Over the past year, market bears have cautioned against bullish investments - highlighting unexplained growing valuations are fuelling asset price bubbles. This hypothesis has garnered sizeable amounts of industry attention when it comes to certain asset classes – such as those of credit, banking and sovereign markets. However, the...
While clashes with Trump may be grabbing global headlines, there is a far broader, and arguably deeper, range of factors in play when it comes to the performance of the Chinese economy this year. Risk appetite remains subdued and the economy appears to have reached the so-called “late phase”...
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned this week, in the latest World Economic Outlook report, that a number of developed economies - including Britain, Japan and the US - risk economic contractions as the balance of ageing populations hangs heavy against output generating ability. Highlighting that over coming...
Although not entirely new territory for the electric car maker, the last few weeks have been quite the roller coaster ride for Tesla. Short investors, currently in no small number, and many vocal commentators have been flagging the mighty cash flow challenges for the automobile pioneer over the past...
The majority of investors are well acquainted with benchmark analysis and selection when it comes to gauging the all-important performance of investments and investment managers. Most also watch interest rate moves closely in anticipation of future impact – helping assess competing assets’ yields, determine price forecasts, fair value, mortgage payments,...
While the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National home price index ticked up only 0.05% for the month of March 2018 the index has indicated the US property market is stable and growing – with the index up over 6.5% compared year on year. 1 This finding is further backed by recently...
Quantitative fund management is gathering momentum through 2018 – more specifically major funds are risking greater amounts of capital in quant-based strategies globally, the results of which, however, are yet to be realised. While only recently, quantitative hedge fund titan, AQR Capital, announced they will be launching their first...
Although the decision of the US Fed to raise rates by 0.25% to a target range of 1.5% to 1.75% came as little surprise to investors, it has had the power to add to a growing risk-off rhetoric. Further to this, in no small part fuelled by the political...
Although Wall Street continues to boast outperformance against competing asset classes YTD for 2018, there are signs in the market that investors are growing nervous when it comes to US equities. Posting the first quarterly loss since 2015, the end of Q1 2018 has seen the S&P stumble from...
Although still relatively niche, investment allocations based on ESG (environmental, social and governance) based motives are growing. While these investments offer investors conscience-based return alongside their monetary gains, there are solid arguments from a portfolio theory perspective to support this shift in allocations – specifically a new source of...
Seeking, at the very least, inflation-beating returns in a persistent low interest rate environment has meant fixed income investors have turned to more creative, arguably riskier, investment allocations over the past few years. Famed for their commensurate risks, US junk bonds and leveraged loans soared in volumes through 2017...
With yesterday’s announcement from President Trump of a 25% US import tariff on $60billion of Chinese goods, the spectre of a global trade war looms larger. 2 As the world’s two largest economic powerhouses go head-to-head can we expect a severe turnaround in economic growth forecasts for the near to...
All eyes are on the actions of the world’s two largest economies - the US and China - as details further unfold on import tariff policy measures. Trade tensions were further escalated last week as US President Donald Trump unveiled plans for a 25% tariff on up to $60bn...
Recently released findings from the monthly BoAML Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) suggest that although investors are yet to reach fear territory deep enough to affect allocations materially, “cracks in the bull case” are emerging.1 The main concerns have been highlighted as growing risks of global trade war, stagflation,...
Chinese policymakers are continuing to work to reform the country's financial system and meet concerns about China's ability to be able to sustain its tremendous amount of borrowing. The latest effort by policymakers is an increase in the ability of Chinese regional and local governments to issue bonds in order...
Faced with sizeable uncertainty, investors and investment managers alike often incorporate economic principles and research in formulating an opinion, and more importantly a position, in the market. However, according to newly released research from the Department of Economics of Brown University, these investors would be wise to keep the...
March 1st 2018 was the day that President Trump set into motion a contentious discussion of a potential global trade war – following his announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminium imports that would be implemented as soon as next week. President Trump announced steel tariffs of 25% and...
From start to finish February was a month of US Equity downwards pressure by many measures. Whether it be the record level of mutual fund (MF) and ETF outflows (-$42bn) and net futures selling (-$31bn) in the first three weeks of the month, or the S&P 500 ending February...
According to recent research from Goldman Sachs, trend following CTA’s have been driving recent market declines in oil – repeating a trend that materialised across Q1 of last year. 1 However, unlike 2017, this year GS argues long speculative positioning has been driven by a solid fundamental backdrop –...
Better than expected jobs data from the US released at the end of February 2018 sent hawkish speculation into overdrive – enough to send US stock markets plummeting and trigger an ongoing and deepening debate into the fortunes of the world’s largest economies over the short to medium term....
Riding on the back of dollar weakness EM currencies have been good to investors over the past year and a half. However, inflation is lurking and with it threatens to bring this buoyant EM period to its end. In addition, recent research from Capital Economics forecasts that currencies of...
Almost four years ago the US Securities and Exchange Commission and US Federal Reserve implemented capital reserve requirements such that collateralized loan obligation (CLO) sponsors would be required to invest capital in the CLOs they manage – a structural change designed to align the interests, and more importantly, the...
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