not tariffs will actually be reduced is still up in the air.

What do you think about the effect of tariffs on the U.S. economy? Please let us know in the comments.

Data: Table 1.1

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