“Davidson” submits: Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc In this update, the trend of the 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE was raised from 1.7% to 1.85% and the SP500 was projected forward to Dec 2020 at a 65% Premium to the Value Investor Index. At some point investor psychology becomes speculative [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The Dallas Fed 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE reported at 1.96%..slightly revised higher past 2mos. The Natural Rate is 4.90%. This leaves the SP500 27.4% above the Value Investor Index at $2,311. As stated in prior notes, the Value Investor Index is very good [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc rawpixel / Pixabay Fastenal (FAST) remains a good investment at current levels and a good general market price indicator. The long term growth of FAST has been 14% with the current dividend of 2.5%. Management’s comments with today’s earnings report indicate they see [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Understanding investment markets requires a historical perspective of past events. It is a combination of historical review of innovations, their associated human responses and subsequent pricing through market psychology. Once one has performed this type of analysis, it should be evident that [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc mohamed_hassan / Pixabay 4/4/2019: “DJ RPC Inc Raised to Overweight From Underweight by Morgan Stanley” MS double upgrade on RPC, Inc (RES) , shows that they waited for Momentum to build before analyst shifted rating-typical example how Wall Street has become permeated with short-term [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Pexels / Pixabay In the news is the "Golden Cross" which is when the 50dy moving avg crosses above the 200dy moving average. Traders like to speak of these moving avg cross-overs as if they carry market significance and the media picks up [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc rawpixel / Pixabay The Dallas Fed inflation measure, 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE, was reported at 1.84%. This is a drop of ~0.2% from recent levels of 2.02% Inflation remains controlled. The SP500 Value Investor Index(VII) for April is $2357. The SP500 priced at $2825 [...]
He leaves plenty of room here for administrative action outside Congress Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc kalhh / Pixabay The Memorandum: MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY THE SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE THE SECRETARY OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT THE SECRETARY OF VETERANS AFFAIRS THE DIRECTOR OF THE OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET THE DIRECTOR OF [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc mohamed_hassan / Pixabay The Chemical Activity Barometer(CAB) is a composite economic indicator. It is an indicator derived from data generated from all aspects of industrial, energy, import/export and consumer activity. In simple terms this indicator captures economic activity spanning every sector of the [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc geralt / Pixabay Recessions require a period of excess speculation such that we have a rise in defaults. Recent history shows that it is credit card debt which defaults first. We also see a roll-over in retail sales, personal income, Temporary Help and [...]
It’s interesting to watch the dramatic turnaround in our holding CHK. Post-Wildhorse deal the stock collapsed as oil prices fell and Wall St assumed prices would be low forever. Oil has rebounded higher and no the deal is being thought of a smart one and the stock has reacted [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Pexels / Pixabay Couple the Merrill Lynch investor survey with the Value Investor Index-2016 was a great buying opportunity as is today. The market rise from 2016 lows was more than 50% till the peak in 2018 when sentiment was this pessimistic. This [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Job Openings data has been revised from Dec 2000. The latest report nearly eliminates the dip shown in the previous data indicating that the current uptrend remains in force. Temp Help data reported last week confirms this perception. We should expect higher [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc geralt / Pixabay History from 1953 indicates that when the T-Bill/10yr Treas Rate Spread falls to 0.20% or lower a recession occurs, but not this time. The daily T-Bill/10yr Treas Rate Spread data from Jan 2012 provides insight when coupled to other economic [...]
“Davidson’ submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc geralt / Pixabay The best investment opportunities occur when market psychology leans far from the economic facts. The current period is one of these. Recession fear still dominates the media while economic trends in place since the beginnings of the current cycle in [...]
“Davidson” submits; Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc geralt / Pixabay Recession talk abounds. The media feeds fears that current conditions are leading to the next Great Depression. While some of this talk has abated, predictions of imminent recession continue to fly about at a fast and furious pace. Fundamental Investors [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Pexels / Pixabay The Value Investor Index for the SP500 shifted a little higher with the drop in recent 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE readings. The Value Investor Index is calculated with inflation in the denominator, lower inflation justifies a higher SP500. The drop in the [...]
The Oct 2018 GDP reveals a nice bump above the longer term Trailing Twelve Month(ttm) trend. GDP includes Government Exp&Inv. The Private GDP excludes Government Exp&Inv to remove the influence from discretionary government spending which skews the true economic picture. Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc geralt / Pixabay Real GDP: [...]
Something interesting is happening in oil markets. Goldman is saying $75 in 2019 and inventories took an unexpected fall this week with a draw of 8.6M barrels vs the expected 2.8M gain. Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc jplenio / Pixabay This also comes at a time when XOM has shuttered a [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The Chemical Activity Barometer(CAB) has turned higher. The last 3mos of data have been revised higher. One should have expected this knowing that this index includes chemical company stock data. The market panic of Oct-Dec 2018 drove some chemical company shares lower by [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Free-Photos / Pixabay Real Retail and Food Service Sales report, delayed due to the government shutdown, was lower than trader expectations. The media hyped this as the “biggest drop since 2009” as if this report was economically significant. It was not! The timing [...]
“Davidson” submits: Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc jplenio / Pixabay Momentum Investor algorithms connect oil prices to SP500 much more today than in past. The weekly SP500 vs. $WTI (West Texas Intermediate Oil Price) from July 2009 reflects some correlation 10yrs ago having evolved into an exaggerated correlation today. The [...]
