Here’s a great interview with Ray Dalio at Bloomberg in which he discusses China, Europe, US Inflation, and his investment strategy. Near the end of the interview (12:48) Dalio says, “In order to be successful in the markets you have to be an independent thinker”.
Dalio: OK. Nobody in their heads has all the right answers. Right. There’s a range of thinking. We all think differently. And to be able to have an idea of meritocracy in which people can be very straight forward with each other… and then together work on finding out what’s true by understanding the art of thoughtful disagreement, is very powerful.
Because in order to be successful in the markets, or in order to be successful as an entrepreneur you have to be an independent thinker. Because the consensus is built into the price in the markets. So you have to be an independent thinker and be right. That’s true as an entrepreneur, you have to be an independent thinker and be right. You don’t know if you’re right!
The greatest risk. One of the greatest tragedies of man is people holding in their heads wrong opinions that they’re confident about and they don’t put out and stress test them. So what am I talking about? What’s the problem of being radically truthful and radically transparent with each other. It may be uncomfortable for some people and I say get used to it because it’s effective! So what’s the problem with being radically truthful and radically transparent to bring in the best ideas from independent thinking? It improves the probability of being right!
You can watch the full interview here:
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The Acquirer’s Multiple® is the valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates.
It examines several financial statement items that other multiples like the price-to-earnings ratio do not, including debt, preferred stock, and minority interests; and interest, tax, depreciation, amortization.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is calculated as follows:
Enterprise Value / Operating Earnings*
It is based on the investment strategy described in the book Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations, written by Tobias Carlisle, founder of acquirersmultiple.com.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from The Magic Formula® Earnings Yield because The Acquirer’s Multiple® uses operating earnings in place of EBIT.
Operating earnings is constructed from the top of the income statement down, where EBIT is constructed from the bottom up. Calculating operating earnings from the top down standardizes the metric, making a comparison across companies, industries and sectors possible, and, by excluding special items–earnings that a company does not expect to recur in future years–ensures that these earnings are related only to operations.
Similarly, The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from the ordinary enterprise multiple because it uses operating earnings in place of EBITDA, which is also constructed from the bottom up.
Tobias Carlisle is also the Chief Investment Officer of Carbon Beach Asset Management LLC.
He's best known as the author of the well regarded Deep Value website Greenbackd, the book Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014, Wiley Finance), and Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012, Wiley Finance). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Articles written for Seeking Alpha are provided by the team of analysts at acquirersmultiple.com, home of The Acquirer's Multiple Deep Value Stock Screener.
All metrics use trailing twelve month or most recent quarter data.
* The screener uses the CRSP/Compustat merged database “OIADP” line item defined as “Operating Income After Depreciation.”
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