TED Spread And LIBOR-OIS: Chart

Here's a couple of interesting charts which are behaving in a boring fashion.  The first is the 3 month LIBOR-OIS spread, and the second is the TED spread.  Both are basically measures of funding stress/bank credit risk, and ever since the financial crisis have attracted as much attention as risk [...]


Global Gross Profit Margin Is On Average 28%

We have combined the financial statements of globally-listed non-financial companies into one for the past 23 years The average number of companies included in this study was 12,586 per year and as of 2017, it was 17,159 The gross profit margin has averaged 28.4% over the 23 years of this study And [...]


7 Charts On Quantitative Tightening

As the Fed is steadily progressing through its balance sheet normalization plan, it's worth checking in on a few charts that highlight the path to normalcy, and some of the potential stumbling blocks along the way.  This article provides an update and follow on from a previous post "5 [...]


Make Chinese Stocks Cheap Again – CHART

A lot has gone wrong for Chinese stocks lately with a softer economy and trade war uncertainty weighing on investor confidence. However, for value-oriented investors that can mean that the conditions are becoming right as cheaper valuations help improve the risk vs. return balance.   Read More... [REITs] Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, [...]


Chart: US 10-Year Bond Yield Seasonality

I was going through my fixed income strategy models and there were a number of really interesting charts, but I thought this one in particular was worth sharing.  It shows in the red line the average pattern of movement in the US 10 year government bond yield by business day [...]


Trade Data Bullish? CHART

Global trade growth has been something we've picked really well both going into the global trade recession in 2015/16 and the subsequent recovery and acceleration in 2016/17. It has helped raise conviction on risk management calls around commodities and emerging markets, and getting more aggressive on the growth vs [...]


DM Flash PMI vs 10 Year Bond Yields – CHART

Another bond/macro chart, here's the flash composite DM manufacturing PMI against the US 10 year bond yield. The composite DM flash PMI (we construct using Markit data and IMF GDP weights) dropped -0.5pts in August to a 14 month low of 54.2. Japan bucked the trend, up +0.2pts to [...]


Chart: DM Flash PMI vs 10 Year Bond Yields

Another bond/macro chart, here's the flash composite DM manufacturing PMI against the US 10 year bond yield.  The composite DM flash PMI (we construct using Markit data and IMF GDP weights) dropped -0.5pts in August to a 14 month low of 54.2.  Japan bucked the trend, up +0.2pts to [...]


Chart: Bond Market Volatility

Following on from yesterday's post on Cross Asset Volatility, the chart of today is a focus on bond volatility.  Specifically what we've got here is a look at the rolling annual sum of daily changes in the US 10 year treasury bond yield which exceeded varying hurdles (the smallest hurdle [...]


Chart: Cross Asset Volatility

This unassuming chart contains a wealth of information about the challenges we currently face with active asset allocation and the global macro backdrop.  Basically what it shows is an alternative measure of the average volatility across stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies.  The bottom line is volatility across asset classes [...]


Chart Of The Week: EM vs DM

This week we're looking at EM vs DM relative performance. Emerging market equities have come under pressure recently as a stronger US dollar, Fed tightening, and political risk have come into focus....   Read More... Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. [...]


Chart: S&P500 Long Term Earnings Growth Outlook

This is quite the chart - it shows the consensus estimates of the longer term earnings growth outlook for the S&P500, and it's the highest since the later stages of the dot com bubble.  But back then it was all about "the new economy" as dot com companies were [...]


Chart: Fundamentals vs Technicals

Aside from the weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm, a regular practice of mine is to survey my followers on Twitter to ask them whether they are bullish or bearish for primarily fundamental or technical reasons.  I've been tracking the results of this survey for about 2 years now and some interesting patterns [...]


Chart: US Dollar, EMFX, Asian FX, And The USDCNY

Well it's a mouthful of a title, but sometimes you just have to say exactly what's in the post and today we're looking at 4 charts-in-one... and they are about as topical as it comes.  The charts come from our weekly Global Cross Asset Market Monitor: the top left [...]


Chart: Global Equity PE10 Valuations

As the pressure comes down on global equities - particularly global Ex-US (and particularly emerging markets) - valuations have likewise come down.  But the movement in valuations is so far relatively small.  US PE10 valuations have clawed back much of the decline, while emerging market valuations have moved to new [...]


Chart: Global Equities Death Cross Breadth

Given the swiftly changing picture in global markets, this is a key chart to keep on your radar.  In fact, I like this chart so much that it actually featured in my top 10 charts to watch for 2018 back at the start of January.  What it shows is [...]


Economic Noise – CHART

Regular readers will be familiar with the "Economic Noise Index", which combines the signal from the economic policy uncertainty index and the economic surprise index to display positive vs negative economic noise. Both signals are standardized using a z-score. Anyway, reason I highlight it is the indicator has rolled [...]


Chart: Policy Uncertainty Surges In China

Every now and then you come across a chart that makes you do a double take, and I think this is one of those.  It shows the "Economic Policy Uncertainty Index" for China, and in case you need a hint - the indicator shows a spike in policy uncertainty [...]

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