“Davidson” submits:
Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
The Chemical Activity Barometer(CAB) reported 122.45 with positive revisions for past 3mos. The CAB reflects industrial weakness due to recent strong US$ as capital leaves China in response to US tariff initiatives. Job Openings indicate that this series is more closely related to manufacturing employment and shifts in the US$ than other indicators. The Trucking Tonnage Index is more closely related to general employment, retail sales and personal income trends but one can see some relationship to the CAB but not as pronounced to the US$ as Job Openings.
Overall the CAB remains on trend having reflected a spurt 2016-2018 as the US$ declined and moved sideways with the US$ turn higher. This report is an uptick from the previous month and just below the high of 123.1 of Sept 2018. Other indicators suggest the CAB should make new highs the next 6mos with additional economic expansion. US companies have displayed decent flexibility adapting to US$ strength thru “Lean Mfg” techniques.
