The one ingredient missing for a major bond price top is the blowup of a big firm like LTCM, Bear Stearns, Lehman, Orange Co., MF Global, etc. Maybe it has already happened, and we just have not heard yet.(Tom McClellan) Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The inflation is back Walmart [...]
Whenever CNY has depreciated it always means deflation in the world because weak Chinese currency makes Chinese exports cheaper and hence falling CNY means falling GOLD prices…. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc More important than “currency wars”, file this one away in the something-big-changed-recently drawer Page Industries (India franchise of [...]
Nomura on US equities “We would expect any near-term rally to be no more than a head fake, and think that any such rally would be best treated as an opportunity to sell in preparation for the second wave of volatility that we expect will arrive in late Aug or [...]
WSJ: “Families Go Deep in Debt to Stay in the Middle Class” Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc This is a great chart on growth of assets and Liabilities. I think this will be true for lot of developed countries. Lagging indicator “This chart plots the CCI’s monthly readings back to 1977. [...]
IMF growth estimates US growth estimate for 2019 revised up by 0.3% to 2.9%. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc FED does not need to cut but a rate cut will stimulate the economy. If that were not enough President trump can now increase fiscal spending heading into election in 2020 [...]
Consumers, businesses, and investors confronted a meaningful headwind in the second quarter of 2019—the risk of escalating trade tensions and their unintended consequences. This came to fruition when China was perceived to backtrack on agreements regarding changes it would make to its trade and domestic policies, bringing negotiations to [...]
Pick and choose your poison. An economy which is growing at 3% and an unemployment rate of less than 4% will see rate cuts in next week Fed meeting. We are truly on the verge of a currency war. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Small business selling prices suggest [...]
Gold in INR (Indian Rupee)……before long national obsession is going to be back. The amount of interest Indians have in GOLD today can be gauged from the AUM of GOLD ETF and DSP gold mining fund… which is at multi year low. Interestingly, the interest rate cuts by Indian [...]
Prerequisite Capital writes in their newsletter: Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Perspective around World & US Equity markets, before launching into an expanded discussion of the required Portfolio Strategy elements that are likely to be well suited to the next 25 years Global Equities: the USA vs. the World Here [...]
As trade wars threatened to derail global economic growth, major central banks suggested they were ready to provide support in the form of lower rates. Markets rallied early in June as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell, said he stood “ready to act” and the official Fed [...]
Copper Demand Set To Double In 20 years – The World’s Largest Operating Copper Mines Are More Than 75 Years Old.Conditions are ripe but wait for cycle to turn up for commodities. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Anything left with a positive real yield in Europe is getting eaten [...]
The EM-DM growth differential is depressed in a historical context Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The GDP growth differential between EM and DM has collapsed since 2010. While it appears to be stabilizing most recently, escalation of the trade war puts this at risk.The growth differential between EM and [...]
It’s official. US 30-year yield just inverted vs. the Fed funds rate! Same warning ahead of the GFC, tech bust, Asian crisis, S&L crisis, and 1980’s double dip recessions. The only false signal, 1986. (Tavi Costa) Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc We now have the entire US Treasury curve [...]
China long term growth path is following on footsteps of Japan and South Korea. Blow asset bubbles, take too much debt and there you have it... the lost decade. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc US 2-year yield now on pace for dropping 8-weeks straight! Moves as such only happened [...]
Martin writes in his blog Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The only time gold has rallied significantly is when the CONFIDENCE in government declines. That was the case during the post-1976 era for people saw inflation as running away. That was because of OPEC creating STAGFLATION meaning it was [...]
Money is most vulnerable to level of public trust. Federal Reserve under Paul Volcker restored confidence through a restrictive monetary policy that led to high interest rates which is still unparalleled today. In 2008 – 09, the tides turned as global credit crisis eroded confidence which was intact since [...]
The US payroll data came out today and it was bad. Although Jobless rate is still respectable at 3.6% the new Job creation has virtually come to a halt. Markets are now pricing three FED rate cuts this year with some investment bankers sticking their neck out for a [...]
Mehul Daya writes and I concur…. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc it’s simple: it’s all about Dollar-Liquidity. Slowdown in global trade is putting pressure on creation and velocity of Dollars via value-chains/Dollar-leverage since the Dollar is the lubricant of the global financial system. See charts below in thread. Long USD Chart [...]
I think we are in early stages of bear market, with very poor returns for equity investors in the years to come. But it seems looking at the chart below there is just too much bearishness. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The smart money index just continues to plunge. [...]
Louis-Vincent Gave writes …..Investors will be happy to bid farewell to 2018, a miserable year in which all assets underperformed US dollar cash. For next year, three questions are critical: Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc 1) Will the US-dollar liquidity squeeze ease? 2) Will the expanding US budget deficit prove [...]
Financial markets look flawless and unblemished just before topping. but from the eyes of a socionomist (in this case my friend Neppollian) this flawless demeanour is what makes participants careless and fearless. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc stevepb / Pixabay However to the trained and seasoned eyes it leaves many [...]
The forecast is clear – which has been Henrik thesis for long time! We are in the deflationary (disinflationary bust) part of the economic slowdown caused by Fed hike and QT. Coincident economic numbers are not showing this yet (GDP, employment etc.) – but soon the slowdown will be [...]
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