Growth BY President A Data Analysis

Last Thursday, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) released an opinion piece titled “Growth Is on the Ballot”.  The WSJ Editorial Board began the article with this quote from Lawrence Summer, former advisor to President Obama: Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc “If [Donald Trump] were elected, I would expect a [...]


Housing Has The Recession At Least 3 Years Off

Housing took center stage this past week. Housing starts, new and existing home sales, and Case-Shiller home prices gave us an idea of what the American housing market looks like. [REITs] Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Question: If you had to guess what stage of the business cycle the housing [...]


The Stock Market Could Well Determine Election Outcome

Determine Election Outcome ? Research on what determines the outcome of elections is wide and deep, ranging from whether a war is going on, to GDP growth, to social issues, and a host of others.  This year, perhaps more so than any other, the market could determine the outcome of the [...]


Which Industries Like Obama, And Which Do Not?

Today's BLS Report was quite unattractive.  Month-over-month job growth came in at 160K, well below the 207K the market expected.  Wages are stuck in low gear and are a host of other labor market indicators. Also see  Which President Wins? Looking at Some Politics Connected with Today’s American Labor Market BLS Report The [...]


Remember the Times Academics Told Us the Economy Would Collapse Without Government Spending?

Government Spending needed for growth? First, an Overview of What We Saw Recently Also see  Which President Wins? Looking at Some Politics Connected with Today’s American Labor Market Before addressing the topic of govt spending and the performance of the economy and equity markets, a brief review of recent GDP figures seems in order. GDP [...]


Does Anyone See Sadness in Recent Housing Figures?

Does Anyone See Sadness in Recent Housing Figures? Garnering much less attention than last week’s GDP report were the housing figures. In particular, we received figures on homeownership, vacancies, housing stock, and a host of other relevant indications on the state of the American housing market. Perhaps the saddest figure of the [...]


It Kind of Looks Like the American Consumer is Dead, Not Just Taking a Pause

American Consumer RIP Economic indicators are noisy, meaning that there’s a lot of movement from month to month.  There’s so much noisiness in economic indicators that it causes some market participants to downplay high frequency figures. Also see  Which President Wins? Looking at Some Politics Connected with Today’s American Labor Market Yesterday's big [...]


Do American Workers Have Anything To Complain About?

Do American Workers Have Anything To Complain About? Also see Personal incoming and spending by President Aptly summed, the American labor market is fine.  The baseline forecast suggests the remainder of 2016 will see moderate opportunity for workers to gain employment. Here are 9 charts summing up the state of American labor. American [...]


Income and Spending Suggest the American Consumer Now Believes, And a Little Bit of Politics for Fun

The recent Personal Income and Personal Spending figures provided two broad conclusions about the state of the American Consumer, American income making and spending behavior. Also Initial Claims Say We’re in Something Deeper than the Tech or Housing Bubbles First, Americans are still relatively frugal compared to recent past, although, there's some reason [...]


How are American Retail Sales Comparing?

American Retail Sales Today's retail sales figures disappointed, with a sharp downward revision for January and continued weakness in February.  Retail sales in the U.S. are now floating at just 3.1% year-on-year. The U.S. retail picture comes after Saturday's weaker-than-expected Chinese retail sales figure of 10.2% year-over-year. Question: How are American consumers [...]


Why is The Stock Market So Tough on the Fed This Time Around?

The Stock Market... It's a packed week for economic indicators.  The week includes retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, consumer and producer prices, Empire manufacturing, and consumer confidence.  That's jut the U.S. side. Although the week is packed, there's only one indicator that really matters this week.  Wednesday's [...]


China Hard Landing Story Way Oversold?

China Hard Landing - Around the end of November through the first couple weeks of December, Wall Street analysts release outlooks for the coming year. One prediction that appears to be so widespread that it receives little debate is that the China growth outlook is weakening, and growth will probably [...]

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