Miami Real Estate Is About To Collapse…

Miami has a highly cyclical property market where the magnitudes of the booms and busts dwarf anywhere else in the country.  In my experience, trends in Miami real estate also tend to lead national trends by a few quarters. Therefore, smart guys always watch Miami. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, [...]

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On Getting Antero Resources Wrong: Post Mortem

I pride myself in being a contrarian. When someone tells me that something positively cannot happen, I immediately wonder what security is mispriced if there’s even a 1% chance it could happen. Often, the securities I’m long are unloved, unpopular and downright hated. When I speak at idea dinners, [...]

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A Look At The Uranium Market

Last night, I had drinks with my good buddy Mike “Mr. Uranium” Alkin. As you can guess, we talked a lot about Mike’s favorite topic; uranium. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Let me preface this discussion by saying that uranium will always be special to me. I was a [...]

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Altisource: Long Thesis

A few weeks back, I wrote about “long-shorts.” These are companies that see their businesses improve when the overall economy deteriorates. I’m increasingly convinced that we’re about to see a real doozy of a recession here in America. It will likely be exaggerated by whatever happens in Asia. While [...]

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Long GREK

Much as I predicted 6 weeks ago, New Democracy won by a landslide. In fact, their majority is larger than expected and they can now form a government without a coalition. Additionally, the Nazi party has lost all seats in Parliament (usually a good thing for fund flows). As [...]

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What does a “long-short” look like?

Longtime readers of this site know that I try to avoid making big stock market calls as I feel that I have no edge there. An overvalued market perched on shaky fundamentals can always become more overvalued. Besides, opinions are worth what you pay for them—which incidentally is free [...]

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Why June Is Christmas For Small Caps

“Yo Kuppy!! I’ve been working this order for 5 million shares for the past two months, I have 400k left. Gonna print em in the hole ‘cause it’s end of quarter and seller needs out. I’m taking 300 for the house account. You want the rest? “Hell yea!! Take 25 [...]

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Time To Finally Buy Greece???

In the fall of 2017, I spent 2 wonderful weeks in Greece (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3). I ate great food, drank a bit too much ouzo and saw some wonderful historic sites. I also had a bunch of Greek bankers lie to me about their loan books. [...]

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Cyprus Deep Value Part 2

For Part 1, click here After 5 days, a few hundred miles of driving, a few dozen kebobs and some fascinating meetings; I got a feel for Cyprus. While the rest of the Eurozone’s economy is stillborn, Cyprus is actually recovering. Foreign investment, often related to buying “Golden Visas” is [...]

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Cyprus Bail-In Post Moratorium

I’m writing to you from the beach in Larnaca, Cyprus. It’s 6am and I’m jetlagged, hopped up on coffee and ready to get exploring. Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc dimitrisvetsikas1969 / Pixabay Why Cyprus? Next week, I’m speaking at the annual VALUEx Caspian conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, hosted by my [...]

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Failure To LYFToff…

Over the past few quarters, I have become increasingly critical of the Profitless Prosperity Sector, known amongst my friends as the Ponzi Sector. Why Ponzi Sector? Because these companies have no profits yet continue to raise new capital by showing explosive revenue growth. Oddly, the more revenue they show, [...]

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Can’t Spell Felon Without ELON

This may surprise people, but accounting isn’t a black and white endeavor—there’s actually a lot of gray area—particularly when you deal with accruals and estimates for future events. This is the reason that two very similar companies can report very different short-term results. What is the useful life of [...]

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Great Bargains In Shipping…

I’m a value investor at heart, so I naturally gravitate towards cheap stocks. That said; companies are often cheap because of well understood problems. The money is made by having a divergent opinion for why things will get better, along with a catalyst—otherwise a cheap stock will stay cheap [...]

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Scorpio Tankers

Increased government regulation is a fact of life—particularly in the shipping sector. As a shipping investor, this tends to be good news; as disruption usually upsets existing trade patterns and leads to an increase in charter rates. I learned the benefit of this nearly two decades ago, when single-hull [...]

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Small Companies – Big Upside

"I don't intend to do a follow-up on TSLA unless there's something truly egregious in the 10-Q. I don’t want this site to become obsessed with the Tesla idiocy-there's so much more happening in the world." And yet you are like a mouth to a flame in the latest [...]

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King Dollar?

From time to time, the investment world takes something as accepted wisdom and just runs with it. For whatever reason, investors seem convinced that the US Dollar is destined to go higher. I’ve heard lots of smart opinions why; interest rate differentials, GDP growth rate differentials, “The Dollar Milkshake [...]

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