It May Be Different This Time – ValueWalk Premium

It May Be Different This Time

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Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more


I am weary of this famous quote from Sir John Templeton: “The four most dangerous words in investing are, ‘This time it’s different.’”

It certainly feels different this time. Acknowledging that difference will enhance relationships with your clients.

Over one million Americans are filing for unemployment benefits every week. Over 28 million people claimed benefits from all programs for the week ending August 1, 2020.

Major cities are seeing a huge outflow of residents. Residential apartments are at all-time high vacancy rates. Almost 55% of businesses closed on Yelp have shut for good. The U.S. is bracing for an “avalanche” of evictions.

A key coronavirus model is predicting nearly 300,000 deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19 by early December 2020.

Racial tension and violent protests continue to plague some major cities.

The upcoming election has polarized Americans in a way few have experienced.

Oh, and an asteroid is zooming in our direction.

Naturally your clients are concerned. There’s stunning evidence that a third of Americans now show signs of clinical anxiety or depression.

Telling them it’s no different this time will not be comforting.

Toxic positivity

By blindly espousing the “it’s not different this time” mantra, you may be creating more stress, which is the opposite of what you intend. According to experts, too much “forced positivity” can be toxic.

Of course, we want to believe everything will turn out alright. Perhaps an effective treatment or a vaccine will be found and life will return to normal.

But putting a positive spin on what’s obviously a dire situation trivializes legitimate concerns and can be counter-productive. As one expert correctly noted: “…promulgating messages of positivity denies a very real sense of despair and hopelessness, and they only serve to alienate and isolate those who are already struggling.”

Read the full article here by Dan Solin, Advisor Perspectives

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