Martin writes in his blog Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The only time gold has rallied significantly is when the CONFIDENCE in government declines. That was the case during the post-1976 era for people saw inflation as running away. That was because of OPEC creating STAGFLATION meaning it was [...]
Money is most vulnerable to level of public trust. Federal Reserve under Paul Volcker restored confidence through a restrictive monetary policy that led to high interest rates which is still unparalleled today. In 2008 – 09, the tides turned as global credit crisis eroded confidence which was intact since [...]
The US payroll data came out today and it was bad. Although Jobless rate is still respectable at 3.6% the new Job creation has virtually come to a halt. Markets are now pricing three FED rate cuts this year with some investment bankers sticking their neck out for a [...]
Mehul Daya writes and I concur…. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc it’s simple: it’s all about Dollar-Liquidity. Slowdown in global trade is putting pressure on creation and velocity of Dollars via value-chains/Dollar-leverage since the Dollar is the lubricant of the global financial system. See charts below in thread. Long USD Chart [...]
I think we are in early stages of bear market, with very poor returns for equity investors in the years to come. But it seems looking at the chart below there is just too much bearishness. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The smart money index just continues to plunge. [...]
Louis-Vincent Gave writes …..Investors will be happy to bid farewell to 2018, a miserable year in which all assets underperformed US dollar cash. For next year, three questions are critical: Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc 1) Will the US-dollar liquidity squeeze ease? 2) Will the expanding US budget deficit prove [...]
Financial markets look flawless and unblemished just before topping. but from the eyes of a socionomist (in this case my friend Neppollian) this flawless demeanour is what makes participants careless and fearless. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc stevepb / Pixabay However to the trained and seasoned eyes it leaves many [...]
The forecast is clear – which has been Henrik thesis for long time! We are in the deflationary (disinflationary bust) part of the economic slowdown caused by Fed hike and QT. Coincident economic numbers are not showing this yet (GDP, employment etc.) – but soon the slowdown will be [...]
This is the special edition of charts from Indiacharts monthly long short report. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Below is Gold chart in US Dollar. Silver is at a near double bottom at 13.76-14$ and waiting for a price confirmation. Once prices breakout then we should see silver join gold [...]
Tamal writes “Frankly, all three possibilities are real—a quarter percentage point rate hike, a half a percentage point rate hike or even no hike (and let the impact of post two hikes sink in). The market will be surprised—not shocked—if RBI goes for a half a percentage point rate [...]
Online banks are more technologically advanced, have less operating cost and hence are able to offer better deals to both borrowers and lenders as WSJ writes “Many large banks have barely increased payouts to depositors since the Fed started raising rates in 2015. Standard savings accounts at Bank of [...]
Yield curve is actually a function of expectations. US is having the flattest yield curve,whereas china, Germany and Japan continues to see steepness in the curve. Get Our Activist Investing Case Study! Get the entire 10-part series on our in-depth study on activist investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, [...]
The end of the third quarter saw a slowdown in the rate of expansion of the global manufacturing sector. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ – fell to a 22-month low of 52.2 in September, down from 52.6 in August. Although the PMI has remained above the neutral 50.0 mark [...]
48 Laws of Power is a riveting narrative on the politics of power from bestselling writer Robert Greene. The book focuses on three main aspects of power. The first is observing power in others, while the second thread involves gaining power for oneself. The third element the narrative concerns [...]
India - Reuters says that investors are betting that India will need to raise rates at least two more times this year to shore up the rupee, which is presently trading at 72.58 to the dollar. The government's latest measures to support the currency have been underwhelming, leading to [...]
Heisenberg writes... there will be more than a few stories written over the next several days about how the combination of a cooler-than-expected August CPI print in the U.S. (Thursday), a larger-than-expected rate hike from the Turkish central bank (Thursday) and a surprise rate hike from Russia (Friday), are [...]
The bounce in Global GDP growth is over as per Morgan Stanley. This is not a signal of global reflation, or synchronised growth, but the evidence of secular stagnation caused by constant demand-side policies. [REITs] Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc We will have to wait for something to break again….so [...]
Companies in matured economies are scrapping annual wage reviews because most employees are disappointed by meager increase in wages. As Indian economy gets more matured (few firms having large marketshare in an industry) employees bargaining power is only going to erode. [REITs] Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The next industry [...]
Wolf Richter writes that…..The deals in Junk credit market are reminiscent of the kind of deal one would have seen in 2006 and 2007.” They’re still blowing off the Fed.The share of these so-called “covenant-lite” (“cov-lite”) loans compared to all leveraged loans outstanding keeps setting new records. LCD of [...]
Long-term public opinion data on the economic mood in emerging markets is less comprehensive, but it suggests good feelings about the economy may have peaked in some cases. In India, 83% thought the economy was good in 2017; 56% think things are going well in 2018 (Pew’s Spring Poll, [...]
BOFA does a survey of Fund managers and the following graph should not come as a surprise to investors. Every asset ( M equities, EM bonds, Commodities) has been sold to buy US equities. [REITs] Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Now that rotation is also almost over. If dollar index continues [...]
Daniel Lacelle writes in this interesting piece “A country with monetary sovereignty can issue all the currency it needs” is a fallacy. [REITs] Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Monetary sovereignty is not something government decides. Confidence and use of a fiat currency is not dictated by government nor does it [...]
