Trading Politics – Part 1

Tyler here. This month I started a video series called Trading Politics over on our partner youtube channel Fallible. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more kreatikar / Pixabay The first video introduces the most popular political prediction market in the United States, PredictIt. In the past we’ve used the prediction markets on...

Why The Traditional Financial Advisory Model Will Fail

How Financial Advisors Can Survive The Low-Fee Apocalypse ETFs and robo-advisors are killing the traditional financial advisory model. Those that want to survive need to overhaul their approach. The standard 1% AUM fee no longer works. The future success of financial advisors is through subscription-based, freemium business models. Advisors that...

The Next Deep Value Corner of The Market

In my last article I shared the strategies of three famous value investors. Each investor had one shared theme: focus on downside protection. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more 200degrees / Pixabay These investors knew that in order to generate outsized returns, they needed to not lose money. Not losing...

It’s The Downside That Matters

As investors, we want to ensure we’ve done all we can to profit from our hard work and due diligence. We read annual reports, scroll through slide deck presentations and read earnings transcripts. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more We’re business owners. Investing in actual businesses, not blips on...

Investor Letters

This edition is LOADED with investor letters as we clear the deck for one of our favorites: Scott Miller. We’ll touch on some other things, such as a trader turning $700 into $100K+. Artko Capital continues to kill it. And Howard Marks discusses negative rates. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters,...

Great Traders Have Balls, But…

We are in the business of making mistakes. The only difference between the winners and the losers is that the winners make small mistakes, while the losers make big mistakes. ~ Ned Davis When I became a winner, I said, “I figured it out, but if I’m wrong, I’m getting...

Minsky And The Levy/Kalecki Profit Equation

I want to talk Minsky and the Levy/Kalecki Profit Equation Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc 3844328 / Pixabay This may sound a bit heady, but don’t worry. We’re going to break it all down Barney style and then walk you through how you can use the frameworks for understanding the...

How To Earn $1 Billion Dollars

The father of modern physics, Albert Einstein was unquestionably a brilliant mind. Not only did he change the world with his work in physics, but he was also an avid sailor, played the violin and shared this gem with the world: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Compound interest is...

Using Political Prediction Markets For Fun And Profit

Elections are interesting to us as macro traders. High-profile political election results can move the markets in a big way, Just look at how crazy the E-mini S&P’s traded during the US’s 2016 presidential election… Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc They had a 5.5% crash and rally when the...

The Fed Put Is Real And China Stimulates

In our December MIR titled Genghis John and Building Snowmobiles during the midst of the market rout I wrote the following noting the key macro variables we didn’t and couldn’t know at the time: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Free-Photos / Pixabay We can’t predict with high certainty exactly...

Micro: Construction Partners (ROAD)

The following writeup on ROAD is done by an investor I often collaborate with but who must remain nameless for compliance reasons. He’s the same value investor who wrote up GTX for us in our November MIR (link here). GTX is up around 18% since and this month he’s...

Ghenghis John And The Ultimate Mental Model For Markets

Revelation A loser is someone — individual or group — who cannot build snowmobiles when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change; Whereas, A winner is someone —  individual or group — who can build snowmobiles and employ them in an appropriate fashion, when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops...

Playing The Player Update: Another Major Buy Signal

The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone. First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand, which could result in a major move. Second, the chart must show that the...

EM Hoodwinking Investors And A BIG Bond Short

Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings… Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot an email to alex@macro-ops.com and we’ll share it with the group. Articles I’m reading - Jason Zweig writing for the WSJ published an article (link here)...

Michael Mauboussin – Breaking Down A Market Edge

To be an active investor, you must believe in inefficiency and efficiency. You need inefficiency to get opportunities and efficiency for those opportunities to turn into returns. ~ Michael Mauboussin Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc A limited amount of alpha exists out there in the trading universe. And these...

The Danger Of “Vision Macro” And How To Avoid It

“Our knowledge can only be finite, while our ignorance must necessarily be infinite.” ~ Karl Popper Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc rawpixel / Pixabay Something that’s helped me in my trading journey is adopting the practice of multivariate critical thinking (MCT). MCT is the application of considering multiple hypotheses and then...

Market Murmurations And 60 Million Frenchmen

One of the coolest things to watch in nature is a Starling murmuration. Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc If you’ve never seen one before then give this video a watch. Starlings -- which are small and not particularly intelligent birds -- are somehow able to form these amazingly complex and...

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