Inflation Is Coming…

Investing is all about probabilities. If the perceived odds of an event are high, certain securities will be priced based on those expected probabilities. The corollary is that when an event is perceived as almost impossible, securities do not price in any chance of it occurring. If that event...

Tankers Keep Trending Better…

For my entire career, I have closely watched the Global Micro Trends I’m invested in (I have a new term and I intend to abuse it—sorry). I have to be honest, quite often, the trend sort of peters out. It’s often still a financial victory, just not what I...

Altisource Valuation Analysis

We have a lot of new readers here, so let me reiterate the house rules. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Stevebidmead / Pixabay I am not your financial advisor I don’t know why you bought or sold something. If you choose to buy something I write about, do...

Full Frontal Fraud…

Let me cut to the chase; I won a few along the way, but Elon Musk clearly won this most recent battle. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Blomst / Pixabay Earlier this week, Musk stared at revenue comping negative, collapsing ASPs, and abysmal margins. He had his Draghi moment...

Shipping Is All About Upside Leverage…

Nine months ago, I began writing quite regularly about shipping (first article, second article, third article, fourth article). The thesis was simple; there was a dearth of new orders, IMO2020 would likely lead to further supply disruption and shipping is a leveraged play on geopolitical volatility (it was pretty...

Miami Real Estate Is About To Collapse…

Miami has a highly cyclical property market where the magnitudes of the booms and busts dwarf anywhere else in the country.  In my experience, trends in Miami real estate also tend to lead national trends by a few quarters. Therefore, smart guys always watch Miami. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference,...

On Getting Antero Resources Wrong: Post Mortem

I pride myself in being a contrarian. When someone tells me that something positively cannot happen, I immediately wonder what security is mispriced if there’s even a 1% chance it could happen. Often, the securities I’m long are unloved, unpopular and downright hated. When I speak at idea dinners,...

A Look At The Uranium Market

Last night, I had drinks with my good buddy Mike “Mr. Uranium” Alkin. As you can guess, we talked a lot about Mike’s favorite topic; uranium. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Let me preface this discussion by saying that uranium will always be special to me. I was a...

Altisource: Long Thesis

A few weeks back, I wrote about “long-shorts.” These are companies that see their businesses improve when the overall economy deteriorates. I’m increasingly convinced that we’re about to see a real doozy of a recession here in America. It will likely be exaggerated by whatever happens in Asia. While...

Long GREK

Much as I predicted 6 weeks ago, New Democracy won by a landslide. In fact, their majority is larger than expected and they can now form a government without a coalition. Additionally, the Nazi party has lost all seats in Parliament (usually a good thing for fund flows). As...

What does a “long-short” look like?

Longtime readers of this site know that I try to avoid making big stock market calls as I feel that I have no edge there. An overvalued market perched on shaky fundamentals can always become more overvalued. Besides, opinions are worth what you pay for them—which incidentally is free...

Why June Is Christmas For Small Caps

“Yo Kuppy!! I’ve been working this order for 5 million shares for the past two months, I have 400k left. Gonna print em in the hole ‘cause it’s end of quarter and seller needs out. I’m taking 300 for the house account. You want the rest? “Hell yea!! Take 25...

Time To Finally Buy Greece???

In the fall of 2017, I spent 2 wonderful weeks in Greece (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3). I ate great food, drank a bit too much ouzo and saw some wonderful historic sites. I also had a bunch of Greek bankers lie to me about their loan books....

Cyprus Deep Value Part 2

For Part 1, click here After 5 days, a few hundred miles of driving, a few dozen kebobs and some fascinating meetings; I got a feel for Cyprus. While the rest of the Eurozone’s economy is stillborn, Cyprus is actually recovering. Foreign investment, often related to buying “Golden Visas” is...

Cyprus Bail-In Post Moratorium

I’m writing to you from the beach in Larnaca, Cyprus. It’s 6am and I’m jetlagged, hopped up on coffee and ready to get exploring. Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc dimitrisvetsikas1969 / Pixabay Why Cyprus? Next week, I’m speaking at the annual VALUEx Caspian conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, hosted by my...

Failure To LYFToff…

Over the past few quarters, I have become increasingly critical of the Profitless Prosperity Sector, known amongst my friends as the Ponzi Sector. Why Ponzi Sector? Because these companies have no profits yet continue to raise new capital by showing explosive revenue growth. Oddly, the more revenue they show,...

Can’t Spell Felon Without ELON

This may surprise people, but accounting isn’t a black and white endeavor—there’s actually a lot of gray area—particularly when you deal with accruals and estimates for future events. This is the reason that two very similar companies can report very different short-term results. What is the useful life of...

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