The following is a synopsis of what the larger professional institutions and their research departments are expecting for 2020; via Market Cycle Wealth Management. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more GOLDMAN SACHS: U.S. recession risk is limited to a 20% chance in 2020 Federal Reserve to remain on hold,...
Russell is my all time favourite strategist and this article https://www.eri-c.com/news/303 on the dilemma facing the People Bank of China is a must read. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more I have take screen shot of some interesting paragraph which will tell you that china is in serious trouble. China...
Asset price is a simple case of demand and supply. The following words from Agnico eagle CEO ( one of the largest gold miner in the world) will tell you the supply situation. Smart investors already know about the demand picture. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more There is...
This makes for an interesting reading: Continuing almost two decades of tradition, our experts have made 10 Outrageous Predictions for the year ahead. Their consensus-smashing forecasts would send shockwaves through the markets, if they come to pass. So will they prove pure fantasy or visions of reality? Rirriz / Pixabay Chips go...
Corporate Management teams are LBO’ing themselves with cheap debt (Thx Fed) to reduce share counts and increase stock values (time shift) now to enrich themselves at the expense of employees and future investors stuck with all the debt.( @MI_investments) Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Why low interest rates...
Why I changed my (Strong) US Dollar view “Ideas become part of who we are. People get invested in their ideas, especially if they get invested publicly and identify with their ideas. So, there are many forces against changing your mind. Flip-flopping is a bad word to people. It shouldn’t...
Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc “Debt owed by governments, businesses and households around the globe is up nearly 50% since before the financial crisis to $246.6 trillion at the beginning of March” .The only way out is default through Devaluation Capex investments, a key driver of future growth expectations...
Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Article by Ritesh Jain, World Out Of Whack
Something is seriously rotten in European banking and Deutsche bank is the biggest systemic risk today. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc European bank and financial services stocks just closed below their lows of 2011, 2012 and 2016. The entire economy is Fyre festival The day that this chart, showing positive and...
The one ingredient missing for a major bond price top is the blowup of a big firm like LTCM, Bear Stearns, Lehman, Orange Co., MF Global, etc. Maybe it has already happened, and we just have not heard yet.(Tom McClellan) Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The inflation is back Walmart...
Whenever CNY has depreciated it always means deflation in the world because weak Chinese currency makes Chinese exports cheaper and hence falling CNY means falling GOLD prices…. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc More important than “currency wars”, file this one away in the something-big-changed-recently drawer Page Industries (India franchise of...
Nomura on US equities “We would expect any near-term rally to be no more than a head fake, and think that any such rally would be best treated as an opportunity to sell in preparation for the second wave of volatility that we expect will arrive in late Aug or...
WSJ: “Families Go Deep in Debt to Stay in the Middle Class” Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc This is a great chart on growth of assets and Liabilities. I think this will be true for lot of developed countries. Lagging indicator “This chart plots the CCI’s monthly readings back to 1977....
IMF growth estimates US growth estimate for 2019 revised up by 0.3% to 2.9%. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc FED does not need to cut but a rate cut will stimulate the economy. If that were not enough President trump can now increase fiscal spending heading into election in 2020...
Consumers, businesses, and investors confronted a meaningful headwind in the second quarter of 2019—the risk of escalating trade tensions and their unintended consequences. This came to fruition when China was perceived to backtrack on agreements regarding changes it would make to its trade and domestic policies, bringing negotiations to...
Pick and choose your poison. An economy which is growing at 3% and an unemployment rate of less than 4% will see rate cuts in next week Fed meeting. We are truly on the verge of a currency war. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Small business selling prices suggest...
Gold in INR (Indian Rupee)……before long national obsession is going to be back. The amount of interest Indians have in GOLD today can be gauged from the AUM of GOLD ETF and DSP gold mining fund… which is at multi year low. Interestingly, the interest rate cuts by Indian...
Prerequisite Capital writes in their newsletter: Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Perspective around World & US Equity markets, before launching into an expanded discussion of the required Portfolio Strategy elements that are likely to be well suited to the next 25 years Global Equities: the USA vs. the World Here...
As trade wars threatened to derail global economic growth, major central banks suggested they were ready to provide support in the form of lower rates. Markets rallied early in June as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell, said he stood “ready to act” and the official Fed...
Copper Demand Set To Double In 20 years – The World’s Largest Operating Copper Mines Are More Than 75 Years Old.Conditions are ripe but wait for cycle to turn up for commodities. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Anything left with a positive real yield in Europe is getting eaten...
The EM-DM growth differential is depressed in a historical context Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The GDP growth differential between EM and DM has collapsed since 2010. While it appears to be stabilizing most recently, escalation of the trade war puts this at risk.The growth differential between EM and...
It’s official. US 30-year yield just inverted vs. the Fed funds rate! Same warning ahead of the GFC, tech bust, Asian crisis, S&L crisis, and 1980’s double dip recessions. The only false signal, 1986. (Tavi Costa) Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc We now have the entire US Treasury curve...
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