During his recent interview with Bloomberg, Howard Marks explains why investors should think in terms of risk/reward and not good idea/bad idea. Here’s an excerpt from the interview:
Marks: After Milken and others arrived in 77-78, the new way of thinking was well it’s not a great company but the promised rate of interest is enough to compensate for the risk.
And for the last 45 years, and I think for the rest of time we don’t think of good idea/bad idea, we think risk/return, risk/return, how risky is it, is the promised return adequate to compensate for the risk. And that’s very important.
So the point is that the people who started to do this early… I was lucky to be asked to form a high yield bond fund by Citibank in ’78. The people who started doing it earlier could find places that people were saying oh no we wouldn’t touch that, that’s low grade.
And where you could get a high return without taking much risk. That was kind of a free lunch. Efficient markets tend to cause free lunches to go away but it was great to get there early.
You can watch the entire discussion here:
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The Acquirer’s Multiple® is the valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates.
It examines several financial statement items that other multiples like the price-to-earnings ratio do not, including debt, preferred stock, and minority interests; and interest, tax, depreciation, amortization.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is calculated as follows:
Enterprise Value / Operating Earnings*
It is based on the investment strategy described in the book Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations, written by Tobias Carlisle, founder of acquirersmultiple.com.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from The Magic Formula® Earnings Yield because The Acquirer’s Multiple® uses operating earnings in place of EBIT.
Operating earnings is constructed from the top of the income statement down, where EBIT is constructed from the bottom up. Calculating operating earnings from the top down standardizes the metric, making a comparison across companies, industries and sectors possible, and, by excluding special items–earnings that a company does not expect to recur in future years–ensures that these earnings are related only to operations.
Similarly, The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from the ordinary enterprise multiple because it uses operating earnings in place of EBITDA, which is also constructed from the bottom up.
Tobias Carlisle is also the Chief Investment Officer of Carbon Beach Asset Management LLC.
He's best known as the author of the well regarded Deep Value website Greenbackd, the book Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014, Wiley Finance), and Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012, Wiley Finance). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Articles written for Seeking Alpha are provided by the team of analysts at acquirersmultiple.com, home of The Acquirer's Multiple Deep Value Stock Screener.
All metrics use trailing twelve month or most recent quarter data.
* The screener uses the CRSP/Compustat merged database “OIADP” line item defined as “Operating Income After Depreciation.”
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