NBER calling Recession beginning Feb 2020? Weird. No evidence for this call in Feb. but for inverted yield curve. Employment was rising, debt obligations had very low delinquencies, Retail Sales, Job Openings and every other measure was quite strong with no signals of weakness typical of pending slowing. The only issue was an inverted yield curve due to algorithms and foreign capital seeking safe haven in US 10yr Treas driving rates to invert vs. T-Bill.
Appears that NBER’s primary focus is the yield curve not the whole package of economic indicators available.
I think they are wrong. Was their politics to call a recession prior to COVID-19 so that Trump gets blame? Sounds like it to me.
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis.
His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.
Lumber - Worth It's Weight In Gold: Offense And Defense In Active Portfolio Management by SSRN
H/T Abnormal Returns
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