Chart: US Dollar, EMFX, Asian FX, And The USDCNY

Well it's a mouthful of a title, but sometimes you just have to say exactly what's in the post and today we're looking at 4 charts-in-one... and they are about as topical as it comes.  The charts come from our weekly Global Cross Asset Market Monitor: the top left [...]

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Chart: Global Equity PE10 Valuations

As the pressure comes down on global equities - particularly global Ex-US (and particularly emerging markets) - valuations have likewise come down.  But the movement in valuations is so far relatively small.  US PE10 valuations have clawed back much of the decline, while emerging market valuations have moved to new [...]

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Chart: Global Equities Death Cross Breadth

Given the swiftly changing picture in global markets, this is a key chart to keep on your radar.  In fact, I like this chart so much that it actually featured in my top 10 charts to watch for 2018 back at the start of January.  What it shows is [...]

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Economic Noise – CHART

Regular readers will be familiar with the "Economic Noise Index", which combines the signal from the economic policy uncertainty index and the economic surprise index to display positive vs negative economic noise. Both signals are standardized using a z-score. Anyway, reason I highlight it is the indicator has rolled [...]

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Chart: Policy Uncertainty Surges In China

Every now and then you come across a chart that makes you do a double take, and I think this is one of those.  It shows the "Economic Policy Uncertainty Index" for China, and in case you need a hint - the indicator shows a spike in policy uncertainty [...]

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Chart: Gold ETF Flows Show Capitulation

Gold is under fire, and you can see it in the flows that investors are starting to capitulate.  Facing headwinds of a stronger US dollar, and rising real yields, gold has broken down through its short term uptrend line (which came after failing to break through resistance).  With futures [...]

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Chart: Credit Growth About To Surge

One of my favorite data series is the Fed senior loan officer opinion survey.  Hidden amongst the various questions and series of the report are some really useful signals and insights on both the US economy and financial markets.  Today we look specifically at commercial and industrial lending standards [...]

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Chart: Extreme Positioning In Stocks vs Bonds

As I was updating my various charts and models, something weird caught my eye.  This peculiar chart shows speculative futures positioning in equities (aggregated across all US index futures) and bonds (US 10 year treasury futures)... and most notably, the spread between them.  With bond traders the most crowded [...]

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Chart: Fundamental Sentiment Reset

This chart comes from the weekly survey I run on Twitter, which asks respondents whether they are bullish or bearish on equities and bonds for primarily fundamental vs technical reasoning.  There has been an interesting pattern in "fundamentals" sentiment, with the turnaround in bond fundamentals sentiment seeming to presage [...]

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