Favorite Equites: Peltz, Ubben, Bronses, Klabin and Herro

Today, the Invest for Kids Conference took place in Chicago. 100% of the revenue raised is given to charity. Additionally, some famous speakers were there. Nelson Peltz, Steve Romick, Jeff Uben, Sam Zell, Kyle Bass, Steve Mandel, David Herro and many others. We will be posting more so come [...]

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Predicting The Market Is Easy, Its Called Form DEF 14A

Yes, You Can Predict the Future It’s election time here in the U.S. and we now know the next president is going to be Barack Obama. I can’t think of any other event in which, people nationwide, engage in predicting the future. Who’s going to win, who’s going to lose? The [...]

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Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Behavioral Finance and the CIA

Taken Oct. & Nov. 2012 by Kyle Mowery, Founder of GrizzlyRock Capital, notes from The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards Heuer, Jr. Chapter 1: “Thinking About Thinking” Thinking analytically is a skill learned via doing (page 2) Some of the CIA’s best analysts leaned through failures early in their careers (page 2) The concept [...]

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Kerrisdale Capital on the China Medical Short Saga

The famous short selling hedge fund, Kerrisdale Capital, is out with its Q3 letter. Kerrisdale Partners LP achieved a quarterly return, net to investors, of 9.1% for the quarter ended September 30, 2012. The S&P 500 index returned 6.4% during that time. Since inception, the fund has achieved a return, net to investors, [...]

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The Hidden Value in Vistaprint

Dear Partners: In the third quarter of 2012, our Partnership returned 8.9% net of fees and expenses. As of September 30th, our year to date net return is 27.8%. On average, we held 17% of our assets in cash throughout this year. There’s No Such Thing As a Free…Drug Free options are [...]

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US Homeowners' Equity is Nowhere Near 2006 Levels

IN THIS EDITION A VICIOUS CYCLE Economic data the world over indicate that a global economic slowdown is well underway. Central banks have already responded with fresh stimulus, as anticipated by financial markets. But just as the economic recovery of 2009-2011 was largely artificial and, thus, disappointing in key respects, so [...]

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RSST's Market Cap 35% Net Cash, LT Contracts, Reduced CapEx: Buyout?

OVERVIEW Trading at only 3.5x EV/LTM EBITDA, RRSat Global Communications Network Ltd. (NASDAQ:RRST) (“RRST” or the “Company”) is an underfollowed, growing, high free cash flow generating, dividend paying company with a predictable revenue stream, healthy balance sheet, attractive industry dynamics and a new CEO. In many ways, RRST reminds us [...]

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Quantitative Value Shorting Part II: Earnings Yield & Price Over Book

In response to many questions from the Short Selling Blog: Short Algorithm The screen that featured in the article can be described as follows: ·         US companies with market capitalisation greater than one billion dollars and with 20 day average trading volume greater than 100,000 shares.  These companies are less volatile than their [...]

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The Effect of Negative Interest Rates on the Economy

IN THIS EDITION PAR FOR THE PATHOLOGICAL COURSE Economic policymakers are like children in that they are held only partially accountable for their mistakes and misdeeds. And just as children learn to selectively deny responsibility to get away with naughty behaviour, so policymakers learn that they, too, can conveniently disown the [...]

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Mellanox Technologies ($MLNX): More on the Short Thesis

We believe that shares of Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. (NASDAQ:MLNX) are highly overvalued, not only because it is a semiconductor company operating in a small and technologically fast-changing niche trading at an absurdly high valuation, but, equally as important, the Intel CPU chip upgrade cycle which fueled its past few quarters [...]

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The Emergence of Social Impact Bonds

Last month, the state of Massachusetts launched a program to offer social impact bonds. These bonds, which are also called “Pay for Success Bonds” have been very successful in the UK, providing vital funding for social programs as well as handsome returns for investors. In fact, the UK had so [...]

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How Hedge Funds Can Use Options to Reduce Risk

Investing in any sort of capacity can entail quite a bit of monetary risk. Hedge funds are no different, even if they are designed to alleviate the risk from high profile investors’ other investments. Just because a hedge fund is supposed to make money when other markets might be [...]

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Nokia: Just Punched or NOCKed Out?

Nokia’s Corporation (NYSE:NOK) fortunes have been mixed of late. Despite sales of over 4 million Lumia handsets, the company reported a $1b operating loss in Q2. The recent increase in its stock price attributed to insider buying as a confidence boosting measure has not worked; Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS)  downgraded it to a sell on [...]

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Procter & Gamble Could Get an Olympics Boost

The London Olympics with a budget of almost $15 billion kicked off with much fanfare last weekend. For worldwide partners of the Olympics like The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) and partners like apparel maker Adidas AG (PINK:ADDYY) however, the games are a play at increasing the bottom line. Adidas expects the Olympics to increase sales [...]

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Perion Network: 3.7x EV/EBITDA, Good Management and a Catalyst

  OVERVIEW Trading at only 3.7x 2012E EBITDA and 5.8x 2012E Net Income, Perion Network Ltd (NASDAQ:PERI) (“PERI” or the “Company”) is a misunderstood, underfollowed company whose stock has declined in large part due to steps intentionally taken by a new CEO when he arrived in the summer of 2010.  These steps created [...]

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The US is Caught in a Debt Trap

  IN THIS EDITION CAUGHT IN A DEBT TRAP As with much of the euro area, the US is in a debt trap. All the politicking in DC does not change this economic fact. The federal debt is going to be devalued. Yet even now, amid a new economic slowdown, US consumer [...]

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Click Through Rates Could Be Deciding Factor In Google's Q2 Report

Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) is announcing their Q2 2012 earnings results today. Despite many side projects, Google remains today primarily an advertising business, with approximately 97% of revenues coming from its core search engine advertising business. As such, Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG)'s earnings are largely dependent on key advertising metrics such [...]

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Why HPQ Could Be Chanos' Value Trap: The Long (Long) Case

    On Wednesday, Jim Chanos CEO of the short biased Kynikos Associates hedge fund, called Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) “the ultimate value trap for investors.” Chanos states that many investors get stuck in value traps after following other famous investors into a stock. So.... we will take that logic and present the long case [...]

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