“People and firms reward the providers of dangerously misleading information more than they reward truth tellers Daniel” Kahneman

“Optimism is highly valued, socially and in the market; people and firms reward the providers of dangerously misleading information more than they reward truth tellers. One of the lessons of the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession is that there are periods in which competition, among experts [...]


More Money Than Fools Or More Fools Than Money

“More money than fools or more fools than money. When there is more money than fools asset prices go up. When there are more fools than money, asset prices go down.” – Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal Research Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc At last March’s Mauldin [...]


RIP Jack Bogle, Welcome Home

“Overoptimism and overconfidence are two well-known psychological traits of our species. They are particularly dangerous in the late stages of an economic cycle where these terrible twins result in investors overestimating return and underestimating risk – a potentially lethal combination of errors.” – James Montier, GMO The Late Cycle Lament: The [...]


How The Market And Economic Machines Work

“History is on our side.  There have been 13 Fed tightening cycles since 1950. Ten of these landed the economy in recession, and neither the consensus nor the Fed staff saw them coming when they actually started. So before knowing anything else, the fact that we have been in [...]


Late in the Cycle

“I saw her today at the reception A glass of wine in her hand I knew she was gonna meet her connection At her feet was her footloose man You can’t always get what you want You can’t always get what you want You can’t always get what you want But if you try sometimes you [...]


Opportunity, Not Crisis, Looms In 2019?

“I think we’re going to see a lot more of what we just saw, which is a lot more volatility, it’s really easy to say ‘I’m really bullish’ or ‘I’m really bearish.’ I kind of see a two-sided market.” “I think in the next year it will be, from where [...]


The End Of The Beginning

“The training wheels are coming off. Next week, the European Central Bank will conduct its final meeting of 2018 and is widely expected to announce the cessation of its QE asset purchase program. The ECB began buying sovereign bonds in 2015 and added corporate debt to the mix a [...]


The Big Short

“When it comes to investing, we never know what the future holds or where we are going, but we should do all we can to know where we stand, since the current position of the cycle has powerful implications for how we should cope with its possible future.” – [...]


Charts, Charts And More Charts

Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand to compensate them for the risks they take. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Risk [...]


Has A Non-Recessionary Bear Market Begun?

“… [W]e cannot do everything ourselves; different people are more capable in different matters… [I]n cases where we ourselves cannot be present, the vicarious faith of friends is substituted; and he who impairs that confidence, attacks the common bulwark of all men, and as far as depends on him, [...]


Take The Shot

“I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” – Michael Jordan Q3 hedge fund letters, [...]


Critical Tipping Points – A Dashboard Of Indicators

“A generational opportunity hidden in plain sight. Its status of loneliness and ‘vox clamantis in deserto’ (a voice crying out in the wilderness) makes for potential outsized returns.” – Francesco Filia Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Plan 1: Buy-hold-rebalance. Buy lowest fee index funds you can find.  In 40% [...]


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