Is The Stock Market In A Bubble?

UPFINA's Mission: The pursuit of truth in finance and economics to form an unbiased view of current events in order to understand human action, its causes and effects. Read about our mission here. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The June PPI-FD inflation report showed mixed results. Energy inflation was [...]

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How Important Is Stock Market To Economy?

UPFINA's Mission: The pursuit of truth in finance and economics to form an unbiased view of current events in order to understand human action, its causes and effects. Read about our mission here. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Households own a large amount of stock. As of Q1 2019, [...]

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The Main Indicator That Impacts Early Fed Cut

UPFINA's Mission: The pursuit of truth in finance and economics to form an unbiased view of current events in order to understand human action, its causes and effects. Read about our mission here. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc skeeze / Pixabay As discussed in the article on the May PPI [...]

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The Big Mistake When Analyzing Corporate Debt

UPFINA's Mission: The pursuit of truth in finance and economics to form an unbiased view of current events in order to understand human action, its causes and effects. Read about our mission here. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Labor market data has been mostly good, although there have been [...]

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Is Economy Entering Recession Or Getting Out Of One?

UPFINA's Mission: The pursuit of truth in finance and economics to form an unbiased view of current events in order to understand human action, its causes and effects. Read about our mission here. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Adding to the litany of economic reports that have caused the [...]

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Stocks Forecast An 18.8% Chance Of A Recession

UPFINA's Mission: The pursuit of truth in finance and economics to form an unbiased view of current events in order to understand human action, its causes and effects. Read about our mission here. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc If the average recession causes stocks to fall 26%, then the [...]

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20 Steps To A Recession

UPFINA's Mission: The pursuit of truth in finance and economics to form an unbiased view of current events in order to understand human action, its causes and effects. Read about our mission here. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc geralt / Pixabay When the Fed starts hiking rates, it’s the beginning [...]

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Millennials Have Less Assets Than The Prior Generation

Many consumer confidence surveys depend on how people feel about their own lives since it’s what they know best. If they are asked about the economy, their answer probably tells us about their job prospects more than anything. Confidence is really high before recessions because that’s when the labor [...]

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U.S. Households Are Overly Invested In Equities

The fact that households have a large allocation to equities is viewed as a positive by some because it provides a floor for the market. Others view it as a negative because the ownership rate is unsustainably high. The logic that households need to invest in equities is the [...]

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Past & Future US Equity Performance

Everyone knows the bull market is 9 years old; it is the longest bull market ever. However, the length of the bull market is largely irrelevant because it came very close to ending. It’s arbitrary to say a bear market is a 20% decline, but not a 19% decline. [...]

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The Trade War Just Started

With the US stock market near its all-time high and having a solid year, it’s easy to miss out on the global growth deceleration. The global economy is by no means terrible, but it has seen deceleration as the global synchronized growth narrative disappeared, with emerging markets feeling a [...]

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The Myth Of Retiring Early

Some of the most widely shared articles on the internet are on the concept of FIRE. Fire stands for Financial Independence Retire Early. The basic assumption is that you hate your job, so you will be happier by saving most of your money while you are working with the [...]

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Death Of Retail Didn’t Happen

Headlines skew reality because the media’s goal is to generate attention, not get the specifics of stories correct. This isn’t to say all or even most journalism is bad; it’s simply that journalists don’t think like investors and headlines aren’t always accurate. It’s easy to misinterpret trends if you [...]

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It’s Not The End Of The World, But…

Whenever we post an article that has arguments suggesting a negative outlook based on recent trends and indicators, we receive criticism from readers who are very bullish on stocks and claim anything negative is doom and gloom. Coincidentally, content containing negative developments receives the most attention which is ironic, [...]

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Valuations Aren’t The Main Catalyst Of This Bull Market

It’s obvious to most investors with any experience that they can’t justify buying an asset just based on the recent price action alone (technical analysis aside). You don’t buy based on price; you buy based on value. The price action means nothing without context. This point needs to be [...]

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Are New Valuation Methods Valid?

Some investors believe in maintaining the use of old models because they have historical precedence; new ideas can be risky to try. One example which comes to mind is when the 1990s tech firms were valued based on eyeballs instead of earnings. Believing in new models can easily turn [...]

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Consumer & Business Leverage & Risks For Economy

When the economy is near the end of the business cycle there tends to be excess leverage taken out by businesses and consumers. The recession washes away the bad loans to get back to equilibrium. It was important for the housing market to cool off after the run in [...]

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Is Poverty Down?

It’s well known that the economy hasn’t been working for a large percentage of the middle class and majority of the lower class because real wage growth has been practically nonexistent in most sectors of the economy despite the labor market showing strength suggesting that there is not enough [...]

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2016 Was A Recession

The US economy continues to outperform the rest of the world despite the fear of trade wars and with weakness in emerging markets and Europe. The chart below, using Haver Analytics data, gives an example of the stupendous U.S. growth. [REITs] Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Source: Haver Analytics The current [...]

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Are Top 10 Companies The Reason Behind Market Growth?

The number of American public companies is in decline. We have documented this trend in What The Number Of Public Companies Means. There has been an increase in concentration in many industries due to M&A activity. The giant internet firms, which have large moats, dominate their markets because they were [...]

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Expensive Valuations & Late Cycle Indicators

Investors are trying to figure out what it will take for the bull market to reach a new record high. Records have been set in the Russell 2000, the tech sector, and the S&P 400, but the most followed index, which is the S&P 500, hasn’t broken its January [...]

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