“More money than fools or more fools than money. When there is more money than fools asset prices go up. When there are more fools than money, asset prices go down.” – Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal Research Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc At last March’s Mauldin [...]
“Overoptimism and overconfidence are two well-known psychological traits of our species. They are particularly dangerous in the late stages of an economic cycle where these terrible twins result in investors overestimating return and underestimating risk – a potentially lethal combination of errors.” – James Montier, GMO The Late Cycle Lament: The [...]
[Trump tweets, Xi Jinping, Global debt, the ECB Greenspan Put and Powell QT, He won’t do the same damn thing] Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc “We didn’t start the fire It was always burning Since the world’s been turning We didn’t start the fire No we didn’t light it But we tried to fight [...]
“History is on our side. There have been 13 Fed tightening cycles since 1950. Ten of these landed the economy in recession, and neither the consensus nor the Fed staff saw them coming when they actually started. So before knowing anything else, the fact that we have been in [...]
“I saw her today at the reception A glass of wine in her hand I knew she was gonna meet her connection At her feet was her footloose man You can’t always get what you want You can’t always get what you want You can’t always get what you want But if you try sometimes you [...]
“I think we’re going to see a lot more of what we just saw, which is a lot more volatility, it’s really easy to say ‘I’m really bullish’ or ‘I’m really bearish.’ I kind of see a two-sided market.” “I think in the next year it will be, from where [...]
“The training wheels are coming off. Next week, the European Central Bank will conduct its final meeting of 2018 and is widely expected to announce the cessation of its QE asset purchase program. The ECB began buying sovereign bonds in 2015 and added corporate debt to the mix a [...]
“When it comes to investing, we never know what the future holds or where we are going, but we should do all we can to know where we stand, since the current position of the cycle has powerful implications for how we should cope with its possible future.” – [...]
Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand to compensate them for the risks they take. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Risk [...]
“… [W]e cannot do everything ourselves; different people are more capable in different matters… [I]n cases where we ourselves cannot be present, the vicarious faith of friends is substituted; and he who impairs that confidence, attacks the common bulwark of all men, and as far as depends on him, [...]
“I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” – Michael Jordan Q3 hedge fund letters, [...]
“It is essential for everyone to understand the logical sequence of events that makes these (big debt crises) all play out all the same.” – Ray Dalio “Years of monumental Quantitative Easing / Negative Interest Rates monetary policy affected the behavioral patterns of investors and changed the structure itself of [...]
“A generational opportunity hidden in plain sight. Its status of loneliness and ‘vox clamantis in deserto’ (a voice crying out in the wilderness) makes for potential outsized returns.” – Francesco Filia Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Plan 1: Buy-hold-rebalance. Buy lowest fee index funds you can find. In 40% [...]
“I want to reiterate my headline: managing debt crises is all about spreading out the pain of the bad debts, and this can almost always be done well if one’s debts are in one’s own currency. The biggest risks are typically not from the debts themselves, but from the [...]
“Typically the worst debt bubbles are not accompanied by high and rising inflation, but by asset price inflation financed by debt growth. That is because central banks make the mistake of accommodating debt growth because they are focused on inflation and/or growth—not on debt growth, the asset inflations they [...]
“The key to handling debt crises well lies in policy makers’ knowing how to use their levers well and having the authority that they need to do so, knowing at what rate per year the burdens will have to be spread out, and who will benefit and who will [...]
“I am writing this on the tenth anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis in order to offer the perspective of an investor who navigated that crisis well because I had developed a template for understanding how all debt crises work. I am sharing that template here in the hope of [...]
“[A] grain falling on a red spot can, by domino-like action, cause sliding at other nearby red spots.” – Mark Buchanan, Ubiquity, Why Catastrophes Happen I woke up early last Saturday morning and found John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter on “The Growing Economic Sandpile” in my inbox. In my favorite chair [...]
“The best insurance policy against missing big market moves is to have more than one online brokerage account.” – Barron’s, March 11, 2000 Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or [...]
“With solid household and business confidence, healthy levels of job creation, rising incomes, and fiscal stimulus arriving, there is good reason to expect that this strong performance will continue….” – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on [...]
“The deflationary period we’ve been in has come to an end.” - Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal Research Last March, I shared with you GaveKal Research’s “Four Quadrants Framework.” Louis-Vincent Gave presented at the March 2018 Mauldin Strategic Investment Conference and suggested that we may be in the [...]
“The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs.” “Everyone sort of lives with their rulers in the past and doesn’t look at coming changes.” “Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks, and focus on the movement [...]
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