Anyone Surprised? Employment Weak, Gov't Employment Gaining Strength

Last month we reported that the 203K employment growth figure shown last month was more of a peak than the beginning of a liftoff for the U.S. labor market. Based upon this forecast, it comes as no surprise that January’s employment report – up 74K over the prior month – is sharply below what simple moving-average-type analysts thought would happen. At the same time of the weakening employment report, the unemployment rate came in much better than expected at 6.7%. What is the story? Well, most blame the weather, while others point to government policies like Obamacare. Although these reasons…