Golden Cross vs Death Cross – Neither Has Fundamental Meanings

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valueplays
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Recession

“Davidson” submits:

Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Recession
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In the news is the “Golden Cross” which is when the 50dy moving avg crosses above the 200dy moving average. Traders like to speak of these moving avg cross-overs as if they carry market significance and the media picks up the mantle as it results in higher viewership. Like most key trading discussions, the focus is wrong-headed. The “Death Cross’ was equally meaningless in Dec.

The fact is the SP500 is rising as fundamentals continue to convince investors that Dec 2018 swoon was a misperception of economic conditions. We should expect higher equity prices due to fundamentals continuing to provide upside surprises and interest rates to rise as investors shift out of fixed income and back into equities.

Golden Cross

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Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.