Jerome Powell On 60 Minutes: Fact Check

On Sunday, March 11, 2019, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was interviewed by Scott Pelley on 60 Minutes. We thought it would be helpful to cite a few sections of their conversation and provide you with prior articles in which we addressed the topics discussed. Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, [...]


MMT And Its Fictional Discipline?

“That is some crazy talk” – Bill Gates on the topic of MMT Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc In our article, MMT Sounds Great in Theory… But, we dove into the latest and greatest of economic thinking, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). This theory is crucially important for investors and [...]


Price To Forecasted Hope

There are countless ways to evaluate equities, and they all have glaring flaws. Equity valuation is not a science with predictive formulas. It is subjective, and the formulas themselves and the interpretation of the results rely on an estimate of what the future holds. Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops [...]


Two Percent For The One Percent

“Gradual inflation has a numbing effect. It impoverishes the lower and middle class, but they don’t notice.”—Andrew Bosomworth, PIMCO Germany, as quoted in Der Spiegel Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Media reports and political candidates have been stressing the rising wealth and income inequality gaps in the United States. [...]


Higher Rates Are Crushing Investors

There is an old saying that proclaims, “it’s not the size of the ship, but the motion of the ocean.” Since this is a family-friendly publication, we will leave it at that. However, the saying has a connotation that is pertinent to the bond market today. Much of the [...]


Chairman Powell – You’re Fired

“I’m a low interest rate person” – Donald Trump 2016 On Donald Trump’s hit TV show, The Apprentice, contestants competed to be Trump’s chief apprentice. Predictably, each show ended when the field of contestants was narrowed down by the firing of a would-be apprentice. While the show was pure entertainment, [...]


15 Bullish Assumptions

If all goes well for nine more months, the post-financial crisis economic expansion will become the longest economic expansion in recent U.S. history. The U.S. stock markets are also on a tear, having just become the longest bull market since World War II. Regardless of your views about these [...]


A Walking Contradiction – Warren Buffett

“I have ways of making money you know nothing about.” – John D. Rockefeller Contradiction- A situation in which inherent factors, actions, or propositions are inconsistent or contrary to one another- Merriam-Webster’s DictionaryGet The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to [...]


What Turkey Can Teach Us About Gold

If you were contemplating an investment at the beginning of 2014, which of the two assets graphed below would you prefer to own? [REITs] Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etcData Courtesy: Bloomberg In the traditional and logical way of thinking about investing, the asset that appreciates more is usually the preferred [...]


The Weaponization Of The Dollar

The Uncivil Civil War discussed the sanguine approach many investors take towards equity risk despite clear signs of domestic political turbulence. The article put the upcoming elections and the growing political divisions amongst the populace into context with market risks.Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF Get the entire 10-part [...]


Whatever It Takes

"At the end fiat money returns to its inner value-zero."  - Voltaire  "Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough." - Mario Draghi July 26, 2012Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF Get the entire 10-part [...]


Are The Market Generals Leading Us To War?

Market Wizards, a best-selling investment book written by Jack Schwager, is a must-read for investors looking to improve their performance. Each chapter of the book provides a biography and an interview of a highly successful trader/investor. Originally published in 1989, the book is full of valuable lessons from some [...]


The Headwind Facing Housing

There are a large number of public and private services that measure the change in home prices. The algorithms behind these services, while complex, are primarily based on recent sale prices for comparative homes and adjusted for factors like location, property characteristics and the particulars of the house. While [...]


The “Trend Is Your Friend” – Until It’s Not

Before February 2018, the S&P 500 was positive for a record 15 months in a row. Despite the seemingly perfect track record, a series of daily record highs, and unprecedented levels of positive investor sentiment, the market’s tone changed abruptly in the last few days of January. Since the [...]


Stoking The Embers Of Inflation

This article was co-authored by J. Brett Freeze of Global Technical Analysis and Michael Lebowitz Monetary Velocity, an oft-misunderstood metric that quantifies the pace at which money is spent, has recently shown signs of rising after trending lower for the better part of the last decade. Since increasing velocity is [...]


Fixed-Income Chart Book – A Sense Of What Is To Come

Welcome to RIA Pro Within the next few weeks Real Investment Advice will officially introduce and launch RIA Pro. This new subscription service will offer investors an indispensable set of proprietary research tools and commentary aimed exclusively at helping those who wisely seek to compound their wealth.Get The Timeless Reading [...]


Viewing Employment Without Rose-Colored Glasses

Fed Officials Worry Economy Is Too Good. Workers Still Feel Left Behind” – New York Times 4/27/2018 This coming Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the monthly employment report. Consensus expectations from economists are for an unemployment rate (U3) of 4.1% which is nearly unprecedented in the [...]


Nowhere To Hide As Correlations Surge

The following article was originally a PowerPoint presentation that highlights several aspects of recent price movements across asset classes and within equity industry sectors. Many investors are unfamiliar with these relationships and their importance. While the current correction may prove only to be a speed bump on the way [...]


Triffin Warned Us

Trade negotiations and threatening global tariff volleys are contributing to significant volatility in the financial markets. Although applicable in many ways, the Smoot-Hawley protectionist act of 1930 is unfairly emphasized as the primary point of reference for understanding current events. In 1944, an historic agreement was forged amongst global leaders [...]


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