I looked at this topic back in late August where I outlined the reasons why copper/gold looked to be near a turning point and why it is such a useful macro indicator. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more That article was about week off the absolute low point (at least...
This is an interesting topic for a few reasons, especially from a timing standpoint, but perhaps most interesting of all is how whenever I talk about global ex-US equities I tend to get significant push-back. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more For example, many will say that it's not...
Something very interesting is happening right now in global equities, and most people have probably missed it. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more A set of unique indicators have put in some rare signals that are usually only seen at the start of a bull market. That's right, you heard...
With all that's going on in the world right now, the constant news flow, twittering and tariffing, recession obsession, and of course a little extra market volatility here and there, it might seem strange for me to write about what is a somewhat obscure and long-term focused topic. Q2 hedge...
Bonds have had a dream run since bottoming late last year, particularly the longer end of the curve (I checked one popular longer-term US treasury ETF and it was up almost 30% off the low point!). Interestingly enough that followed a period of fairly miserable performance last year (mark...
Opinion has been extremely divided about the recent Fed rate cut. Some say it was necessary and prudent, others say it wasn't needed, and there are even those who say they're doing too little to late and rates are on their way to zero. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops...
Margin debt is a funny indicator, it gets frequently used and abused by both rational cool-headed traders as well as sensationalist fear-mongers. So what's the deal with margin debt, and what (if anything) is it even telling us? Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The first chart is an old...
Perhaps one particularly surprising thing this year has been the lack of surprise - that is, upside surprise in inflation. Last year central banks around the world were hiking interest rates and beginning to normalize balance sheets as sights were set squarely on upside risks to inflation. But the...
A lot of focus, talk, and frankly noise has emanated around a widely expected Fed rate cut at the end of this month. But the discerning observer will note that the Powell Pivot is actually part of a wider global monetary policy pivot. This has been a key theme...
Today's chart comes from the recently launched "Top 5 Charts Of The Week" report - which is our entry-level subscription service. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The chart shows the OECD composite leading economic indicators, which I have aggregated for developed and emerging market countries (based on GDP weights). There...
Value stocks have had a hard time in recent years, and this persistent underperformance is putting traditional and long-held ideas at risk of being thrown out and discarded. Terms like "value investing is dead" are starting to be thrown around along with the typical clichés like "new paradigm", "structural...
Today's chart comes from the recently launched "Top 5 Charts Of The Week" report - which is our entry-level subscription service. If you like our charts you'll love that report, and it's a good way to try us out before looking at our other services. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference,...
Well, it's already H2 now, and what a year it's been so far! Following on from the original "10 Charts to Watch in 2019" and the Q1 update, here's a half-time update on the 10 charts to watch in 2019. The key purpose of this article is to update the...
The Fed is in focus this week, and for very good reason. But if you look further afield you'll see that a clear global monetary policy pivot is already underway. One good example worth a closer look is emerging markets, where the policy pivot is particularly notable. Q1 hedge fund...
The correction in crude oil has come as a shock to previously bullish traders and has rippled across global asset markets e.g. contributing to the selloff in the S&P500 and the push lower in bond yields. So what's up (or down?) with crude, and what are the likely next...
Here's some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar (originally posted on LinkedIn). I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Hope you enjoy! IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: For a...
In case you missed it, gold has finally managed to stage a decent rally. Through the turmoil and tumult of the trade war escalation, gold had been reluctant to move as US dollar strength kept a lid on things, but there's a few key moving parts that investors should...
Here's some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar (originally posted on LinkedIn). I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Hope you enjoy! 1. Manufacturing PMIs...
Bond yields have started to break down, and if today's chart is anything to go by, it's entirely possible we see a further push lower in yields. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The May round of flash PMIs brought mostly disappointment, with all the majors undershooting expectations, and falling...
Here's some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar (originally posted on LinkedIn). I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Hope you enjoy! 1. Developed Markets...
The trade-war-escalation is a decidedly negative gear shift for has been a looming "tail risk" for markets. And I use that decidedly overused term very lightly, as a tail risk is supposed to be something out of left-field, rather than something that's been a source of constant focus and...
Here's some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar (originally posted on LinkedIn). I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Hope you enjoy! 1. OECD Leading...
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