Oil Update
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more US Crude Prod unchanged at 11.1mil BBL/Day, US Net Crude Imports fall 0.8mil BBL/Day, US Crude Inv falls 7.6mil BBL ... Read More
Chemical and Rail Activity Continue to Rise
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Chemical Activity Barometer(CAB) and Intermodal Rail traffic indicators continue higher. The CAB reflects a wide range of economic demand in... Read More
Market v Economic Speculation
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Headlines speak of rampant speculation in Bitcoin, meme-stocks like Game Stop and AMC, FAANG-type issues as indicating we are at or... Read More
Supreme Court to GSE Shareholders… “It’s Over”
9 months to the day I announced my GSE stocks sale and was lambasted online for “selling on the eve of a SCOTUS victory”, SCOTUS finally weighs in. Q1 2021... Read More
It’s Getting Expensive Out There
Still not a “bubble” but getting very pricy. Be careful… Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE is reported at 1.79%. A rise from 1.6%... Read More
Value vs Growth
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more It is an oxymoron to say Value beats Growth if one listens to the media and the countless advisors claiming it... Read More
Market Top?
‘Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Market prices despite the many predictions by professionals have never followed a cohesive logic connected to fundamentals. Prices of everything bought/sold... Read More
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Update
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Dallas Fed released the 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE of 1.67% which was higher than last month’s revised lower 1.60%. To... Read More
Politics And The S&P 500
For long-term investors? It doesn’t really matter… Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: The long-term chart shows the history of the SP500 and earnings per share from 1928... Read More
“Value” At Lows And “Momentum” At Highs?
This isn’t to say value investors switch to momentum in a bull market, it is to say that as valuations get extended we don’t need to automatically sell due... Read More
Rate Spreads Imply Lending To Widen
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Most seem not to use the T-Bill/10yr Rate Spread (Dotted Gray Line) as I do. There is a long history from... Read More
Retail Sales And Inflation
I am fearing inflation more each day. Do this exercise. For those who use instacart or door dash, go back and look at your price paid for item pre-pandemic... Read More
Traffic Picking Up
“Davidson” submits: Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The 10day TSA Passenger traffic rise is very rapid in this daily series. Now 53.4% of the 2012 trend line when... Read More
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Update
The US market is not “cheap” by any means... Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: The Baker Hughes GE Rig Count reports 6 more oil rigs working vs... Read More
Markets: How High?
“Davidson” submits: Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more How high a market can climb in any cycle has many inputs all ending in peak enthusiasm at the time, i.e.... Read More
Retail Sales Hold Strong
“Davidson” submits: Real Retail Sales report a sharp increase for Jan after a short correction following consumers stocking-up for the COVID lockdowns. The mix reflects a sharp rise in retail... Read More
Rates, Inflation, Market Valuation
“Davidson” submits: Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The CNBC commentary, from a long time NYSE trader, is “investors worried Fed has lost control of rates…markets” as rates rise.... Read More
A Stock Market Top?
“Davidson” submits: Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more There is no doubt that there have been some wild trading days and massive over-valuation in some issues the past 12mos.... Read More
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Update
he S&P is by no means in a bubble…..it also is by no means “cheap”. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: The SP500 is a 37% premium to... Read More
Robinhood or Institutions Driving Market?
A common theme is that the “Robinhood trader” is driving the market higher….but is it true? Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: Institutional Money Funds correlate more strongly... Read More
TSA Traffic
“Davidson sees this as good news. I find it troubling. I see us being stick around 35%-40% YOY traffic numbers which isn’t good. The real question here is how... Read More
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Index Update
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Household Survey Employment is reported higher by 275,000 and Light Weight Vehicle Sales SAAR(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) rises to an est... Read More
