“If we pay attention to cycles, we can come out ahead. If we study past cycles, understand their origins and import, and keep alert for the next one, we don’t have to reinvent the wheel in order to understand every investment environment anew. And we have less of a...
“ There’s a way to do it better – find it.” - Thomas Edison ” It’s kind of fun to do the impossible.” - Walt Disney Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Fresh signs of a global economic slowdown have driven equity markets lower this week and driven expectations for...
"I believe that we are on a classic journey that we haven’t seen in our lifetimes but has happened many times before, most recently in the late 1930’s. It is being driven by the same big forces that drove the dynamics in the late 1930’s. In particular, now, like...
“I’m not saying that the past is prologue in an identical way. What I am saying that the basic cause/effect relationships are analogous: a) approaching the ends of the short-term and long-term debt cycles, while b) the internal politics is driven by large wealth and political gaps, which are producing large...
“…nothing is new under the sun. Almost everything we see happened before at some point in human history, though of course with different details and magnitude. So we can’t throw out precedent completely. Well, except for negative interest rates. That really is something new under the sun.” “Negative rates...
“The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower bound is not a law of nature; it is a policy choice. The central message of this paper is that...
Foreign exchange volatility is not new in modern finance, though relatively speaking it has been reasonably muted in recent decades compared to preceding ones. Uncertainty around foreign exchange suppresses business investment in that the ability to repay debt from a capital project cannot be quantified when the value of...
Like the pine trees linin’ the windin’ road I’ve got a name, I’ve got a name Like the singin’ bird and the croakin’ toad I’ve got a name, I’ve got a name And I carry it with me like my daddy did But I’m living the dream that he kept hid Movin’ me down the...
“I think now is a good time 1) to look at past paradigms and paradigm shifts and 2) to focus on the paradigm that we are in and how it might shift because we are late in the current one and likely approaching a shift.” – Ray Dalio, “Paradigm...
“As for the markets, here’s the truth. The global ex-USA stock market index this cycle failed – failed! – to make a new high. It came close but never managed to take out the prior cycle high in 2007. And it is still down 15% from this cycle’s peak,...
“With the yield curve (3-month Treasury Bill vs. 10-year Treasury Note) now inverted on a more sustained basis, one can expect more downward pressure on equities, more volatility and more credit spread widening.” – David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff + Associates, “Breakfast with Dave” (May 30,...
“Optimizing learning and instruction often requires going against one’s intuitions, deviating from standard instructional practices, and managing one’s own learning activities in new ways.” – Dr. Bjork #TOVOInstitute #Intelligent #Training Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc geralt / Pixabay The greatest bull market of all time began in 1982. Then, a...
“The only outcomes are an orderly restructure or unorderly restructure [of the debts].” – William White, Former Chief Economist of the Bank for International Settlements Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is known as the central banker’s banker. “Orderly or unorderly?” William White joined...
“Corrections happen during growth-rate cycle slowdowns, they don’t require a recession.” – Lakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research Institute Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc On Sunday afternoon, I fly to Dallas to attend the 16th annual Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference (SIC). Last year, I presented on market valuations and...
“As an investor, you make the most money when you do things that other people aren’t willing to do, like taking risks others shun. Attractive investment opportunities arise when you spot some security or some part of the market being ignored and you come to the conclusion that it’s...
“Peace is its own reward.” – Mahatma Gandhi This week’s post is holiday-weekend short. Grab that coffee and find your favorite chair. You’ll find a simple chart that shows the history of cyclical bull and bear markets (with returns before and after inflation). It is easy to read and may...
“The economy is a collection of emotions.” – Kenneth Langone Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Speaking to first-year NYU medical students, Kenneth G. Langone and his wife, Elaine, stepped to the podium. Their announcement shook the room. “From this point on, NYU Medical School is tuition-free for all students,”...
“Meanwhile, over the past 10 years, low interest rates meant that we kept bringing tomorrow’s growth forward to today. Unfortunately, we may now have run out of tomorrow’s growth, and are about to start to regret eating today’s growth yesterday.” – Louis-Vincent Gave, Gavekal Research Q4 hedge fund letters, conference,...
“There’s a lot of reasons to think that it has been a recession predictor for reasons in the past that kind of don’t apply today.” – John Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Is it different this time? Williams is saying yes. The bond market is...
“This U-Turn on nothing fundamentally changing is unprecedented. Three months ago, we were on ‘autopilot’ with the balance sheet and now the bond market is priced for a rate cut this year. The reversal in their stance is stunning.” – Jeffrey Gundlach - CEO, DoubleLine Capital LP Q4 hedge fund...
"Business cycles are a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions and revivals which merge into...
“To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it’s the same with everything...
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