Dan Ariely: 3 Simple Tricks To Help Investors Overcome Their Internal Biases
The Acquirer's Multiple2021-05-14T03:07:16-04:00
We just listened to a great podcast with Dan Ariely being interviewed by Shane Parrish at The Knowledge Project. During the interview Ariely provides investors with three tricks that can help overcome internal biases and change subconscious defaults to more of a conscious state of mind which in turn lead to better financial decisions.
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Here is an excerpt from that interview:
Shane Parrish: Is there anything that you do specifically that allows you to step inside your ego a little bit [when it comes to making better decisions] that we can walk away with?
Dan Ariely:
- One simple recommendation is to think about yourself as an advisor, not about your own interest [decision]. What would you advise somebody like you to do? When you advise somebody external then you’re not as influenced by your own biases. You can do better!
- Another one is to think about something in the long-term. What would happen if you had to make a decision about a thousand of those things. What decision would you make? It’s sometimes easy to say, “Oh I’m making this [decision] just for one time”. But what if this was the standard decision that you would make.
- The third one is – what would happen if this was a larger decision? Would you still make the same one?
By both thinking about it not as a one time but as a multiple time, and not as small decision but as a large decision you bring it into context that is more extensive and you’re less likely to basically give yourself a discount and say – “We’re just doing it once”.
You can listen to the entire podcast here:
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Article by Johnny Hopkins, The Acquirer's Multiple
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The Acquirer's Multiple
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is the valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates.
It examines several financial statement items that other multiples like the price-to-earnings ratio do not, including debt, preferred stock, and minority interests; and interest, tax, depreciation, amortization.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is calculated as follows:
Enterprise Value / Operating Earnings*
It is based on the investment strategy described in the book Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations, written by Tobias Carlisle, founder of acquirersmultiple.com.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from The Magic Formula® Earnings Yield because The Acquirer’s Multiple® uses operating earnings in place of EBIT.
Operating earnings is constructed from the top of the income statement down, where EBIT is constructed from the bottom up. Calculating operating earnings from the top down standardizes the metric, making a comparison across companies, industries and sectors possible, and, by excluding special items–earnings that a company does not expect to recur in future years–ensures that these earnings are related only to operations.
Similarly, The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from the ordinary enterprise multiple because it uses operating earnings in place of EBITDA, which is also constructed from the bottom up.
Tobias Carlisle is also the Chief Investment Officer of Carbon Beach Asset Management LLC.
He's best known as the author of the well regarded Deep Value website Greenbackd, the book Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014, Wiley Finance), and Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012, Wiley Finance). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Articles written for Seeking Alpha are provided by the team of analysts at acquirersmultiple.com, home of The Acquirer's Multiple Deep Value Stock Screener.
All metrics use trailing twelve month or most recent quarter data.
* The screener uses the CRSP/Compustat merged database “OIADP” line item defined as “Operating Income After Depreciation.”
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