Opportunity, Not Crisis, Looms In 2019?

“I think we’re going to see a lot more of what we just saw, which is a lot more volatility, it’s really easy to say ‘I’m really bullish’ or ‘I’m really bearish.’ I kind of see a two-sided market.” “I think in the next year it will be, from where [...]


The End Of The Beginning

“The training wheels are coming off. Next week, the European Central Bank will conduct its final meeting of 2018 and is widely expected to announce the cessation of its QE asset purchase program. The ECB began buying sovereign bonds in 2015 and added corporate debt to the mix a [...]


The Big Short

“When it comes to investing, we never know what the future holds or where we are going, but we should do all we can to know where we stand, since the current position of the cycle has powerful implications for how we should cope with its possible future.” – [...]


Charts, Charts And More Charts

Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand to compensate them for the risks they take. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Risk [...]


Has A Non-Recessionary Bear Market Begun?

“… [W]e cannot do everything ourselves; different people are more capable in different matters… [I]n cases where we ourselves cannot be present, the vicarious faith of friends is substituted; and he who impairs that confidence, attacks the common bulwark of all men, and as far as depends on him, [...]


Take The Shot

“I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” – Michael Jordan Q3 hedge fund letters, [...]


Critical Tipping Points – A Dashboard Of Indicators

“A generational opportunity hidden in plain sight. Its status of loneliness and ‘vox clamantis in deserto’ (a voice crying out in the wilderness) makes for potential outsized returns.” – Francesco Filia Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Plan 1: Buy-hold-rebalance. Buy lowest fee index funds you can find.  In 40% [...]


On My Radar: Valuations, Forward Returns And Sandpiles

“[A] grain falling on a red spot can, by domino-like action, cause sliding at other nearby red spots.” – Mark Buchanan, Ubiquity, Why Catastrophes Happen I woke up early last Saturday morning and found John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter on “The Growing Economic Sandpile” in my inbox.  In my favorite chair [...]


Disinflationary Boom?

“The deflationary period we’ve been in has come to an end.” - Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal Research Last March, I shared with you GaveKal Research’s “Four Quadrants Framework.”  Louis-Vincent Gave presented at the March 2018 Mauldin Strategic Investment Conference and suggested that we may be in the [...]


Metrics Flashing Red

“I don’t want to scare the public, but we’ve never had QE. We’ve never had the reversal. Regulations are different. Monetary transmission is different. Governments have borrowed too much debt, and people can panic when things change.” – Jamie Dimon, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan [...]


A Suicidal Debt Buildup

“Here we are doing something that almost seems like a suicide mission… increasing the size of the deficit while we’re raising interest rates.” – Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital I’d add to that quote by saying that the administration is doing everything they can to piss off all of the buyers of our [...]


Your Starting Conditions Matter

“… [T]he trigger for a crisis could be anything if the system as a whole is unstable. Moreover, the size of the trigger event need not bear any relation to the systemic outcome. The lesson is that policymakers should be focused less on identifying potential triggers than on identifying [...]

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