The Trade of a Lifetime is Forming
“I will go to my grave believing that the financial crisis happened because of bubbles made by easy money.” – Stan Druckenmiller, Former Chairman and President, Duquesne Capital (Bloomberg... Read More
On My Radar: What Inflation Means For You
“So the reason why we raised interest rates [in late 1999-2000] is because—generally is because we see inflation as moving up—or, in danger of moving up significantly, and we... Read More
Households Are “All In” Stocks, Above 2000 and 2007 Peaks
“Even if you are on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.” – Will Rogers Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more I keep a... Read More
We Will Burn The Debt
"Cycles are inevitable. Every once in a while, an up- or down-leg goes on for a long time and/or to a great extreme, and people start to say 'this... Read More
The average state pension is 50% underfunded
“If we pay attention to cycles, we can come out ahead. If we study past cycles, understand their origins and import, and keep alert for the next one, we... Read More
U.S.-China Decoupling Will be Among the Biggest Events of the Early 21st Century
“ There’s a way to do it better – find it.” - Thomas Edison ” It’s kind of fun to do the impossible.” - Walt Disney Q3 2019 hedge fund letters,... Read More
Unlike Any Period Since The Late 1930s
"I believe that we are on a classic journey that we haven’t seen in our lifetimes but has happened many times before, most recently in the late 1930’s. It... Read More
We are approaching the ends of both the short-term and long-term debt cycles in the world’s three major reserve currencies
“I’m not saying that the past is prologue in an identical way. What I am saying that the basic cause/effect relationships are analogous: a) approaching the ends of the short-term... Read More
Ray Dalio’s Three Big Issues And The 1930s Analogue
“…nothing is new under the sun. Almost everything we see happened before at some point in human history, though of course with different details and magnitude. So we can’t... Read More
Global debt expansion and central bank credibility is a major concern
“The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower... Read More
High Yield an excellent leading indicator for the stock market and then the economy
Foreign exchange volatility is not new in modern finance, though relatively speaking it has been reasonably muted in recent decades compared to preceding ones. Uncertainty around foreign exchange suppresses... Read More
Valuation Dashboard Alarming Signs
Like the pine trees linin’ the windin’ road I’ve got a name, I’ve got a name Like the singin’ bird and the croakin’ toad I’ve got a name, I’ve got a name And... Read More
Recessions and Top 12 Bear Markets
“I think now is a good time 1) to look at past paradigms and paradigm shifts and 2) to focus on the paradigm that we are in and how... Read More
Once you strip out the FAANGM stocks, the S&P 500 has managed to generate the grand total of a 6% average annual advance in the past six years. That’s it!
“As for the markets, here’s the truth. The global ex-USA stock market index this cycle failed – failed! – to make a new high. It came close but never... Read More
David Rosenberg: What’s going to happen?
“With the yield curve (3-month Treasury Bill vs. 10-year Treasury Note) now inverted on a more sustained basis, one can expect more downward pressure on equities, more volatility and... Read More
Mauldin Strategic Investment Conference 2019 (Part IV – Felix Zulauf)
“Optimizing learning and instruction often requires going against one’s intuitions, deviating from standard instructional practices, and managing one’s own learning activities in new ways.” – Dr. Bjork #TOVOInstitute #Intelligent... Read More
Dr. Lacy Hunt – Federal debt accelerations ultimately lead to lower, not higher, interest rates
“The only outcomes are an orderly restructure or unorderly restructure [of the debts].” – William White, Former Chief Economist of the Bank for International Settlements Q1 hedge fund letters, conference,... Read More
These high valuations are coming at a time when investors are heavily invested in stocks
“Corrections happen during growth-rate cycle slowdowns, they don’t require a recession.” – Lakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research Institute Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc On Sunday afternoon, I fly to... Read More
As an investor, you make the most money when you do things that other people aren’t willing to do, like taking risks others shun
“As an investor, you make the most money when you do things that other people aren’t willing to do, like taking risks others shun. Attractive investment opportunities arise when... Read More
History of Bull and Bear Markets
“Peace is its own reward.” – Mahatma Gandhi This week’s post is holiday-weekend short. Grab that coffee and find your favorite chair. You’ll find a simple chart that shows the... Read More
The elephant in the room is debt
“The economy is a collection of emotions.” – Kenneth Langone Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Speaking to first-year NYU medical students, Kenneth G. Langone and his wife, Elaine, stepped... Read More
Recession Obsession And Why It Matters
“Meanwhile, over the past 10 years, low interest rates meant that we kept bringing tomorrow’s growth forward to today. Unfortunately, we may now have run out of tomorrow’s growth,... Read More
