The Policy Pivot: Global Equities

A lot of focus, talk, and frankly noise has emanated around a widely expected Fed rate cut at the end of this month. But the discerning observer will note that the Powell Pivot is actually part of a wider global monetary policy pivot. This has been a key theme [...]

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There’s A Lot Of Value In Cyclical Commodity Stocks, But You Have To Use A Different Valuation Method

During his recent interview with Tobias, small cap value manager Eric Cinnamond discusses how value investors can find opportunites in cyclical commodity stocks but it’s important to use a different valuation method. Here’s an excerpt from the interview: Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Image source: YouTube Video Screenshot Eric Cinnamond: [...]

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Does Huge Buybacks Guarantee Stocks Profits?

Over the past dozen months or so, companies in the U.S. have significantly increased their buybacks spending, i.e., buying back their own shares. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc We have already explained buybacks phenomenon in older articles, however, we would like to explain this again: "Buyback or share repurchase is [...]

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Strategies To Reduce Crash Risk In Stocks

Because equities are much riskier than high-quality bonds, the vast majority of the risk of a conventional 60 percent equity/40 percent bond portfolio is equity risk. Here’s the simple math demonstrating the point. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Goumbik / Pixabay Well-diversified equity portfolios have volatility of about 20 percent, [...]

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The Fed Could Do Nothing

“Davidson” submits: Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The interest rate chart of 10yr, 3mo Treas, Rate Spread & Fed Funds Daily shows the current Fed policy of raising FFunds rate to equal T-Bill rates after T-Bill rates rose about 25bps(0.25%). This deviated from 70yrs of Fed history of keeping FFund rates [...]

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Developed Economies Are Getting Worse

Today's chart comes from the recently launched "Top 5 Charts Of The Week" report - which is our entry-level subscription service. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The chart shows the OECD composite leading economic indicators, which I have aggregated for developed and emerging market countries (based on GDP weights).  There [...]

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Christine Lagarde’s Forthcoming Baptism By Fire

The timing of Christine Lagarde’s scheduled replacement of Mario Draghi as head of the European Central Bank (ECB) has to remind one of a prescient cover that The Economist magazine ran in 2006 when Ben Bernanke took over from Alan Greenspan as Federal Reserve Chairman. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, [...]

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Investors Are Grossly Underestimating The Fed

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc If you think the Fed may only lower rates by 50 or even 75 basis points, you are grossly underestimating them. Currently, the December 2019 Fed Funds [...]

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Euclidean 2Q19 Letter: Forecasting Uncertainty

Euclidean Technologies Management letter to investors for the second quarter ended June 30, 2019, titled, "Forecasting Uncertainty." Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc In this quarter’s letter, we discuss Euclidean’s continuing research on forecasting companies’ future earnings. This research builds on our previous work showing how machine learning can be [...]

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Low-Volatility Investing Works – Sometimes

The superior performance of low-volatility (and the related factor of low-beta) stocks was first documented in the 1970s – by Fischer Black (in 1972), among others – even before the size and value premiums were “discovered.” The low-volatility anomaly (i.e., lower risk stocks outperformed higher risk stocks) has been [...]

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If There’s A Wall Street Analyst Hammering A Company, Investors Really Need To Know Why Before Taking The Other Side

During his recent interview with Tobias, Bill Brewster who runs Sullimar Capital Group says, if there’s a Wall Street analyst hammering a company, investors really need to know why, before taking the other side. Here’s an excerpt from the interview: Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Image source: YouTube Video [...]

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The 8 Ways Urban Demographics Are Changing

Cities are what keep the global economic machine humming. Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Over 80% of the world’s economic output is derived from activities in cities – and more specifically, it’s estimated that 60% of GDP growth occurs in just the top 600 urban centers. Given the above, it’s [...]

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Government Debt Has Driven Total Debt Growth In The US

Since 2001, US household debt as a % of GDP has remained at about the same level Corporate debt has increased a bit While gov’t debt as a % of GDP has doubled since 2001 Get instant access to Dr. Stotz's proven '9 Valuation Mistakes' cheat sheet! Get access now! Article by Andrew [...]

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Are Financial Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts Accurate?

Watch the video with Andrew Stotz or read the research below. This post shows some of the findings from Andrew’s dissertation for his PhD in Finance. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Let’s review the academic-style research format we use at A. Stotz Investment Research. We start with a question. Then [...]

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Mapping The Major Bitcoin Forks

The emergence of Bitcoin took the world by storm through its simplicity and innovation. Yet, plenty of confusion remains around the term itself. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc The Bitcoin blockchain—not to be confused with the bitcoin cryptocurrency—involves a vast global network of computers operating on the same distributed [...]

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Ray Dalio: Paradigm Shifts – Buy Gold

One of my investment principles is: Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops. Over my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I have [...]

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What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing

There are 2,208 billionaires on earth, according to Forbes. But only three are rich enough to qualify as “centi-billionaires”—worth $100 billion or more. Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc Amazon (AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos is #1. Microsoft founder (MSFT) Bill Gates is #2. #3 will probably surprise you. It’s not super-investor Warren Buffett. It’s [...]

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