NBER calling Recession beginning Feb 2020? Weird. No evidence for this call in Feb. but for inverted yield curve. Employment was rising, debt obligations had very low delinquencies, Retail Sales, Job Openings and every other measure was quite strong with no signals of weakness typical of pending slowing. The only issue was an inverted yield curve due to algorithms and foreign capital seeking safe haven in US 10yr Treas driving rates to invert vs. T-Bill.
Appears that NBER’s primary focus is the yield curve not the whole package of economic indicators available.
I think they are wrong. Was their politics to call a recession prior to COVID-19 so that Trump gets blame? Sounds like it to me.
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis.
His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.
Lumber - Worth It's Weight In Gold: Offense And Defense In Active Portfolio Management by SSRN
H/T Abnormal Returns
Charles V. Bilello
Pension Partners, LLC
Michael A. Gayed
Pension Partners, LLC
May 8,... read more
Barry Rosenstein is putting his money in Japan Airlines Co Ltd (TYO:9201) and Oil States International, Inc. (NYSE:OIS), Kelly Bit reports for Bloomberg. Jana Partners sold all its gold assets in February,... read more
In December a hedge fund manager knee deep into “credit and securitized products” – read: sometimes illiquid non-cleared exposure -- noted in a letter it was investing among a... read more
“So the reason why we raised interest rates [in late 1999-2000] is because—generally is because we see inflation as moving up—or, in danger of moving up significantly, and we... read more
All Asian markets fell in 2018
In 1H19, Hong Kong was the strongest performer in local currency terms, and for foreign investors, Thailand was the best
Overall, Asian... read more
The hedge fund SQN Investors seeded by David Einhorn opened for business on September 2, Simone Foxman reports in BloombergBriefs. SQN Investors will be focusing on small and mid-cap technology... read more
Jonathon Jacobson Ira Sohn coverage brought to you by ValueWalk.
Jonathon Jacobson is the Founder, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Executive Officer of Highfields Capital Management LP, an $11 billion... read more
Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek (find him on Twitter here) Q2 letter to investors. Below is a brief excerpt followed by the full letter in scribd:
Mark Yusko: Markets gripped in... read more
Instability in global credit markets is the subject of Goldman Sachs’ March 2 Top of Mind, global macro research report. And one of the markets Goldman looks at in... read more