“Davidson” submits: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Inflation is coming, buy stocks” The fact is, it is more complicated than this simple, centuries-old mantra that has been repeated... Read More
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Watching the daily interplay between Rates, the Rate Spread and the Trade Weighted US$ is not something on which business or... Read More
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Will the Fed raise rates or not. Does it matter? Every time there is a pending Fed meeting to decide on... Read More
This is the best line in this whole piece: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Perhaps, the greatest risk of MPT is in its being a mathematical model. It... Read More
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Inflation is a puzzle with many believing it derives from economic demand. It may appears so when under-inventoried factories and raw... Read More
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more US Crude Prod unchanged at 11.1mil BBL/Day, US Net Crude Imports fall 0.8mil BBL/Day, US Crude Inv falls 7.6mil BBL ... Read More
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Chemical Activity Barometer(CAB) and Intermodal Rail traffic indicators continue higher. The CAB reflects a wide range of economic demand in... Read More
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Headlines speak of rampant speculation in Bitcoin, meme-stocks like Game Stop and AMC, FAANG-type issues as indicating we are at or... Read More
9 months to the day I announced my GSE stocks sale and was lambasted online for “selling on the eve of a SCOTUS victory”, SCOTUS finally weighs in. Q1 2021... Read More
Still not a “bubble” but getting very pricy. Be careful… Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE is reported at 1.79%. A rise from 1.6%... Read More
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more It is an oxymoron to say Value beats Growth if one listens to the media and the countless advisors claiming it... Read More
‘Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Market prices despite the many predictions by professionals have never followed a cohesive logic connected to fundamentals. Prices of everything bought/sold... Read More
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Dallas Fed released the 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE of 1.67% which was higher than last month’s revised lower 1.60%. To... Read More
For long-term investors? It doesn’t really matter… Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: The long-term chart shows the history of the SP500 and earnings per share from 1928... Read More
This isn’t to say value investors switch to momentum in a bull market, it is to say that as valuations get extended we don’t need to automatically sell due... Read More
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Most seem not to use the T-Bill/10yr Rate Spread (Dotted Gray Line) as I do. There is a long history from... Read More
I am fearing inflation more each day. Do this exercise. For those who use instacart or door dash, go back and look at your price paid for item pre-pandemic... Read More
“Davidson” submits: Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The 10day TSA Passenger traffic rise is very rapid in this daily series. Now 53.4% of the 2012 trend line when... Read More
The US market is not “cheap” by any means... Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: The Baker Hughes GE Rig Count reports 6 more oil rigs working vs... Read More
“Davidson” submits: Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more How high a market can climb in any cycle has many inputs all ending in peak enthusiasm at the time, i.e.... Read More
“Davidson” submits: Real Retail Sales report a sharp increase for Jan after a short correction following consumers stocking-up for the COVID lockdowns. The mix reflects a sharp rise in retail... Read More
“Davidson” submits: Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The CNBC commentary, from a long time NYSE trader, is “investors worried Fed has lost control of rates…markets” as rates rise.... Read More
