GDP and E&P Give Mixed Signals
“Davidson” submits: The Baker Hughes Rig Count rises by 3 oil rigs leaving the level of gas rigs unchanged. With crude and refined inventories continuing to decline and $WTI holding above $100/BBL... Read More
Are Oil and The Dollar Actually Inversely Related?
“Davidson” submits: There are multiple consensus relationships which have become embedded mechanically as part of algorithmic trading. The relationships of oil prices to other economic trends are a part of... Read More
Oil, DUC’s, Retail Sales and Inflation
It’s really odd seeing the media coverage and then looking at the data. The media tells us oil companies are not drilling, the data tell us something very different.... Read More
Oil Update
The bottom line is the same as we’ve been saying here for over a year now, the risk of much higher prices materially outweighs the odds of significantly lower... Read More
“True Supply Is Well Below Normalized Demand”
Oil has fallen from the highs and settled ~$110/bbl. Many think the worst is behind us here but as the global economy recovers, we think the current supply will... Read More
Oil Situation
It isn’t good. Inventories keep falling, the SPR is at multi-decade lows and supply for multiple reasons is NOT being replaced or increased. Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and... Read More
Geopolitics Is A Harsh Reminder That The US Is The Place To Invest
Property rights are a real thing absent in many nations. Without them, you never really own anything and it can be taken away in a second. US residents and... Read More
Dear Ms. Wood, You Are 100% Wrong On Oil
It is almost as if the EV evangelists have zero idea the majority of electricity in the USD is generated by natural gas and coal meaning, without fossil fuels,... Read More
Employment, Temp Help & Vehicle Sales
“Davidson” submits: The Household Survey Employment rises 548,000, Establishment Survey rises 678,000 with unemployment lower at 3.8%. Temporary help pushes higher and Light Weight Vehicle SAAR est 14.4mil is holding... Read More
It Actually Is A Little “Different” This Time
Unprecedented stimulus leads to outcomes we’ve not seen before. Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Davidson” submits: The traditional interpretation is that declines in Real GDP always reflects a decline... Read More
EIA And Forecasts
I love the EIA for the data it provides but I have found them woefully inadequate when it comes to their forecasting and am of the opinion political forces... Read More
Media Headlines vs Fundamentals
“Davidson” submits: Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Reopening stocks suddenly take center stage vs COVID-lockdown issues in the middle of record cases. To understand what is occurring between... Read More
Can You Hear This??
That sloshing sound is the Trillions globally pumped into markets… Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: Liquidity reigns! Liquidity as reflected in the T-Bill/10yr Treas rate spread has... Read More
Stick To The US
“Davidson” submits: Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more In 2014 the data emerged which supported the recommendation that investors focus solely on US based companies. The basis for this... Read More
Inflation: Policy Matters More Than M2
“Davidson” submits: Government policy matters more for inflation than the simple interpretation of more money chasing goods. Milton Friedman said “…inflation is a monetary phenomenon”. Friedman’s observation has become embedded... Read More
The Oil Situation: The SPR Is Being Raided To Close US Production Deficit
Prices only go higher from here…. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: If the Total US Crude Inv including Strategic Petroleum Reserve(SPR), which is not routinely considered in... Read More
“Transitory”
Pay attention to the last sentence….the EU is currently hurting itself with restrictive policies that are reducing supply. The US is rapidly heading in this direction currently. Q3 2021 hedge... Read More
“Inflation Is Coming, Buy Stocks” … It’s Not That Simple
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Inflation is coming, buy stocks” The fact is, it is more complicated than this simple, centuries-old mantra that has been repeated... Read More
Market Information Hierarchy
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Watching the daily interplay between Rates, the Rate Spread and the Trade Weighted US$ is not something on which business or... Read More
Will The Fed Raise? Who Cares, They Do Not Control Them
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Will the Fed raise rates or not. Does it matter? Every time there is a pending Fed meeting to decide on... Read More
Does MPT Simply Just Produce Herd Behavior??
This is the best line in this whole piece: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Perhaps, the greatest risk of MPT is in its being a mathematical model. It... Read More
As Inflation Soars, So Does The S&P 500 Intrinsic Value
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Inflation is a puzzle with many believing it derives from economic demand. It may appears so when under-inventoried factories and raw... Read More
