Top 5 Charts Of The Week: China, Global Trade, Reflation, And Asian FX
Here’s some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar. I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight [...]
Chart Of The Week: Investors Capitulate On The Reflation Trade
Around this time last year as we left 2017 and entered into 2018, there was widespread optimism. Whether it was the record low volatility readings, synchronized surge in the [...]
Chart Of The Week: Bear Market Warning Light Turns Yellow
The October margin debt statistics have drawn quite a stir, and for good reason. Depending on how you look at it, margin debt data can provide useful signals on [...]
Chart Of The Week: Politics, Policy, And The Chinese Bear Market
Policy and politics are issues that have great impact on the risk/return outlook across markets and geographies, but I think it’s fair to say that for a market like [...]
8 Charts On Quantitative Tightening
As quantitative tightening moves to full speed, I thought it would be a good idea to update some of the charts from the popular “7 Charts on Quantitative Tightening” [...]
Chart Of The Week: Crude Oil Vs. Energy Stocks – A Big Gap
Energy stocks have had a tough time in recent years, and have substantially lagged behind the S&P 500, as a sort of “old economy” vs. “new economy” dynamic plays [...]
Chart: EM vs DM Manufacturing PMIs
I thought this chart was really interesting and worth highlighting, particularly given I’ve been writing a lot about emerging markets recently. The reason I highlight this chart is because [...]
Chart: Crude Oil Break Down
Quick post – couple of charts here from our Global Cross Asset Market Monitor (weekly markets monitor that goes to clients). Key point: WTI crude oil prices are breaking [...]
Chart Of The Week: Equity Risk Premium – EM Is Cheap Again
It’s been a tough year for emerging markets as a perfect storm of political risk, a stronger US dollar, and slowing China growth have combined to knock them off [...]
Economic Policy Uncertainty And Global Equities
It seems over the past few years the only certainty has been rising uncertainty, and the folk at Economic Policy Uncertainty have a set of indexes which map this [...]
Global Institutional Investors Sell Stocks
The October reading of the investor confidence index from State Street dropped -3.4pts to 84.4 – the lowest reading since late 2012. Across the regions, North American institutional investor [...]
Chart: China PMI – Soft But Soft Enough?
With China’s economy under pressure on a number of fronts, the PMI takes on a new level of importance – particularly so as global markets come under pressure and [...]
The Top 10 CAPE Countries – UPDATED (Global Equity Valuations)
With the global equity market correction spreading from Emerging Markets and Europe finally over to America too, it’s tempting to ask (given the move in valuations): are global equities [...]
Chart Of The Week: U.S. Economic Optimism Running Hot
With markets breaking down around the world, it seems it’s all gone wrong and all news is bad news. But I thought I would highlight one good-news chart worth [...]
Trouble Brewing In Private Equity?
In the low yield, low interest rate, low expected return, and low liquidity premium world, cash has flooded into alternative investments such as hedge funds, infrastructure, property, and of [...]
Chart Of The Week: Death Watch
One relatively obscure technical chart pattern, known ominously as the “death cross”, has caught my attention recently. The reason is, if you look across the 70 countries we monitor, [...]
2 Key Rotations Underway In China Property
At the risk of being labelled a reductionist or accused of oversimplifying, my view is with China the key variable is property prices. In fact if I only had [...]
S&P 500 Seasonality – Year End Rally Time?
As the seasons change so to do the habits and actions of all things from the smallest critter all the way up to the wall street trader. We see [...]
Chart Of The Week: Cyclicals Vs. Defensives (Defcon?)
I noticed something particularly interesting during the stock market correction last week, and I don’t think many are paying this (enough) attention. US cyclicals vs. defensives had their biggest [...]
Chart: Global Consumer Confidence And Global Equities
One of my favorite things to do is discover and utilize somewhat obscure, new, misunderstood, or underutilized datasets. Or indeed, to look at an existing and well-understood set of data [...]
Chart: Bank CDS Watch – Stress Signs?
Here’s an interesting chart from our Global Cross Asset Market Monitor – it’s one of a series of unique and proprietary indicators that we use to help investors stay [...]
USDCNY – It’s Going To 7 [Chart]
Here’s a couple of charts on a topical and divisive subject – the outlook for the Chinese yuan. This is something I’ve spent a lot of time looking at, [...]