“Davidson” submits: Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more There is no doubt that there have been some wild trading days and massive over-valuation in some issues the past 12mos. Many seeing this activity have signaled this represents an economic cycle and stock market top. Even with fear of a...
he S&P is by no means in a bubble…..it also is by no means “cheap”. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: The SP500 is a 37% premium to the Value investor Index with 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE reported at 1.74%. Based on the history of SP500 with this...
A common theme is that the “Robinhood trader” is driving the market higher….but is it true? Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: Institutional Money Funds correlate more strongly with SP500 than Retail Funds since 2016. The weekly data shows that early 2016 the SP500 dipped ~10%. The response...
“Davidson sees this as good news. I find it troubling. I see us being stick around 35%-40% YOY traffic numbers which isn’t good. The real question here is how much higher these get before leveling off. I do not see them getting back to previous levels anytime soon which...
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Household Survey Employment is reported higher by 275,000 and Light Weight Vehicle Sales SAAR(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) rises to an est ~16mil. Both of these economic indicators thus far reflect a “V” shaped economic recovery since April lows. The Dallas Fed reports...
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more It never gets old when the classic investment assumptions are so thoroughly debunked by reports such as this one on Federal Express(FDX). In the middle of the COVID-19 FDX prices had declined below $90shr on dire forecasts of economic value destruction...
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The St Louis Fed has issued revised US$ indices the past 12mos taking into account services as well as goods with the inception 2006. A separate US$ Goods/Services Index relative to Emerging Markets differs from the more inclusive Broad Goods& Services...
“Davidson” submits: Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The St Louis Fed has issued revised US$ indices the past 12mos taking into account services as well as goods with the inception 2006. A separate US$ Goods/Services Index relative to Emerging Markets differs from the more inclusive Broad Goods& Services...
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Value Investor Index is updated with the latest 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE inflation report. Market perception that oil prices are a significant factor for inflation is not supported by recent events. That the recent shifts in oil prices have had...
From a Reader: Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more I try to send some helpful charts and facts each week. Charts are extremely helpful in getting a visual picture of what has happened. . Fact of the week below: This is why managing your own behavior is the hardest obstacle...
I agree 100% with Davidson. There were ZERO signs of recession in February…..zero Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: NBER calling Recession beginning Feb 2020? Weird. No evidence for this call in Feb. but for inverted yield curve. Employment was rising, debt obligations had very low delinquencies, Retail...
“Davidson” submits: Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The most underrated tool for investors is hindsight. Hindsight as far back as one can go says buy stocks during crashes. We have a actual record dating from the establishment of the 1st stock market, 1602 in Amsterdam. There have been more than...
This is a great hour long discussion on oil Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more lalabell68 / Pixabay We here at ValuePlays have been bullish on oil for the past year or so. Much of the reasoning we’ve given is also in this presentation (plus a lot more).
“Davidson” submits: Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Not all markets are equal. Advisors typically recommend that investors balance portfolios globally. Now that sufficient history is available one needs to question this routine recommendation. Market history from 2008’s ‘Great Recession’ is instructive. Intl Markets as represented by the MSCI...
“Davidson” submits: Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Dallas Fed reported the 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE at 2.00%, revised lower from the 2.06% Oct report. Inflation has remained close to or at 2% since 2011. The SP500 priced at $3,150 this morning reflects a premium of 32% to...
When rig counts have fallen ~25% and your still producing record amounts of oil, a weekly decline of a few rigs is meaningless Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Davidson” submits: In the face of a 25% fall in the Baker Hughes/GE Rig Count, US Crude Production rises to 12.9mil...
“Davidson” submits: Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Chemical Activity Barometer(CAB) reported 122.45 with positive revisions for past 3mos. The CAB reflects industrial weakness due to recent strong US$ as capital leaves China in response to US tariff initiatives. Job Openings indicate that this series is more closely...
“Davidson submits: Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Identifying the evolving policy shifts with the US Housing market is important in anticipating the impact to economic activity. The MCAI Index(Mortgage Credit Availability Index) introduced in 2012 with inception date of Jan 2004 captures the impact of the Sub-prime lending...
“Davidson” submits: Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more US Household Survey reported a rise of 241,000 while vehicle sales estimates appear to be holding steady. Real Personal Income recorded a new high. The Dallas Fed reported the 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE at 2.06% which showed a revised and slightly...
So, I got a question on PG&E on today’s podcast and gave my two cents on it. Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more I am also attending the Distressed Investing Conference on December 2nd in NYC that Peter Chapman is putting on. annca / Pixabay These conferences are amazing and the...
“Davidson” submits: Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Daily details matter, especially during periods of shifting market psychology. Inversion in the T-Bill/10yr Treasury rates occurred May 2019 after a tumultuous period of rapidly falling 10yr Treasury rates beginning Nov 2018 with the onset of the Chinese attempt to take...
“Davidson” submits: Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Follow up-many call for fiscal stimulus, i.e. govt spending on infrastructure. Not recognized is that regulation reduction costs nothing and has a significant positive fiscal stimulus that lasts years. Economic indicators continue to confound those expecting a recession simply because we have...
The top investors are reading ValuewalkPremium.
