NBER Says Recession Started in February….Data Contradictsvalueplays
I agree 100% with Davidson. There were ZERO signs of recession in February…..zero
NBER calling Recession beginning Feb 2020? Weird. No evidence for this call in Feb. but for inverted yield curve. Employment was rising, debt obligations had very low delinquencies, Retail Sales, Job Openings and every other measure was quite strong with no signals of weakness typical of pending slowing. The only issue was an inverted yield curve due to algorithms and foreign capital seeking safe haven in US 10yr Treas driving rates to invert vs. T-Bill.
Appears that NBER’s primary focus is the yield curve not the whole package of economic indicators available.
I think they are wrong. Was their politics to call a recession prior to COVID-19 so that Trump gets blame? Sounds like it to me.