The US dollar has had a very interesting start to 2019. Unlike equity markets which have seen a sharp rebound rally through Q1, the US dollar has found itself locked in an ever tighter trading range. As such, a key risk indicator has lit-up... or more appropriately, crunched-down. Q1 hedge [...]
Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that [...]
One key feature of the last 15 months has been the consistent declines in the global manufacturing PMI. After peaking in December 2017, the global manufacturing PMI has undergone a major slowdown, and that was a key driver behind the weakness in global markets last year (and a reflection [...]
The year is quickly getting away. Personally I've had so much go on that I can't decide whether this year feels like it's gone really fast or whether it feels like a year in one quarter! One thing I can decide on though is that it's worth taking a [...]
In this edition I take you through another 5 charts which increasingly show a clear turning point in sentiment from previous pessimism to tentative optimism on the fundamentals outlook. Indeed, while you don't want to go flippantly throwing around the term "melt-up", if these nascent signals get momentum we could [...]
Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that [...]
In this article I take you through a selection of charts which show how a golden cross signal has lit up on both the S&P 500 and across Global Equities (and what it means for the market outlook). Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc First, a quick word on definitions. A [...]
Not many people talk about commodities in the aggregate sense, i.e. as an overall asset class. Typically it's gold this or oil that, which is a shame because it is a really interesting asset class; particularly now as the core index we track is basically at a make-or-break turning [...]
These days it seems there's not a lot we can agree on, but I think there's one understanding that's close to universal, and that's the impact of the US dollar on global markets. I would even take it so far as to say the major driver for risk assets [...]
Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that [...]
In this edition I take you through 5 charts which outline how a possible reassessment of the global macro/fundamental outlook is changing among investors. From a peak in the "bull market in pessimism" to a reflation reassessment, there's signs of change afoot here, and I have a feeling more and [...]
A couple of years ago it seems I was about one of the only people seriously looking at the trends and pulse of global trade activity -- and it helped tremendously in picking the collapse in commodities and emerging markets, and their subsequent recovery. These days just about [...]
With the Fed pivot last week and the inversion of the yield curve, sentiment has swiftly surrendered to the bearish side. Indeed, it's entirely possible that the Fed even takes preemptive action and eases further e.g. with rate cuts. But here's at least a hypothetical question, what if inflation comes back [...]
In this article we explore how starkly sentiment has shifted on the fundamentals outlook. From the heights of euphoria at the beginning of last year, there now seems to be a deepening sense of fear on the fundamentals outlook. Bears will say it's the end of the cycle and [...]
I've seen a few charts floating around on global earnings revisions, and this is certainly something we track. As you might expect, we take a unique angle on this, and the chart in focus today presents a particularly unique indicator on global earnings revisions trends - and what it [...]
One of my favorite analytical techniques for generating insights on global markets is studying market breadth, and those who know me know I like to take a bit of an alternative angle, and today's chart is no exception. Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc rawpixel / Pixabay What makes today's chart [...]
Quantitative tightening has been running at full speed for almost 5 months now (and for a total period of 17 months since commencing in October 2017), and with QT finally coming front of mind for investors I thought it would be a good idea to update some of the charts [...]
With all the chatter about recessions and corrections, one could be forgiven for forgetting about one of the key concepts and tools in investing; valuations. Careful study of valuations can help identify relative opportunities, put time on your side, and help you get ahead of major market risks. Q4 hedge [...]
Here's some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar (originally posted on LinkedIn). I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc geralt / Pixabay Hope you [...]
Summary Crude oil enjoys a rare set of bullish signals after a rough end to 2018. Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc jplenio / Pixabay As the title implies, we're heading into one of the strongest parts of the year based on historical seasonal patterns. But the setup goes beyond seasonality as sentiment [...]
Here's some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar (originally posted on LinkedIn). I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc geralt / Pixabay Hope you [...]
This week we look at an important chart on the gold price outlook as a number of key themes and indicators are starting to shift for gold, and commodities more broadly for that matter. Read more... Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etcArticle by Top Down Charts
