Where Is That Confounded Recession?

“Ah, excuse me. Oh, will ya excuse me. I’m just trying to find the recession. Has anybody seen the recession?” Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Ask that question in a roomful of forecasters, and you’ll hear plenty of reasons why the next recession is dead ahead: the inverted...

Recommendation For Bond Investors: Don’t Fight Financial Repression

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released two supplemental reports this month—the first reveals budget scenarios it “did not have enough time” to include in June’s 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, and the second shows what needs to happen for policy makers to reach certain government debt targets. Get The Timeless Reading...

A Recession Indicator For Independent Thinkers, Part 2

Have you ever lacked for information about America’s various debt burdens? Twenty-odd years ago, if you paid any attention to debt, you might have relied on original source data to stay current. But the times they are-a-changing, aren’t they? In today’s high-tech, data-rich world, anyone who follows financial news...

A Recession Indicator For Independent Thinkers, Part 1

Last month we took sides in the ongoing debate about the Great Yield Curve Scare—we argued that the curve hasn’t flattened enough to deliver a strong recession signal at this point in time. We showed that the recent flattening is similar to those that occurred at various stages of...

Contrarian View on the Great Yield Curve Scare

Media coverage of most business-cycle indicators waxes and wanes with changes in the economy, but so far in 2018, the yield curve indicator is all wax. It seems like everyone has something to say about the yield curve slope, and many commentators are jumping from a flatter curve to...

New Research Paper Foretells QE Domination

The title refers to a consensus-shattering paper that was unveiled at the University of Chicago last month before a Who’s Who of economists and central bankers. Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on...

Was The Fed Skillful Or Just Lucky?

“During the 1980s and 1990s, most industrial-country central banks were able to cage, if not entirely tame, the inflation dragon.” —Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke began his oft-cited “helicopter speech” in 2002 with a few kind words about his peers, including the excerpt above. Speaking for central bankers, he took a large...

Inflation Indicator To Watch

“Inflation comes from too much money chasing too few goods.” –Many an economics professor But does it really? In Part 1 of this series, I said I would challenge popular beliefs about inflation, while at the same time proposing an alternative theory. I also promised that the theory leads to an...

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