The Mechanics Of Absurdity

Over the past few decades, the central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), have relied increasingly on interest rates to help modify economic growth. Interest rate management is their tool of choice because it can be effective and because central banks regulate the supply of money, which directly effects [...]

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Negative Is The New Subprime

What is nothing? What comes to mind when you imagine nothing? The moment we try to imagine what nothing is, we fail, because nothing cannot be envisioned. There is nothing to envision or ponder or even think about. Nothing is no thing. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Yes, the [...]

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The Prospects Of A Weaker Dollar Policy

“Let me be clear, what I said was, it’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts.”- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell -7/31/2019 Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc “What the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve was that this was the beginning of [...]

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Who Is Funding Uncle Sam?

In, The Lowest Common Denominator, we quantified the extent to which growth of consumer, corporate, and government debt has greatly outstripped economic growth and our collective income. This dynamic has made the servicing of the debt and the ultimate pay back increasingly more reliant on more debt issuance. Q1 hedge [...]

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Pulling Forward Versus Paying Forward

Debt allows a consumer (household, business, or government) to pull consumption forward or acquire something today for which they otherwise would have to wait. When the primary objective of fiscal and monetary policy becomes myopically focused on incentivizing consumers to borrow, spend, and pull consumption forward, there will eventually [...]

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Goldman Sachs On Corporate Debt: Myopic Or Self-Serving?

“The biggest problem that most people have is that they read Wall Street research reports and they believe the Wall Street hype… Wall Street analysts are very, very easy to fool, they’re generally parrots for what management tells them.” – Sam Antar, former CFO Crazy Eddie Q1 hedge fund letters, [...]

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Jerome Powell On 60 Minutes: Fact Check

On Sunday, March 11, 2019, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was interviewed by Scott Pelley on 60 Minutes. We thought it would be helpful to cite a few sections of their conversation and provide you with prior articles in which we addressed the topics discussed. Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, [...]

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MMT And Its Fictional Discipline?

“That is some crazy talk” – Bill Gates on the topic of MMT Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc In our article, MMT Sounds Great in Theory… But, we dove into the latest and greatest of economic thinking, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). This theory is crucially important for investors and [...]

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Price To Forecasted Hope

There are countless ways to evaluate equities, and they all have glaring flaws. Equity valuation is not a science with predictive formulas. It is subjective, and the formulas themselves and the interpretation of the results rely on an estimate of what the future holds. Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops [...]

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Two Percent For The One Percent

“Gradual inflation has a numbing effect. It impoverishes the lower and middle class, but they don’t notice.”—Andrew Bosomworth, PIMCO Germany, as quoted in Der Spiegel Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Media reports and political candidates have been stressing the rising wealth and income inequality gaps in the United States. [...]

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Higher Rates Are Crushing Investors

There is an old saying that proclaims, “it’s not the size of the ship, but the motion of the ocean.” Since this is a family-friendly publication, we will leave it at that. However, the saying has a connotation that is pertinent to the bond market today. Much of the [...]

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Chairman Powell – You’re Fired

“I’m a low interest rate person” – Donald Trump 2016 On Donald Trump’s hit TV show, The Apprentice, contestants competed to be Trump’s chief apprentice. Predictably, each show ended when the field of contestants was narrowed down by the firing of a would-be apprentice. While the show was pure entertainment, [...]

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15 Bullish Assumptions

If all goes well for nine more months, the post-financial crisis economic expansion will become the longest economic expansion in recent U.S. history. The U.S. stock markets are also on a tear, having just become the longest bull market since World War II. Regardless of your views about these [...]

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A Walking Contradiction – Warren Buffett

“I have ways of making money you know nothing about.” – John D. Rockefeller Contradiction- A situation in which inherent factors, actions, or propositions are inconsistent or contrary to one another- Merriam-Webster’s Dictionary Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to [...]

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What Turkey Can Teach Us About Gold

If you were contemplating an investment at the beginning of 2014, which of the two assets graphed below would you prefer to own? [REITs] Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Data Courtesy: Bloomberg In the traditional and logical way of thinking about investing, the asset that appreciates more is usually the preferred [...]

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The Weaponization Of The Dollar

The Uncivil Civil War discussed the sanguine approach many investors take towards equity risk despite clear signs of domestic political turbulence. The article put the upcoming elections and the growing political divisions amongst the populace into context with market risks. Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF Get the entire 10-part [...]

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Whatever It Takes

"At the end fiat money returns to its inner value-zero."  - Voltaire  "Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough." - Mario Draghi July 26, 2012 Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF Get the entire 10-part [...]

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Are The Market Generals Leading Us To War?

Market Wizards, a best-selling investment book written by Jack Schwager, is a must-read for investors looking to improve their performance. Each chapter of the book provides a biography and an interview of a highly successful trader/investor. Originally published in 1989, the book is full of valuable lessons from some [...]

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The Headwind Facing Housing

There are a large number of public and private services that measure the change in home prices. The algorithms behind these services, while complex, are primarily based on recent sale prices for comparative homes and adjusted for factors like location, property characteristics and the particulars of the house. While [...]

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The “Trend Is Your Friend” – Until It’s Not

Before February 2018, the S&P 500 was positive for a record 15 months in a row. Despite the seemingly perfect track record, a series of daily record highs, and unprecedented levels of positive investor sentiment, the market’s tone changed abruptly in the last few days of January. Since the [...]

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