In his 2014 Shareholder Letter, Liberty’s John Malone discussed a number of topics including finding opportunities in the ‘ambiguous middle’. Here’s an excerpt from the letter:
Changes in technology and consumer behavior have always had a meaningful impact on our industry. This was true in the 1970’s when John was pioneering the cable industry and more so today due to the ever accelerating pace of technological change. Today’s always-connected, mobile, digital and cloud-based world has a compressed technology roll-out cycle. Formerly stable sectors can transform rapidly, leaving management teams with little time to adjust strategy or reallocate resources. Liberty sees the TMT world in three segments:
1) Clear winners: companies we would love to own, but which are likely at prohibitively high valuations;
2) Clear losers: companies to avoid or monetize before the underlying trend becomes obvious; and 3) Ambiguous middle: this is where the greatest opportunities are likely to lie. A combination of competence, conviction and patience, where Liberty’s house view differs from the market, can allow for highly successful investments.
The market often shoots first and asks questions later. Temporary bouts of market hysteria are common in our industry; sometimes the concerns are unfounded and the business in question is fundamentally sound. As we have done in the past, we will continue to invest based on our long-term vision for how the industry is most likely to evolve, not the proverbial flavor of the week.
While our industry may be too dynamic to adhere to Berkshire Hathaway’s forever holding period, we believe we will be able to find investments where the holding period can be long, technological change notwithstanding. Due to increasing consumption trends, we remain excited about the media industry, and the music industry in particular, as we will discuss in more detail below. Most importantly, we are grateful for your continued trust in us.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is the valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates.
It examines several financial statement items that other multiples like the price-to-earnings ratio do not, including debt, preferred stock, and minority interests; and interest, tax, depreciation, amortization.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is calculated as follows:
Enterprise Value / Operating Earnings*
It is based on the investment strategy described in the book Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations, written by Tobias Carlisle, founder of acquirersmultiple.com.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from The Magic Formula® Earnings Yield because The Acquirer’s Multiple® uses operating earnings in place of EBIT.
Operating earnings is constructed from the top of the income statement down, where EBIT is constructed from the bottom up. Calculating operating earnings from the top down standardizes the metric, making a comparison across companies, industries and sectors possible, and, by excluding special items–earnings that a company does not expect to recur in future years–ensures that these earnings are related only to operations.
Similarly, The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from the ordinary enterprise multiple because it uses operating earnings in place of EBITDA, which is also constructed from the bottom up.
Tobias Carlisle is also the Chief Investment Officer of Carbon Beach Asset Management LLC.
He's best known as the author of the well regarded Deep Value website Greenbackd, the book Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014, Wiley Finance), and Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012, Wiley Finance). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Articles written for Seeking Alpha are provided by the team of analysts at acquirersmultiple.com, home of The Acquirer's Multiple Deep Value Stock Screener.
All metrics use trailing twelve month or most recent quarter data.
* The screener uses the CRSP/Compustat merged database “OIADP” line item defined as “Operating Income After Depreciation.”
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