TopDownCharts – ValueWalk Premium

(Another) New Bull Market in Global Equities

So first of all let's just get straight into dealing with that title... Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Why did I write "(Another)" New Bull Market in Global Equities? The reason is very simple, I wrote an article in October last year, documenting the technical triggers that indicated a...

Chart Of The Week – Quarantined Cash

Stocks have been on fire from the March 23 low, climbing 30%+ and seemingly defying most fundamental logic. There have been minor pullbacks along the way, but for the most part it has been among the sharpest snapbacks the market has ever experienced. For perspective back in 2008-2009, it...

Commodity Commentary: Oil And Gold

Summary While WTI crude oil traded negative, energy stocks rallied For a number of reasons gold has been going in the opposite direction Despite the volatility and headlines, we see opportunities in commodities Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more What a few weeks it has been in the commodities...

New Asset Class Coverage In 2019

In this post I want to share with you an interesting section from our recently published 2019 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report (a summary of some of our best, worst, and most notable charts of 2019, and the ones to watch in 2020). Q4 2019 hedge...

The Best Charts of 2019

We recently published the 2019 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report - a summary of some of our best, worst, and most notable charts of 2019 (and the ones to watch in 2020). Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Already on the blog we've covered the "Charts...

Copper/Gold: Macro Inflection Reflections

I looked at this topic back in late August where I outlined the reasons why copper/gold looked to be near a turning point and why it is such a useful macro indicator. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more That article was about week off the absolute low point (at least...

Global Equities: US vs the World

This is an interesting topic for a few reasons, especially from a timing standpoint, but perhaps most interesting of all is how whenever I talk about global ex-US equities I tend to get significant push-back. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more For example, many will say that it's not...

Capital Market Assumptions: Global Equities In Focus

With all that's going on in the world right now, the constant news flow, twittering and tariffing, recession obsession, and of course a little extra market volatility here and there, it might seem strange for me to write about what is a somewhat obscure and long-term focused topic. Q2 hedge...

Are Bond Yields Too Low?

Bonds have had a dream run since bottoming late last year, particularly the longer end of the curve (I checked one popular longer-term US treasury ETF and it was up almost 30% off the low point!). Interestingly enough that followed a period of fairly miserable performance last year (mark...

Fed vs Stocks: Finding The Sweet Spot

Opinion has been extremely divided about the recent Fed rate cut. Some say it was necessary and prudent, others say it wasn't needed, and there are even those who say they're doing too little to late and rates are on their way to zero. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops...

US Margin Debt Trends: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly…

Margin debt is a funny indicator, it gets frequently used and abused by both rational cool-headed traders as well as sensationalist fear-mongers. So what's the deal with margin debt, and what (if anything) is it even telling us? Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The first chart is an old...

Inflation Surprise! (…Or Lack Thereof)

Perhaps one particularly surprising thing this year has been the lack of surprise - that is, upside surprise in inflation.  Last year central banks around the world were hiking interest rates and beginning to normalize balance sheets as sights were set squarely on upside risks to inflation.  But the...

The Policy Pivot: Global Equities

A lot of focus, talk, and frankly noise has emanated around a widely expected Fed rate cut at the end of this month. But the discerning observer will note that the Powell Pivot is actually part of a wider global monetary policy pivot. This has been a key theme...

Developed Economies Are Getting Worse

Today's chart comes from the recently launched "Top 5 Charts Of The Week" report - which is our entry-level subscription service. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The chart shows the OECD composite leading economic indicators, which I have aggregated for developed and emerging market countries (based on GDP weights).  There...

The Value Of Value Stocks

Value stocks have had a hard time in recent years, and this persistent underperformance is putting traditional and long-held ideas at risk of being thrown out and discarded. Terms like "value investing is dead" are starting to be thrown around along with the typical clichés like "new paradigm", "structural...

Global Equity PE10 Valuations

Today's chart comes from the recently launched "Top 5 Charts Of The Week" report - which is our entry-level subscription service. If you like our charts you'll love that report, and it's a good way to try us out before looking at our other services. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference,...

EM Central Banks Turning The Corner

The Fed is in focus this week, and for very good reason.  But if you look further afield you'll see that a clear global monetary policy pivot is already underway.  One good example worth a closer look is emerging markets, where the policy pivot is particularly notable. Q1 hedge fund...

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