Will Risk Parity Blow Up…???
For four decades, the US stock market has traded up and to the right. During those brief moments of setback, treasuries rallied strongly. The fact that these two asset... Read More
It’s About To Get Wild…
A few years back, I was in NYC for meetings. All of a sudden, it started to pour, absolutely Miami style rain. Miraculously, an umbrella vendor popped out of... Read More
Will ESG Create The Next Lehman Moment…???
Ever since I can remember, billionaires have been taking private jets to conclaves where they strategized on how to reduce other people’s carbon emissions. At the time, I thought... Read More
When The Levee Breaks…
If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break When the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay. Q2 2021 hedge fund... Read More
On Staying Liquid…
Investing is a game of keeping powder dry and waiting for layups. So many investors miss this lesson. They stay fully invested in middling situations for various reasons—often mental.... Read More
(In)Stability…
This weekend, I watched in baffled amazement as our President and his entire administration went on vacation, abandoning tens of thousands of Americans, along with allied citizens, to their... Read More
JPOW Jests…
Thursday afternoon, there was a press conference. Some dots were moved about on a piece of paper and JPOW threatened a few basis points of yield in a year... Read More
ESG = Energy Stops Growing
For most of my career, oil demand has grown each year and supply has roughly kept up. Sure, it’s overshot in both directions. We’ve seen shortages and we’ve seen... Read More
Focus On The Facts…
One of the great benefits of writing this blog is that I get hundreds of emails each month. These emails give me a unique perspective into what others see... Read More
Trading “Project Zimbabwe…”
At the depths of the COVID crash, I began writing extensively about the equity market ramifications of unlimited fiscal and monetary stimulus. To start with, it was obvious that... Read More
Ponzis Go Boom!!!
For the past few years, I have been critical of the Ponzi Sector. To me, these are businesses that sell a dollar for 80 cents and hope to make... Read More
SHLL We Unwind This One…???
Yeah, yeah. I know. The ticker has changed and it’s no longer SHLL as the merger got approved. Then again, I’m a fan of word-plays and nothing works with... Read More
Cookin’ With Gas…
Before I start, it’s worth putting things into perspective here. In the fall of 2018, I made a call on natural gas (mostly based on the same thesis expounded... Read More
Project Zimbabwe
Roughly a month ago on the afternoon of Sunday, March 8th, Fed Chairman Powell had an emergency staff meeting. Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more geralt / Pixabay Powell: I... Read More
The Only Constant Is Change…
Quick housekeeping note: I’ll be in Orlando for ICR from January 12 to 15. If you’re attending and would like to chat stocks, please email me at [email protected] Q4... Read More
HIIQ is now a very different business from what I was buying earlier in the month
On Tuesday I wrote about thesis creep from the short sellers in Health Insurance Innovations (HIIQ – USA). At the time, I thought I was paying around five times... Read More
Inflation Is Coming…
Investing is all about probabilities. If the perceived odds of an event are high, certain securities will be priced based on those expected probabilities. The corollary is that when... Read More
Tankers Keep Trending Better…
For my entire career, I have closely watched the Global Micro Trends I’m invested in (I have a new term and I intend to abuse it—sorry). I have to... Read More
Tesla is using fake numbers to mimic a trend. Computers can’t see fraud
I know, I know, you’re sick of hearing about my vacation. Don’t worry, I’m not sharing vacation pics again. Rather, I want to talk about what I “discovered” in... Read More
Altisource Valuation Analysis
We have a lot of new readers here, so let me reiterate the house rules. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Stevebidmead / Pixabay I am not your financial... Read More
Full Frontal Fraud…
Let me cut to the chase; I won a few along the way, but Elon Musk clearly won this most recent battle. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Blomst... Read More
Shipping Is All About Upside Leverage…
Nine months ago, I began writing quite regularly about shipping (first article, second article, third article, fourth article). The thesis was simple; there was a dearth of new orders,... Read More
