“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” – Herb Stein, Senior Fellow of the American Enterprise Institute Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Over the last several... Read More
“I will say it’s about the most challenging time to talk about the market and the economy I can remember since I got in the business. I actually believe... Read More
“I will go to my grave believing that the financial crisis happened because of bubbles made by easy money.” – Stan Druckenmiller, Former Chairman and President, Duquesne Capital (Bloomberg... Read More
“So the reason why we raised interest rates [in late 1999-2000] is because—generally is because we see inflation as moving up—or, in danger of moving up significantly, and we... Read More
“Even if you are on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.” – Will Rogers Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more I keep a... Read More
"Cycles are inevitable. Every once in a while, an up- or down-leg goes on for a long time and/or to a great extreme, and people start to say 'this... Read More
“If we pay attention to cycles, we can come out ahead. If we study past cycles, understand their origins and import, and keep alert for the next one, we... Read More
“ There’s a way to do it better – find it.” - Thomas Edison ” It’s kind of fun to do the impossible.” - Walt Disney Q3 2019 hedge fund letters,... Read More
"I believe that we are on a classic journey that we haven’t seen in our lifetimes but has happened many times before, most recently in the late 1930’s. It... Read More
“I’m not saying that the past is prologue in an identical way. What I am saying that the basic cause/effect relationships are analogous: a) approaching the ends of the short-term... Read More
“…nothing is new under the sun. Almost everything we see happened before at some point in human history, though of course with different details and magnitude. So we can’t... Read More
“The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower... Read More
Foreign exchange volatility is not new in modern finance, though relatively speaking it has been reasonably muted in recent decades compared to preceding ones. Uncertainty around foreign exchange suppresses... Read More
Like the pine trees linin’ the windin’ road I’ve got a name, I’ve got a name Like the singin’ bird and the croakin’ toad I’ve got a name, I’ve got a name And... Read More
“I think now is a good time 1) to look at past paradigms and paradigm shifts and 2) to focus on the paradigm that we are in and how... Read More
“As for the markets, here’s the truth. The global ex-USA stock market index this cycle failed – failed! – to make a new high. It came close but never... Read More
“With the yield curve (3-month Treasury Bill vs. 10-year Treasury Note) now inverted on a more sustained basis, one can expect more downward pressure on equities, more volatility and... Read More
“Optimizing learning and instruction often requires going against one’s intuitions, deviating from standard instructional practices, and managing one’s own learning activities in new ways.” – Dr. Bjork #TOVOInstitute #Intelligent... Read More
“The only outcomes are an orderly restructure or unorderly restructure [of the debts].” – William White, Former Chief Economist of the Bank for International Settlements Q1 hedge fund letters, conference,... Read More
“Corrections happen during growth-rate cycle slowdowns, they don’t require a recession.” – Lakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research Institute Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc On Sunday afternoon, I fly to... Read More
“As an investor, you make the most money when you do things that other people aren’t willing to do, like taking risks others shun. Attractive investment opportunities arise when... Read More
“Peace is its own reward.” – Mahatma Gandhi This week’s post is holiday-weekend short. Grab that coffee and find your favorite chair. You’ll find a simple chart that shows the... Read More
