If the economy is so booming, why did retail sales (ex-autos) decline -0.2% in February? Searching for the usual suspects to blame for unwanted economic data – the weather created a bad hair day, the sun got in consumer’s eyes – Bank of America Merrill Lynch looks at a seasonally consistent phenomenon: tax refunds. Causation for slowing retail sales being based on a one-time factor such as a tax refund results in the bank analysts not to consider this a trend changing event. The impact of online retail sales aside, it is those who are dependent on a tax refund…
BAML: Ignore Latest Retail Sales Set Back
Mark Melin
Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.