Depression Scenario = S&P 500 At 900, Gold Up 40%: Source

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Mark Melin
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Updated on

The most likely scenario for 2016 is for continued low growth and low inflation, notes multi-asset research from Source, but in a 31 page report consideration for stagflation and recession as well as boom times – and the appropriate portfolio mix for each situation – is outlined, but a depression scenario cannot be ruled out. Economy and its probability paths will drive markets in 2016 Considering probability paths for economic activity, and the resulting stock market reactions, the institutional report titled “Beyond the madding crowd” cited five central probability paths, each assigned a likelihood. The “central scenario” sees low growth…

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Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.