Given the amount of time I’ve spent talking about Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) on this site, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that I materially changed my position over the past few days. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Screenshot via Joe Rogan show Back in October of 2018, I [...]
In the fall of 2017, I spent 2 wonderful weeks in Greece (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3). I ate great food, drank a bit too much ouzo and saw some wonderful historic sites. I also had a bunch of Greek bankers lie to me about their loan books. [...]
Back in December, when anything with a CUSIP was getting dumped by hedge funds facing liquidations, I repeatedly made the point (here, here, here) that it was the time to buy—particularly those assets that were at the epicenter of those hedge fund liquidations. Now, five months later, with most [...]
I have been highly critical of the Profitless Prosperity Sector (a.k.a the Ponzi Sector). The sector consists of companies that are effectively Ponzi Schemes; in that they have accelerating losses but show blistering growth rates in order to attract new capital. This all worked fine when companies kept their [...]
For Part 1, click here After 5 days, a few hundred miles of driving, a few dozen kebobs and some fascinating meetings; I got a feel for Cyprus. While the rest of the Eurozone’s economy is stillborn, Cyprus is actually recovering. Foreign investment, often related to buying “Golden Visas” is [...]
I’m writing to you from the beach in Larnaca, Cyprus. It’s 6am and I’m jetlagged, hopped up on coffee and ready to get exploring. Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc dimitrisvetsikas1969 / Pixabay Why Cyprus? Next week, I’m speaking at the annual VALUEx Caspian conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, hosted by my [...]
Over the past few quarters, I have become increasingly critical of the Profitless Prosperity Sector, known amongst my friends as the Ponzi Sector. Why Ponzi Sector? Because these companies have no profits yet continue to raise new capital by showing explosive revenue growth. Oddly, the more revenue they show, [...]
This may surprise people, but accounting isn’t a black and white endeavor—there’s actually a lot of gray area—particularly when you deal with accruals and estimates for future events. This is the reason that two very similar companies can report very different short-term results. What is the useful life of [...]
I’m a value investor at heart, so I naturally gravitate towards cheap stocks. That said; companies are often cheap because of well understood problems. The money is made by having a divergent opinion for why things will get better, along with a catalyst—otherwise a cheap stock will stay cheap [...]
Over the years, I’ve spent less time talking to CEO and more time learning about industries. Let’s face it CEOs lie (compulsively). They only tell you the good news—or what they think you want to hear. If I have a strategy question, maybe I’ll let them humor me for [...]
Increased government regulation is a fact of life—particularly in the shipping sector. As a shipping investor, this tends to be good news; as disruption usually upsets existing trade patterns and leads to an increase in charter rates. I learned the benefit of this nearly two decades ago, when single-hull [...]
"I don't intend to do a follow-up on TSLA unless there's something truly egregious in the 10-Q. I don’t want this site to become obsessed with the Tesla idiocy-there's so much more happening in the world." And yet you are like a mouth to a flame in the latest [...]
From time to time, the investment world takes something as accepted wisdom and just runs with it. For whatever reason, investors seem convinced that the US Dollar is destined to go higher. I’ve heard lots of smart opinions why; interest rate differentials, GDP growth rate differentials, “The Dollar Milkshake [...]
Near the culmination of all great stock market bubbles, at least one of that cycle’s supposed luminaries suffers an epic collapse because of fraud. As a result, fresh capital is restricted from that sector when it is needed most, leading to further crisis and a winnowing out of the [...]
My most recent article has generated an unusual quantity of feedback from friends in the hedge fund industry, so I thought I’d expand upon it and address this article to all my hedge fund brethren. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc As you are well aware, despite outwards appearances, most [...]
I am bullish on US natural gas. I realize that this is one of the most contrarian things you can say in finance, but I am indeed bullish. Every investor knows that the US is awash in cheap natural gas, but investors often forget that usage and export volumes [...]
I wrote about Teekay Offshore (TOO – USA) on January 1, 2018 following the end of tax loss selling season. At the time, my thesis was that reported numbers were a mess of 1-time events that investors couldn’t follow, yet new growth projects were coming online and a more [...]
During every credit cycle, there is one national lender that all other lenders try to emulate. This is because a combination of rapid asset growth and elevated net interest margins leads to rapid earnings growth and share price appreciation. Unfortunately, in order to do that, you have to make [...]
Last week, US interest rates completed a multi-year reversal pattern and broke out over a three-decade downtrend line. I believe that interest rates move in generational cycles and the chart pattern has now confirmed a long-term trend towards higher interest rates. This trend is across the entire US duration [...]
Back in January, I wrote about Tidewater (TDW – USA) which will be the largest global player in offshore service vessels (OSVs) once it completes its merger with Gulfmark Offshore (GLF – USA). At the time, the offshore oil sector was despised by equity investors who assumed that it [...]
Last Tuesday, I was in Southwest Texas, at the Terlingua ghost town; created by a mercury mining boom in the early 1900’s. On the wall of the only remaining store in town, I saw this sign and had a good chuckle. Despite a century of human progress, nothing much [...]
Just over three months ago, I wrote about Iron Bridge Resources (IBR – Canada) and noted that with a hostile bid in place at 75 cents, you could buy it at 74 cents and have a situation with minimal downside and quite a lot of upside—especially as my good [...]
