Inversion And Fear Lead To Recession

The Fed’s new Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG) incorporates asset prices, an acknowledgement of what was sorely missing in the years that led up to the financial crisis. This time a year ago, the UIG was at 2.54%, well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for 11 straight months. It hit [...]

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Not All Inflation Is Created Equal

In theory if you net out the volatility typically associated with items such as milk and gasoline prices, you get a more reliable gauge of price movements. “The CPI is based on a survey of what households are buying; the PCE is based on surveys of what businesses are selling.” The [...]

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The Great Contagion

Hyperbole is such a vile term. Defined as “extravagant exaggeration,” we are nothing short of drowning in it. What little is left of journalistic integrity is sacrificed daily at the altar of hyperbole. Politicians have raised their rhetoric to such deafening volumes their speech writers are at the risk [...]

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When Tell Tale Economic Signals Flash Falsities

A quick perusal of the financial press revealed a treasure trove of write-ups on PIMCO’s Richard Clarida, the recently named nominee to be Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board. Coverage of one Michelle Bowman, nominated the same day to serve as a governor on the Board was, however, [...]

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The Bounty Hunter And The Fugitive Collateral

‘Tis the season for bunnies, baskets and bill auctions. Wait – one of those did not belong. And yet, April will herald Treasury bill auctions that put optimists’ posits to the test. Is the spike in short rates a technical glitch that will right itself or is there an [...]

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Powell & Goliath – Riding Out The Jay Curve

How goes the business of “watching the paint dry”? As boring as the Fed planned? Maybe the stormy markets and Mother Nature are in cahoots and scheming to keep winter alive and as vicious as she’s ever been. From my snowy perch in New York, I can certainly report [...]

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Real Estate Roulette – Does The House Always Win?

Dear Friends, So much for the sunny, funny, isle of Manhattan. Travel snafus related to the lovely ‘thundersnow’ unleashing her fury on New York scuttled my writing schedule, if you’ll pardon the late arrival in your inbox.   Check out our H2 hedge fund letters here. PIRO4D / Pixabay  Pexels / PixabayThe good news [...]

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Of Latvian Laundry & Italian Idolatry

Dear Friends, Greetings from the sunny, and oft times funny, isle of Manhattan. Spring is springing, infusing the air with the promise only the changing of the seasons can induce. What a delight to bear witness to the beauty only unique New York can offer — fumes, sirens, blaring horns [...]

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