Critical Tipping Points – A Dashboard Of Indicators

“A generational opportunity hidden in plain sight. Its status of loneliness and ‘vox clamantis in deserto’ (a voice crying out in the wilderness) makes for potential outsized returns.” – Francesco Filia Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Plan 1: Buy-hold-rebalance. Buy lowest fee index funds you can find.  In 40% [...]


On My Radar: Valuations, Forward Returns And Sandpiles

“[A] grain falling on a red spot can, by domino-like action, cause sliding at other nearby red spots.” – Mark Buchanan, Ubiquity, Why Catastrophes Happen I woke up early last Saturday morning and found John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter on “The Growing Economic Sandpile” in my inbox.  In my favorite chair [...]


Disinflationary Boom?

“The deflationary period we’ve been in has come to an end.” - Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal Research Last March, I shared with you GaveKal Research’s “Four Quadrants Framework.”  Louis-Vincent Gave presented at the March 2018 Mauldin Strategic Investment Conference and suggested that we may be in the [...]


Metrics Flashing Red

“I don’t want to scare the public, but we’ve never had QE. We’ve never had the reversal. Regulations are different. Monetary transmission is different. Governments have borrowed too much debt, and people can panic when things change.” – Jamie Dimon, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan [...]


A Suicidal Debt Buildup

“Here we are doing something that almost seems like a suicide mission… increasing the size of the deficit while we’re raising interest rates.” – Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital I’d add to that quote by saying that the administration is doing everything they can to piss off all of the buyers of our [...]


Your Starting Conditions Matter

“… [T]he trigger for a crisis could be anything if the system as a whole is unstable. Moreover, the size of the trigger event need not bear any relation to the systemic outcome. The lesson is that policymakers should be focused less on identifying potential triggers than on identifying [...]


The 3.07% “Line In The Sand” Has Been Breached

“The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates… If interest rates are destined to be at low levels, it makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield.” – Warren Buffett on CNBC (May 2017) “Earnings don’t move the overall [...]


Debt Gap

“Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.” “Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names.” “Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.”– Bob Farrell (Rules #2, #7 and #10 of “Farrell’s Ten Market [...]


Margin Debt Is A Good Indicator

“What we anticipate seldom occurs; what we least expect generally happens.” Benjamin Disraeli We’ve been talking about a 3% yield on the 10-year Treasury as a line in the sand.  It may well be.  The important technical number is 3.07%.  A break higher and 4% is not out of the question.  [...]


As Debt Soars, Are We Nearing A Minsky Moment?

“A Minsky moment is a sudden major collapse of asset values, which is part of the credit cycle or business cycle. Such moments occur because long periods of prosperity and increasing value of investments lead to increasing speculation using borrowed money.” China Growth Lower, But Debt Much Higher Wikipedia Global debt has reached [...]


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