The Fed is in focus this week, and for very good reason. But if you look further afield you'll see that a clear global monetary policy pivot is already underway. One good example worth a closer look is emerging markets, where the policy pivot is particularly notable. Q1 hedge fund [...]
The correction in crude oil has come as a shock to previously bullish traders and has rippled across global asset markets e.g. contributing to the selloff in the S&P500 and the push lower in bond yields. So what's up (or down?) with crude, and what are the likely next [...]
Here's some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar (originally posted on LinkedIn). I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Hope you enjoy! IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: For a [...]
In case you missed it, gold has finally managed to stage a decent rally. Through the turmoil and tumult of the trade war escalation, gold had been reluctant to move as US dollar strength kept a lid on things, but there's a few key moving parts that investors should [...]
Here's some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar (originally posted on LinkedIn). I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Hope you enjoy! 1. Manufacturing PMIs [...]
Bond yields have started to break down, and if today's chart is anything to go by, it's entirely possible we see a further push lower in yields. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The May round of flash PMIs brought mostly disappointment, with all the majors undershooting expectations, and falling [...]
Here's some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar (originally posted on LinkedIn). I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Hope you enjoy! 1. Developed Markets [...]
The trade-war-escalation is a decidedly negative gear shift for has been a looming "tail risk" for markets. And I use that decidedly overused term very lightly, as a tail risk is supposed to be something out of left-field, rather than something that's been a source of constant focus and [...]
Here's some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar (originally posted on LinkedIn). I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Hope you enjoy! 1. OECD Leading [...]
This article focuses on an important development for Japanese equities that investors should be aware of. Recently there have been significant outflows from Japan equity ETFs. Typically, outflows of this magnitude send a bullish contrarian signal, and throughout this article we will put forward some points that temper this [...]
Last year saw something exceedingly rare. For a period of 9 months there were exclusively rate hikes by the major central banks we monitor. But this period of tightening is turning, and now rate cuts are beginning to dominate again. If this was an important chart last year, you [...]
A lot is going on in markets right now with regards to commodities, emerging markets, and in particular - the US dollar. The moves of the next few weeks have the possibility to shape the prevailing trend of the markets for the next few months if not years, so [...]
Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that [...]
This article focuses on a composite view of the P/E ratio to look at how AEJ (Asia Ex-Japan) equities are currently trading compared to recent history, as well as bringing in some longer term context. The main objective is to consider whether there is still value in AEJ equities, [...]
Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that [...]
The US dollar has had a very interesting start to 2019. Unlike equity markets which have seen a sharp rebound rally through Q1, the US dollar has found itself locked in an ever tighter trading range. As such, a key risk indicator has lit-up... or more appropriately, crunched-down. Q1 hedge [...]
Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that [...]
One key feature of the last 15 months has been the consistent declines in the global manufacturing PMI. After peaking in December 2017, the global manufacturing PMI has undergone a major slowdown, and that was a key driver behind the weakness in global markets last year (and a reflection [...]
The year is quickly getting away. Personally I've had so much go on that I can't decide whether this year feels like it's gone really fast or whether it feels like a year in one quarter! One thing I can decide on though is that it's worth taking a [...]
In this edition I take you through another 5 charts which increasingly show a clear turning point in sentiment from previous pessimism to tentative optimism on the fundamentals outlook. Indeed, while you don't want to go flippantly throwing around the term "melt-up", if these nascent signals get momentum we could [...]
Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that [...]
In this article I take you through a selection of charts which show how a golden cross signal has lit up on both the S&P 500 and across Global Equities (and what it means for the market outlook). Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc First, a quick word on definitions. A [...]
