The Fed’s new Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG) incorporates asset prices, an acknowledgement of what was sorely missing in the years that led up to the financial crisis. This time a year ago, the UIG was at 2.54%, well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for 11 straight months. It hit [...]
But context is a must. Consider that in 1999, median income was $57,909. From that point, it drifted down to $52,666 in 2012. It would not be until 2016 that paychecks finally recaptured their 1999 levels, and these figures are nominal, as in not adjusted for inflation. Estimates suggest that [...]
In theory if you net out the volatility typically associated with items such as milk and gasoline prices, you get a more reliable gauge of price movements. “The CPI is based on a survey of what households are buying; the PCE is based on surveys of what businesses are selling.” The [...]
Greetings from parking lot traffic in Manhattan on what is finally a warm, sunny day that has strangely enough brought out more drivers. Walk already and take in some Vitamin D. You look like you need it! Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc, Also read Lear Capital: Financial Products [...]
Welcome back to 2017, where bad is back where it belongs, that is being oh so good. Inflation? Who cares? Rising interest rates? No harm, no foul. WTI north of $70? Fill ‘er up. Pricey tech stocks. Hit the bid, baby! Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF Get the entire [...]
Hyperbole is such a vile term. Defined as “extravagant exaggeration,” we are nothing short of drowning in it. What little is left of journalistic integrity is sacrificed daily at the altar of hyperbole. Politicians have raised their rhetoric to such deafening volumes their speech writers are at the risk [...]
A quick perusal of the financial press revealed a treasure trove of write-ups on PIMCO’s Richard Clarida, the recently named nominee to be Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board. Coverage of one Michelle Bowman, nominated the same day to serve as a governor on the Board was, however, [...]
Forget about the snowy spring weather you’re trying to avoid up north. It’s tornado season down south, that special time of the year you tune in to the local news for a quick check of the weather before heading out to battle the masses on the highways and byways. Groupon [...]
Inflation is up, and the yield curve is flattening? What gives? In bond market nomenclature, much of which is indecipherable by the design of craft fixed income traders, what we are witnessing today is a bull flattening. Long maturity Treasury yields are falling at a faster pace than short [...]
‘Tis the season for bunnies, baskets and bill auctions. Wait – one of those did not belong. And yet, April will herald Treasury bill auctions that put optimists’ posits to the test. Is the spike in short rates a technical glitch that will right itself or is there an [...]
The following is a summary of our recent FS Insider podcast, "Danielle DiMartino Booth: Problems at the Fed, More Volatility for the Markets," which can be accessed on our site here or on iTunes here. Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in [...]
How goes the business of “watching the paint dry”? As boring as the Fed planned? Maybe the stormy markets and Mother Nature are in cahoots and scheming to keep winter alive and as vicious as she’s ever been. From my snowy perch in New York, I can certainly report [...]
Dear Friends, So much for the sunny, funny, isle of Manhattan. Travel snafus related to the lovely ‘thundersnow’ unleashing her fury on New York scuttled my writing schedule, if you’ll pardon the late arrival in your inbox. Check out our H2 hedge fund letters here. PIRO4D / Pixabay Pexels / PixabayThe good news [...]
Dear Friends, Greetings from the sunny, and oft times funny, isle of Manhattan. Spring is springing, infusing the air with the promise only the changing of the seasons can induce. What a delight to bear witness to the beauty only unique New York can offer — fumes, sirens, blaring horns [...]
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