Gold And The Hedge Against Government

Martin writes in his blog Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The only time gold has rallied significantly is when the CONFIDENCE in government declines. That was the case during the post-1976 era for people saw inflation as running away. That was because of OPEC creating STAGFLATION meaning it was [...]

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In Gold We Trust!

Money is most vulnerable to level of public trust. Federal Reserve under Paul Volcker restored confidence through a restrictive monetary policy that led to high interest rates which is still unparalleled today. In 2008 – 09, the tides turned as global credit crisis eroded confidence which was intact since [...]

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The Next Recession

The US payroll data came out today and it was bad. Although Jobless rate is still respectable at 3.6% the new Job creation has virtually come to a halt. Markets are now pricing three FED rate cuts this year with some investment bankers sticking their neck out for a [...]

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The Lubricant Is Not Working Anymore

Mehul Daya writes and I concur…. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc it’s simple: it’s all about Dollar-Liquidity. Slowdown in global trade is putting pressure on creation and velocity of Dollars via value-chains/Dollar-leverage since the Dollar is the lubricant of the global financial system. See charts below in thread. Long USD Chart [...]

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Charts That Matter: There Is Just Too Much Bearishness

I think we are in early stages of bear market, with very poor returns for equity investors in the years to come. But it seems looking at the chart below there is just too much bearishness. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The smart money index just continues to plunge. [...]

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Three Questions For The Year Ahead

Louis-Vincent Gave writes …..Investors will be happy to bid farewell to 2018, a miserable year in which all assets underperformed US dollar cash. For next year, three questions are critical: Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc 1) Will the US-dollar liquidity squeeze ease? 2) Will the expanding US budget deficit prove [...]

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The Signs Of Top Are There… Socionomics Nails It

Financial markets look flawless and unblemished just before topping. but from the eyes of a socionomist (in this case my friend Neppollian) this flawless demeanour is what makes participants careless and fearless. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc stevepb / Pixabay However to the trained and seasoned eyes it leaves many [...]

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Charts That Matter

The forecast is clear – which has been Henrik thesis for long time! We are in the deflationary (disinflationary bust) part of the economic slowdown caused by Fed hike and QT. Coincident economic numbers are not showing this yet (GDP, employment etc.) – but soon the slowdown will be [...]

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Charts That Matter – It’s Time For Gold

This is the special edition of charts from Indiacharts monthly long short report. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Below is Gold chart in US Dollar. Silver is at a near double bottom at 13.76-14$ and waiting for a price confirmation. Once prices breakout then we should see silver join gold [...]

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Online Banks Are The New Competition For Traditional Banks

Online banks are more technologically advanced, have less operating cost and hence are able to offer better deals to both borrowers and lenders as WSJ writes “Many large banks have barely increased payouts to depositors since the Fed started raising rates in 2015. Standard savings accounts at Bank of [...]

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Flat Inverted Or Steep… Pick Your Own Yield Curve

Yield curve is actually a function of expectations. US is having the flattest yield curve,whereas china, Germany and Japan continues to see steepness in the curve. Get Our Activist Investing Case Study! Get the entire 10-part series on our in-depth study on activist investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, [...]

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Global Manufacturing Output Growth At Two-Year Low

The end of the third quarter saw a slowdown in the rate of expansion of the global manufacturing sector. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ – fell to a 22-month low of 52.2 in September, down from 52.6 in August. Although the PMI has remained above the neutral 50.0 mark [...]

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Never Better Time Than Now To Read… 48 Laws Of Power

48 Laws of Power is a riveting narrative on the politics of power from bestselling writer Robert Greene. The book focuses on three main aspects of power. The first is observing power in others, while the second thread involves gaining power for oneself. The third element the narrative concerns [...]

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Emerging Markets Out Of Woods?

Heisenberg writes... there will be more than a few stories written over the next several days about how the combination of a cooler-than-expected August CPI print in the U.S. (Thursday), a larger-than-expected rate hike from the Turkish central bank (Thursday) and a surprise rate hike from Russia (Friday), are [...]

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The Show Is Over And We Can All Go Home

The bounce in Global GDP growth is over as per Morgan Stanley. This is not a signal of global reflation, or synchronised growth, but the evidence of secular stagnation caused by constant demand-side policies. [REITs] Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc We will have to wait for something to break again….so [...]

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Why Global Wages Will No Longer Rise?

Companies in matured economies are scrapping annual wage reviews because most employees are  disappointed by meager increase in wages. As Indian economy gets more matured (few firms having large marketshare in an industry) employees bargaining power is only going to erode. [REITs] Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The next industry [...]

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Just How Wildly Exuberant is the Junk-Credit Market?

Wolf Richter writes that…..The deals in Junk credit market are reminiscent of the kind of deal one would have seen in 2006 and 2007.” They’re still blowing off the Fed.The share of these so-called “covenant-lite” (“cov-lite”) loans compared to all leveraged loans outstanding keeps setting new records. LCD of [...]

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Everybody Is In The Same Boat

BOFA does a survey of Fund managers and the following graph should not come as a surprise to investors. Every asset ( M equities, EM bonds, Commodities) has been sold to buy US equities. [REITs] Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Now that rotation is also almost over. If dollar index continues [...]

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