In Part I of this report, we laid out the two narratives that the U.S. and China are using to frame relations between the two countries. This week, we will summarize the two positions and examine the potential for war using the historical examples of British policy toward the [...]
Graham Allison published a controversial book in 2017 in which he argued that the probability for a major war increases when an established hegemon faces an emerging power that threatens the hegemon’s position. He used Thucydides, the Greek historian who wrote a history of the war between Sparta and [...]
(N.B. Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the next issue of this report will be published on January 28.) In Part I of this report, we discussed the issues surrounding predicting inflection points, which are defined as reversals of long-term trends. In this week’s issue, we will examine two [...]
(N.B. This will be the last WGR of 2018. Our next report will be published January 7, 2019.) As is our custom, we close out the current year with our geopolitical outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of [...]
Last week, we introduced the characteristics of a reserve currency, including a discussion of the costs and benefits of providing the reserve currency. This week, we will conclude the report with a short explanation of the S.W.I.F.T. network and its importance to international finance. From there, we will discuss [...]
In May, the Trump administration exited the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), otherwise known as the Iran nuclear deal.1 In conjunction with its exit, the U.S. implemented new sanctions and the goal of U.S. policy is to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero barrels by November.Get Our Icahn [...]
Last week, we discussed Venezuela’s economic and political situations. Part II begins with a discussion on migration with a focus on emigrant flows. We include an analysis of the problems caused by migration followed by an examination of the possible end to this crisis and the broader geopolitical issues. [...]
Venezuela has gone from “bad to worse” in recent years. In 1999, Hugo Chavez was elected president and took the country on a journey into Cuba-style socialism. Persistent government intrusion into the economy reduced private sector involvement. Although the oil sector was able to generate enough revenue to allow Chavez [...]
(N.B. Due to the Labor Day holiday, the next report will be published on September 10.)Know more about Russia than your friends: Get our free ebook on how the Soviet Union became Putin's Russia. [...]
Over the past few months, Turkey has become a major topic of interest. Recep Erdogan won re-election to the presidency in June 2018. This event was important because a referendum on a new constitution in 2017 gave the office of the president sweeping powers; the previous constitution was based [...]
On July 1, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO for short, became Mexico’s first leftist president in over three decades,1 running on anti-establishment and anti-corruption platforms. The 64-year-old activist won with over 53% of the vote, the most since Mexico moved to a multi-party system. For the first time [...]
This week, we will conclude our study on China’s foreign reserves. In Part I, we discussed the evolution of foreign reserves from gold to the dollar, with a historical focus. In Part II, we used the macroeconomic saving identity to analyze the economic relationship between China and the U.S. [...]
In our travels we are almost always asked about the government debt and deficits. If there is any area of confusion and misunderstanding, public finance could easily top the list. In response to these persistent questions, we are publishing this Frequently Asked Questions paper to address some of those [...]
We often get questions about China’s foreign reserves. The fear is that China’s massive “pile” of foreign exchange reserves is a risk factor for U.S. markets. In the first part of this report, we will discuss the evolution of foreign reserves from gold to the dollar, with a historical [...]
(Due to the Memorial Day holiday, our next report will be published on June 4.) On Saturday, May 11, the New York Times ran an article on the threat of Iranian cyberattacks.1 Although the report didn’t necessarily break any new ground, cyberwar does pose some interesting issues for American hegemony. [...]
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