Financial Success Formula Failure

The US economy grew at a 2.1% annualized pace in the second quarter, according to data released last week. That was better than economists expected but hardly impressive. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc rawpixel / Pixabay Even President Trump recognized this, tweeting the growth rate was “not bad considering we have the very [...]


We Are In For Decades Of Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy

President Trump recently nominated Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She is the United States director for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which I had never heard of until her nomination. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc TheDigitalArtist / Pixabay Shelton is a Republican and believes [...]


Corporate Debt Is At Risk Of A Flash Crash

The world is awash in debt. While some countries are more indebted than others, very few are in good shape. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The entire world is roughly 225% leveraged to its economic output. Emerging markets are a bit less and advanced economies a little more. But regardless, everyone’s “real” [...]


The Cold, Hard Math Tells Netflix Could Crash 70%

It’s official... it’s the beginning of the end for Netflix (NFLX). Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc As you may have heard, the online video company made a troubling announcement... This quarter, for the first time ever, it lost American subscribers. Hundreds of thousands of them. The stock plunged more than 11% on the [...]


Walmart Is Coming For Amazon

Late last year, the company overtook Apple to became the third-largest online retailer in the US. Only Amazon and eBay are larger. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Walmart is quickly growing its online presence by scooping up smaller online retailers like, which sells everything from laptops to sunscreen—often at [...]


Libra Is Nothing More Than A Nice Idea

What kind of money will we use in the future? Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The answer might seem obvious: dollars, euros, yen, and other government-issued fiat currencies. Most of us have never known anything else. Yet these currencies aren’t natural phenomena. People created them. People can also abandon them for [...]


Are We In Recession Yet?

I’m often asked if recession is coming. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc For quite some time now, my answer has been: “Yes, but not just yet.” That’s still what I think today, but more of the early warning signals I have used in the past are beginning to flash again. I see some [...]


This Is Your Last Chance To Dump Netflix Stock?

As you may have heard, Netflix (NFLX) bombed on earnings results this week. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc mohamed_hassan / Pixabay The company fell short of its growth target by more than two million subscriptions. And for the first time in eight years, it reported a subscriber loss in the [...]


This Economy Left Millions of Americans Behind

Remember “No Child Left Behind,” George W. Bush’s education reform plan? Congress passed it in 2001. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc geralt / Pixabay Whether that law actually helped is subject to debate, but Bush picked a good name for it. Humans are social creatures. Our instincts tell us to [...]


The Problem With Keynesian Economics

In The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, John Maynard Keynes wrote: Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc geralt / Pixabay “The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by [...]


Google’s World Domination Has Just Begun

At a $1.04-trillion valuation, Microsoft (MSFT) is the biggest public company in the world Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Its stock has shot up 480% in the past decade... And an incredible 138,000% since it IPO’d in 1986! Microsoft achieved this by creating one of the best-selling products ever: Microsoft Windows. This will probably [...]


What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing

There are 2,208 billionaires on earth, according to Forbes. But only three are rich enough to qualify as “centi-billionaires”—worth $100 billion or more. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Amazon (AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos is #1. Microsoft founder (MSFT) Bill Gates is #2. #3 will probably surprise you. It’s not super-investor Warren Buffett. It’s [...]


This Tobacco Stock Is A Big Winner From E-Cigarette Bans

In late June, San Francisco banned e-cigarette sales completely. That means no brick and mortar sales. And no e-cigarette deliveries for online purchases. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Many cities already restrict vaping and e-cigarette sales. But San Francisco is the first major US city to ban sales outright. Granted, it’s [...]


The Fed May Give Trump His Rate Cut, But It Won’t Help

Investors are in a buying mood despite many economic warning signs. Why? Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc kalhh / Pixabay For some, it’s because they expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and otherwise “stimulate” the economy. They believe (correctly) it would drive stock and real estate prices higher. At the [...]


Freight Slowdown Is A Terrible Sign For The Economy

Just as an army moves on its stomach, an economy moves on ships, trucks, and planes. They carry the goods whose purchase adds up to growth. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Nowadays many goods are digital, delivered electronically. But we still need lots of physical stuff which must travel [...]


The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment

Unemployment is the lowest it’s been in 50 years. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc That means most people who want to work can find a job. It also means people are making more money and buying more stuff. All good. More people working is always positive. But a low unemployment [...]


Yes, The Personal Finance Industry Is A Scam

I’m bouncing off of Kashana Cauley’s mini-rant in GQ about Suze Orman and the personal finance “industry” in general. The key paragraph here: Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc rawpixel / Pixabay This past weekend, CNBC reminded us of Orman’s distaste for coffee: “If you waste money on coffee, it’s like ‘peeing one [...]


Big Tech Break-Up Won’t Happen For This One Reason

The US government recently announced it will launch an investigation into “big tech.” Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Simon / Pixabay It is looking into whether Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), and Facebook (FB) are too powerful and should be broken up. These are the 3rd-, 4th-, and 6th-largest companies on earth. [...]

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