Capital Market Assumptions: Global Equities In Focus

With all that's going on in the world right now, the constant news flow, twittering and tariffing, recession obsession, and of course a little extra market volatility here and there, it might seem strange for me to write about what is a somewhat obscure and long-term focused topic. Q2 hedge [...]


Are Bond Yields Too Low?

Bonds have had a dream run since bottoming late last year, particularly the longer end of the curve (I checked one popular longer-term US treasury ETF and it was up almost 30% off the low point!). Interestingly enough that followed a period of fairly miserable performance last year (mark [...]


Fed vs Stocks: Finding The Sweet Spot

Opinion has been extremely divided about the recent Fed rate cut. Some say it was necessary and prudent, others say it wasn't needed, and there are even those who say they're doing too little to late and rates are on their way to zero. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops [...]


US Margin Debt Trends: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly…

Margin debt is a funny indicator, it gets frequently used and abused by both rational cool-headed traders as well as sensationalist fear-mongers. So what's the deal with margin debt, and what (if anything) is it even telling us? Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The first chart is an old [...]


Inflation Surprise! (…Or Lack Thereof)

Perhaps one particularly surprising thing this year has been the lack of surprise - that is, upside surprise in inflation.  Last year central banks around the world were hiking interest rates and beginning to normalize balance sheets as sights were set squarely on upside risks to inflation.  But the [...]


The Policy Pivot: Global Equities

A lot of focus, talk, and frankly noise has emanated around a widely expected Fed rate cut at the end of this month. But the discerning observer will note that the Powell Pivot is actually part of a wider global monetary policy pivot. This has been a key theme [...]


Developed Economies Are Getting Worse

Today's chart comes from the recently launched "Top 5 Charts Of The Week" report - which is our entry-level subscription service. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The chart shows the OECD composite leading economic indicators, which I have aggregated for developed and emerging market countries (based on GDP weights).  There [...]


The Value Of Value Stocks

Value stocks have had a hard time in recent years, and this persistent underperformance is putting traditional and long-held ideas at risk of being thrown out and discarded. Terms like "value investing is dead" are starting to be thrown around along with the typical clichés like "new paradigm", "structural [...]


Global Equity PE10 Valuations

Today's chart comes from the recently launched "Top 5 Charts Of The Week" report - which is our entry-level subscription service. If you like our charts you'll love that report, and it's a good way to try us out before looking at our other services. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, [...]


EM Central Banks Turning The Corner

The Fed is in focus this week, and for very good reason.  But if you look further afield you'll see that a clear global monetary policy pivot is already underway.  One good example worth a closer look is emerging markets, where the policy pivot is particularly notable. Q1 hedge fund [...]


OECD Composite Leading Indicators — the Global Growth Scare

Here's some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar (originally posted on LinkedIn). I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Hope you enjoy! IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: For a [...]


Gold Set On A Path To A New Bull Market?

In case you missed it, gold has finally managed to stage a decent rally.  Through the turmoil and tumult of the trade war escalation, gold had been reluctant to move as US dollar strength kept a lid on things, but there's a few key moving parts that investors should [...]


Bond Yields – Lower For Longer?

Bond yields have started to break down, and if today's chart is anything to go by, it's entirely possible we see a further push lower in yields. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The May round of flash PMIs brought mostly disappointment, with all the majors undershooting expectations, and falling [...]


ETF Flows Show Investors Fleeing Japan

This article focuses on an important development for Japanese equities that investors should be aware of. Recently there have been significant outflows from Japan equity ETFs. Typically, outflows of this magnitude send a bullish contrarian signal, and throughout this article we will put forward some points that temper this [...]


Commodities: Bull Or Bear? Charts

A lot is going on in markets right now with regards to commodities, emerging markets, and in particular - the US dollar.  The moves of the next few weeks have the possibility to shape the prevailing trend of the markets for the next few months if not years, so [...]

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