Can’t Spell Felon Without ELON

This may surprise people, but accounting isn’t a black and white endeavor—there’s actually a lot of gray area—particularly when you deal with accruals and estimates for future events. This is the reason that two very similar companies can report very different short-term results. What is the useful life of [...]

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Great Bargains In Shipping…

I’m a value investor at heart, so I naturally gravitate towards cheap stocks. That said; companies are often cheap because of well understood problems. The money is made by having a divergent opinion for why things will get better, along with a catalyst—otherwise a cheap stock will stay cheap [...]

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Scorpio Tankers

Increased government regulation is a fact of life—particularly in the shipping sector. As a shipping investor, this tends to be good news; as disruption usually upsets existing trade patterns and leads to an increase in charter rates. I learned the benefit of this nearly two decades ago, when single-hull [...]

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Small Companies – Big Upside

"I don't intend to do a follow-up on TSLA unless there's something truly egregious in the 10-Q. I don’t want this site to become obsessed with the Tesla idiocy-there's so much more happening in the world." And yet you are like a mouth to a flame in the latest [...]

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King Dollar?

From time to time, the investment world takes something as accepted wisdom and just runs with it. For whatever reason, investors seem convinced that the US Dollar is destined to go higher. I’ve heard lots of smart opinions why; interest rate differentials, GDP growth rate differentials, “The Dollar Milkshake [...]

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The Hedge Fund Manager’s Dilemma…

My most recent article has generated an unusual quantity of feedback from friends in the hedge fund industry, so I thought I’d expand upon it and address this article to all my hedge fund brethren. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etcAs you are well aware, despite outwards appearances, most [...]

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Who’s Bullish On Natural Gas??

I am bullish on US natural gas. I realize that this is one of the most contrarian things you can say in finance, but I am indeed bullish. Every investor knows that the US is awash in cheap natural gas, but investors often forget that usage and export volumes [...]

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TOO Much Debt…

I wrote about Teekay Offshore (TOO – USA) on January 1, 2018 following the end of tax loss selling season. At the time, my thesis was that reported numbers were a mess of 1-time events that investors couldn’t follow, yet new growth projects were coming online and a more [...]

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One Ring To Rule Them All…

Last week, US interest rates completed a multi-year reversal pattern and broke out over a three-decade downtrend line. I believe that interest rates move in generational cycles and the chart pattern has now confirmed a long-term trend towards higher interest rates. This trend is across the entire US duration [...]

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It’s Tidewater Time!!

Back in January, I wrote about Tidewater (TDW – USA) which will be the largest global player in offshore service vessels (OSVs) once it completes its merger with Gulfmark Offshore (GLF – USA). At the time, the offshore oil sector was despised by equity investors who assumed that it [...]

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The Terlingua Ghost Town

Last Tuesday, I was in Southwest Texas, at the Terlingua ghost town; created by a mercury mining boom in the early 1900’s. On the wall of the only remaining store in town, I saw this sign and had a good chuckle. Despite a century of human progress, nothing much [...]

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Iron Bridge Resources Update

Just over three months ago, I wrote about Iron Bridge Resources (IBR – Canada) and noted that with a hostile bid in place at 75 cents, you could buy it at 74 cents and have a situation with minimal downside and quite a lot of upside—especially as my good [...]

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Air Canada Is Screwed

Ever since Air Canada announced the termination of their Aeroplan agreement with Aimia (AIM – Canada) last year, I have suspected that this was a prelude to them eventually acquiring Aeroplan. I believed this due to simple math. It will cost Air Canada $200 to $400 per cardmember to [...]

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All It Was Cracked Up To Be…

One of the toughest decisions when investing in growth companies; is when to sell the winners. The issue is that successful businesses continue to increase in value over time. Therefore, selling means that you miss out on some of that growth. That said; I tend to find that despite [...]

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