S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Update
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Dallas Fed released the 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE of 1.67% which was higher than last month’s revised lower 1.60%. To... Read More
Politics And The S&P 500
For long-term investors? It doesn’t really matter… Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: The long-term chart shows the history of the SP500 and earnings per share from 1928... Read More
“Value” At Lows And “Momentum” At Highs?
This isn’t to say value investors switch to momentum in a bull market, it is to say that as valuations get extended we don’t need to automatically sell due... Read More
Rate Spreads Imply Lending To Widen
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Most seem not to use the T-Bill/10yr Rate Spread (Dotted Gray Line) as I do. There is a long history from... Read More
Retail Sales And Inflation
I am fearing inflation more each day. Do this exercise. For those who use instacart or door dash, go back and look at your price paid for item pre-pandemic... Read More
Traffic Picking Up
“Davidson” submits: Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The 10day TSA Passenger traffic rise is very rapid in this daily series. Now 53.4% of the 2012 trend line when... Read More
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Update
The US market is not “cheap” by any means... Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: The Baker Hughes GE Rig Count reports 6 more oil rigs working vs... Read More
Markets: How High?
“Davidson” submits: Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more How high a market can climb in any cycle has many inputs all ending in peak enthusiasm at the time, i.e.... Read More
Retail Sales Hold Strong
“Davidson” submits: Real Retail Sales report a sharp increase for Jan after a short correction following consumers stocking-up for the COVID lockdowns. The mix reflects a sharp rise in retail... Read More
Rates, Inflation, Market Valuation
“Davidson” submits: Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The CNBC commentary, from a long time NYSE trader, is “investors worried Fed has lost control of rates…markets” as rates rise.... Read More
A Stock Market Top?
“Davidson” submits: Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more There is no doubt that there have been some wild trading days and massive over-valuation in some issues the past 12mos.... Read More
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Update
he S&P is by no means in a bubble…..it also is by no means “cheap”. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: The SP500 is a 37% premium to... Read More
Robinhood or Institutions Driving Market?
A common theme is that the “Robinhood trader” is driving the market higher….but is it true? Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: Institutional Money Funds correlate more strongly... Read More
TSA Traffic
“Davidson sees this as good news. I find it troubling. I see us being stick around 35%-40% YOY traffic numbers which isn’t good. The real question here is how... Read More
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Index Update
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Household Survey Employment is reported higher by 275,000 and Light Weight Vehicle Sales SAAR(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) rises to an est... Read More
Markets Follow…They Do Not Lead
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more It never gets old when the classic investment assumptions are so thoroughly debunked by reports such as this one on Federal... Read More
S&P vs International Markets
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The St Louis Fed has issued revised US$ indices the past 12mos taking into account services as well as goods with... Read More
Money Flows Suggest Continued Investment Into US Markets
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The St Louis Fed has issued revised US$ indices the past 12mos taking into account services as well as goods with... Read More
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Update
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Value Investor Index is updated with the latest 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE inflation report. Market perception that oil prices are... Read More
Panicked Investors Missed The Rebound
From a Reader: Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more I try to send some helpful charts and facts each week. Charts are extremely helpful in getting a visual picture... Read More
NBER Says Recession Started in February….Data Contradicts
I agree 100% with Davidson. There were ZERO signs of recession in February…..zero Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: NBER calling Recession beginning Feb 2020? Weird. No evidence... Read More
Hindsight Is Always 20/20
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The most underrated tool for investors is hindsight. Hindsight as far back as one can go says buy stocks during crashes. We have... Read More
