Great Traders Have Balls, But…

We are in the business of making mistakes. The only difference between the winners and the losers is that the winners make small mistakes, while the losers make big mistakes. ~ Ned Davis When I became a winner, I said, “I figured it out, but if I’m wrong, I’m getting [...]

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Minsky And The Levy/Kalecki Profit Equation

I want to talk Minsky and the Levy/Kalecki Profit Equation Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc 3844328 / Pixabay This may sound a bit heady, but don’t worry. We’re going to break it all down Barney style and then walk you through how you can use the frameworks for understanding the [...]

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How To Earn $1 Billion Dollars

The father of modern physics, Albert Einstein was unquestionably a brilliant mind. Not only did he change the world with his work in physics, but he was also an avid sailor, played the violin and shared this gem with the world: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Compound interest is [...]

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Using Political Prediction Markets For Fun And Profit

Elections are interesting to us as macro traders. High-profile political election results can move the markets in a big way, Just look at how crazy the E-mini S&P’s traded during the US’s 2016 presidential election… Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc They had a 5.5% crash and rally when the [...]

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The Fed Put Is Real And China Stimulates

In our December MIR titled Genghis John and Building Snowmobiles during the midst of the market rout I wrote the following noting the key macro variables we didn’t and couldn’t know at the time: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Free-Photos / Pixabay We can’t predict with high certainty exactly how [...]

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Micro: Construction Partners (ROAD)

The following writeup on ROAD is done by an investor I often collaborate with but who must remain nameless for compliance reasons. He’s the same value investor who wrote up GTX for us in our November MIR (link here). GTX is up around 18% since and this month he’s [...]

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Ghenghis John And The Ultimate Mental Model For Markets

Revelation A loser is someone — individual or group — who cannot build snowmobiles when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change; Whereas, A winner is someone —  individual or group — who can build snowmobiles and employ them in an appropriate fashion, when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops [...]

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Playing The Player Update: Another Major Buy Signal

The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone. First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand, which could result in a major move. Second, the chart must show that the [...]

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EM Hoodwinking Investors And A BIG Bond Short

Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings… Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot an email to alex@macro-ops.com and we’ll share it with the group. Articles I’m reading - Jason Zweig writing for the WSJ published an article (link here) [...]

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Michael Mauboussin – Breaking Down A Market Edge

To be an active investor, you must believe in inefficiency and efficiency. You need inefficiency to get opportunities and efficiency for those opportunities to turn into returns. ~ Michael Mauboussin Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc A limited amount of alpha exists out there in the trading universe. And these [...]

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The Danger Of “Vision Macro” And How To Avoid It

“Our knowledge can only be finite, while our ignorance must necessarily be infinite.” ~ Karl Popper Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc rawpixel / Pixabay Something that’s helped me in my trading journey is adopting the practice of multivariate critical thinking (MCT). MCT is the application of considering multiple hypotheses and then [...]

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Investing In Shipping Stocks: Lessons From Walter Schloss

He knows how to identify securities that sell at considerably less than their value to a private owner; And that’s all he does … He owns many more stocks than I do and is far less interested in the underlying nature of the business; I don’t seem to have [...]

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Market Murmurations And 60 Million Frenchmen

One of the coolest things to watch in nature is a Starling murmuration. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc If you’ve never seen one before then give this video a watch. Starlings -- which are small and not particularly intelligent birds -- are somehow able to form these amazingly complex and [...]

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Stock Shopping List For 2019

Special Announcement - Macro Ops Collective Deadline Extended! We got a flood of emails on Jan. 1 from many of you saying you missed the deadline this week for the Collective because of vacation and other holiday commitments. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc We have decided to extend the Collective [...]

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Full Capitulation In US Stocks Not Here Yet

Following is just a short note with some things I’m looking at in the market and what I want to see before we start getting more aggressive on the long side. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc First, the Russell small-cap index is knocking up against major support this week [...]

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Uber Cannibals, Bond Traders vs Stock Traders, And The Power Of Now

Here’s your latest Friday Macro Musings. As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot us an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group. Latest Articles/Videos - The Bullish Case For US Stocks — Alex explains why sentiment indicators are signaling a potential bottom in [...]

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The Bullish Case For US Stocks

Sentiment, positioning, and technicals ALL say that we’re getting close to the bottom of this move. And the market is setting up for a monster rally (at least in US stocks). Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Let’s start with sentiment. We’re still waiting for the capitulation spike in bearish sentiment [...]

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Walt Disney’s Paper Route And The Spread Of Ideas

Here’s your latest Friday Macro Musings. As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot us an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc New MIR Issue Out, Sign Up Now — The December MIR is now available! Alex [...]

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